Dordoi Bishkek vs Ilbirs

Final: 1 – 1

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 18:54 GMT+0000 36 picks recorded · 13 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    2cf0dbbb9db5d3db…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1288,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Ilbirs",
        "home": "Dordoi Bishkek"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:53:50+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Both teams to score ?	Spread ?	Asian handicap ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	62% Dordoi Bishkek V	58% Under 2.5 W	48% Dordoi/Dordoi V	64% No L	55% Dordoi Bishkek L	60% Dordoi Bishkek -0.5 V
Match winner ? 62% Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi Bishkek is a historically dominant Kyrgyzstani club with superior infrastructure and playing budget compared to Ilbirs. Home advantag... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 58% Under 2.5 Kyrgyzstani Premier League matches historically feature lower goal volumes than top European leagues, with typical averages around 2.2–2.4 g... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 48% Dordoi/Dordoi Dordoi Bishkek winning both halves (HT/FT) is the most likely outcome given their superiority, but not dominant. A 1–0 halftime lead followe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 64% No Ilbirs, as the visiting underdog against a superior team, will likely adopt a defensive setup focused on containment rather than creating at... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi Bishkek as home favorite should win this match, but a -1 spread (Dordoi winning by exactly 2+ goals) requires consistent offensive do... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% Dordoi Bishkek -0.5 An Asian handicap of -0.5 (Dordoi needing to win by 1+ goal) aligns with the home team's expected margin. Dordoi's superior resources and ho... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	78% Dordoi Bishkek V	62% over L	59% home/home V	57% no L	71% Dordoi Bishkek V	65% home -1.5 V
Match winner ? 78% Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi Bishkek have historically dominated Kyrgyz football and Ilbirs remain a lower-table side. Home advantage and squad quality point stro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 62% over Matches involving Ilbirs tend to be open with multiple goals conceded. Dordoi's attacking style at home pushes games above 2.5 goals on aver... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 59% home/home Dordoi typically take control early and maintain the lead. Strong home record makes home/home the most probable HT/FT outcome. Pattern holds... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 57% no Dordoi frequently keep clean sheets against weaker opposition like Ilbirs. Defensive organization at home reduces the chance both teams scor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 71% Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi are expected to win by multiple goals given the quality gap. Home -1 spread captures the likely margin. Training data shows repeated... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 65% home -1.5 Expected scoreline favors Dordoi winning by two or more goals. Asian line at -1.5 offers value on the stronger side. Squad disparity support... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	80% Dordoi Bishkek V	65% Over 2.5 Goals L	70% Dordoi Bishkek/Dordoi Bishkek V	70% No L	70% Dordoi Bishkek -1 V	68% Dordoi Bishkek -1.5 V
Match winner ? 80% Dordoi Bishkek Based on training data through 2025-09, Dordoi Bishkek has historically been one of the strongest teams in the Kyrgyzstan Premier League, co... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 65% Over 2.5 Goals My training data up to 2025-09 indicates that Dordoi Bishkek regularly scores multiple goals, especially when facing teams from the lower ha... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 70% Dordoi Bishkek/Dordoi Bishkek My training knowledge through 2025-09 indicates that Dordoi Bishkek, as a dominant team, typically establishes an early lead against weaker... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 70% No According to my training data through 2025-09, Dordoi Bishkek typically boasts a robust defense, making it difficult for less potent attacki... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 70% Dordoi Bishkek -1 My internal knowledge base through 2025-09 suggests Dordoi Bishkek often secures comfortable victories against Ilbirs and similar lower-rank... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 68% Dordoi Bishkek -1.5 Based on my training data up to 2025-09, Dordoi Bishkek regularly demonstrates a significant quality advantage over Ilbirs. This often trans... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Dordoi Bishkek V	52% over L	50% home_home V	53% yes W	51% Dordoi Bishkek V	52% home_-0.25 V
Match winner ? 55% Dordoi Bishkek Based on training data through 2025-09, Dordoi Bishkek has historically been the stronger team in this fixture, often securing wins at home.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Training data suggests that matches involving Dordoi Bishkek often see a moderate number of goals, with a slight tendency towards the over 2... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 50% home_home Dordoi Bishkek is expected to start strong and maintain their dominance throughout the match. My training data suggests they are most likely... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 53% yes Both teams have shown the ability to score in their respective matches, but also concede goals. This suggests a game where both Dordoi Bishk... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Dordoi Bishkek Given Dordoi Bishkek's historical dominance and likely superior form, they are favored to win by at least one goal. However, Ilbirs can be r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 52% home_-0.25 Dordoi Bishkek is the favored side, and a handicap of -0.25 reflects this slight edge. They are expected to at least avoid defeat and possib... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	65% Dordoi Bishkek V	55% Over 2.5 L	55% Dordoi Bishkek / Dordoi Bishkek V	60% No L	55% Dordoi Bishkek -1 V	55% Dordoi Bishkek -0.75 V
Match winner ? 65% Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi Bishkek are historically the stronger side in this Kyrgyz Premier League matchup, especially at home. Ilbirs are a younger, less expe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 2.5 Matches involving Dordoi at home tend to have goals, as they are strong offensively. Ilbirs can be leaky defensively, which could contribute... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 55% Dordoi Bishkek / Dordoi Bishkek Dordoi typically start strong at home and are likely to lead at halftime. They are expected to maintain or extend the lead in the second hal... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 60% No Dordoi's defense is generally solid at home, while Ilbirs struggle to score against strong opposition. The head-to-head record typically fav... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Dordoi Bishkek -1 Given Dordoi's home strength and historical margins, a -1 spread is plausible but not certain. If Dordoi win by exactly one goal, the bet pu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Dordoi Bishkek -0.75 A -0.75 Asian handicap means half the stake on -0.5 and half on -1. If Dordoi win by 1, half wins and half pushes; if by 2+, full win. This... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Dordoi Bishkek 6/6	Over 2.5 2/6	Dordoi/Dordoi 1/6	No 4/6	Dordoi Bishkek 3/6	Dordoi Bishkek -0.5 2/6