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Rugby Super Rugby
Final 60 – 5
Hurricanes logo

Hurricanes vs Chiefs

Chiefs logo

Final: 60 – 5

Picks locked at Jun 19 · 06:15 GMT+0000 7 picks recorded · 7 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Hurricanes 60–5 Chiefs

6 of 7 AIs leaned Hurricanes — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Hurricanes 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
60–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 23b8e51722eb1474…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 07:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 1. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 1, in this order): h2h

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5727,
        "sport": "rugby",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Super Rugby",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T07:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 07:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chiefs",
        "home": "Hurricanes"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:45:03+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

1 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 1 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Hurricanes 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Hurricanes W

As of my training data (through September 2024), the Hurricanes and Chiefs are both competitive Super Rugby franchises. Without access to li...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Hurricanes W

The Hurricanes have been the tournament's most explosive attacking side (100 tries this season) and arrive with a settled, largely unchanged...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Hurricanes W

The Hurricanes have demonstrated strong form, including a decisive 57-21 victory over the Blues in the semi-finals. Their home advantage at...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Hurricanes W

Hurricanes hold a strong historical home record against the Chiefs in Super Rugby, often exploiting set-piece and attacking width advantages...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Hurricanes W

This prediction is based solely on my training data up to its last update, as no live access is available for this future event in 2026. His...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chiefs L

Based on training data, the Chiefs have historically held a slight edge over the Hurricanes in Super Rugby encounters. While specific recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Hurricanes W

Based on training data through October 2025, the Hurricanes have strong home form and a historically competitive edge at home against the Ch...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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