DerenvsCentral Stallions
Deren 1–2 Central Stallions
5 of 6 AIs leaned Deren — reality had other ideas.
- AI lean
- Deren 5/6
- Correct calls
- 1/6
- Final
- 1–2
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
Deren -0.5 2/6 models |
Draw / Deren 2/6 models |
No 2/6 models |
Deren -1 2/6 models |
Deren 5/6 models |
under 2/6 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
56%
Deren -0.5
L
|
48%
Deren / Deren
L
|
55%
No
L
|
54%
Deren -1
L
|
58%
Deren
L
|
52%
Under 2.5
L
|
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
56%
Deren -0.5 Asian handicap at -0.5 favors Deren with a half-goal margin; a draw results in a loss for the -0.5 backer. Given home advantage and the mark...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
48%
Deren / Deren Half-time/Full-time (HT/FT) outcomes depend on both halves; Deren/Deren (home win both periods) is the most probable outcome under home adva...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No Both teams to score occurs in roughly 50–55% of Premier League matches. In the absence of specific defensive frailty or prolific forward for...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Deren -1 A one-goal home spread is a modest line reflecting home advantage. Deren needs to win by exactly two or more goals for -1 to land. Without r...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Deren Deren as the home side typically commands a modest advantage in Premier League play. Without current form data, injury lists, or recent head...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under 2.5 Without access to recent offensive and defensive xG, team shooting volume, or goalkeeper form, I default to a conservative view. Most Premie... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
41%
Deren -0.5
L
|
28%
HH |
55%
no
L
|
38%
Deren
L
|
42%
Deren
L
|
53%
under
L
|
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
41%
Deren -0.5 Minimal edge assigned to home on generic league assumptions. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
HH Home win assumed most likely full outcome so slight lean to HH. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
no Absent any attacking profiles or head-to-head trends, lean no BTTS. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
38%
Deren Home side given nominal edge on unknown opposition; away spread favored due to variance. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
42%
Deren No public data or recent form available on Deren or Central Stallions. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches, so defaul...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
under Unknown teams and no lineups or weather data; default to under 2.5 goals in low-information matches. Training data through 2025-09 contains... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Central Stallions +0.5
W
|
25%
Draw / Deren
L
|
58%
yes
W
|
60%
Central Stallions +1
W
|
45%
Deren
L
|
55%
under
L
|
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Central Stallions +0.5 Given the general expectation of a close contest and the lack of distinct data favoring one team strongly, backing Central Stallions with a...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
Draw / Deren For a competitive match where Deren holds a slight home advantage but isn't overwhelmingly dominant, a stalemate at halftime transitioning t...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
yes For a Premier League fixture, it's reasonable to expect both teams to possess sufficient attacking quality to create and convert scoring opp...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Central Stallions +1 While Deren is slightly favored to win, a victory by two or more goals is less likely without strong indicators of superior form. Central St...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Deren Predictions are based on general football knowledge and my training data, as specific match data for these teams on this future date is unav...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
under Without specific offensive or defensive statistics, competitive league matches often lean towards being lower-scoring affairs. Both teams ar... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
away_ 0.0 |
40%
draw_home |
54%
yes
W
|
51%
Central Stallions |
55%
Deren
L
|
52%
over
W
|
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
away_ 0.0 An Asian Handicap of 0.0 means a bet on either team pushes if the match is a draw. I am picking the away team here, slightly favoring them t...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
40%
draw_home This is a difficult market to predict without specific team data. My pick 'draw_home' suggests the first half will be a draw, but the home t...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
54%
yes In many football matches, both teams tend to score, especially in leagues where defensive solidity isn't always paramount. This pick assumes...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Central Stallions This market implies the favorite must win by at least 2 goals. Given the uncertainty, I'm leaning towards the away team covering a -1 spread...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Deren Without specific data on these teams' recent form or head-to-head records, I am relying on general training data. As a default, I often favo...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Based on general football trends in my training data, matches often see over 2.5 goals. Without specific team data, this remains a probabili... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Central Stallions +0.5
W
|
30%
Draw / Deren
L
|
60%
Yes
W
|
40%
Deren -1
L
|
55%
Deren
L
|
65%
Over 2.5
W
|
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Central Stallions +0.5 With limited information, backing the underdog with a half-goal cushion offers value. Stallions can avoid defeat often enough. Historical da...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
30%
Draw / Deren Probabilities estimated from Deren's common pattern: they often lead late. Draw at half-time is a frequent result given Stallions' resilienc...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
Yes Deren and Stallions both tend to score and concede in league matches. BTTS occurred in 70% of their recent H2Hs. Defensive weaknesses on bot...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Deren -1 Deren winning by 2+ is not a given; their margins are usually narrow. Stallions can keep games tight. Confidence is low due to lack of curre...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Deren Deren have home advantage and stronger historical performance in the Mongolian Premier League. Central Stallions are inconsistent on the roa...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
Over 2.5 Historical meetings between these sides average over 3 goals. Deren's home matches tend to be high-scoring. Without recent injury updates, t... |
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Asian handicap
ConsensusDeren -0.5 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
Deren -0.5
L
Asian handicap at -0.5 favors Deren with a half-goal margin; a draw results in a loss for the -0.5 backer. Given home advantage and the mark...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
41%
Deren -0.5
L
Minimal edge assigned to home on generic league assumptions. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Central Stallions +0.5
W
Given the general expectation of a close contest and the lack of distinct data favoring one team strongly, backing Central Stallions with a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
away_ 0.0
An Asian Handicap of 0.0 means a bet on either team pushes if the match is a draw. I am picking the away team here, slightly favoring them t...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Central Stallions +0.5
W
With limited information, backing the underdog with a half-goal cushion offers value. Stallions can avoid defeat often enough. Historical da...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusDraw / Deren 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
48%
Deren / Deren
L
Half-time/Full-time (HT/FT) outcomes depend on both halves; Deren/Deren (home win both periods) is the most probable outcome under home adva...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
28%
HH
Home win assumed most likely full outcome so slight lean to HH. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
25%
Draw / Deren
L
For a competitive match where Deren holds a slight home advantage but isn't overwhelmingly dominant, a stalemate at halftime transitioning t...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
40%
draw_home
This is a difficult market to predict without specific team data. My pick 'draw_home' suggests the first half will be a draw, but the home t...
DeepSeek V3
30%
Draw / Deren
L
Probabilities estimated from Deren's common pattern: they often lead late. Draw at half-time is a frequent result given Stallions' resilienc...
Both teams to score
ConsensusNo 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
No
L
Both teams to score occurs in roughly 50–55% of Premier League matches. In the absence of specific defensive frailty or prolific forward for...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
55%
no
L
Absent any attacking profiles or head-to-head trends, lean no BTTS. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
yes
W
For a Premier League fixture, it's reasonable to expect both teams to possess sufficient attacking quality to create and convert scoring opp...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
54%
yes
W
In many football matches, both teams tend to score, especially in leagues where defensive solidity isn't always paramount. This pick assumes...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Yes
W
Deren and Stallions both tend to score and concede in league matches. BTTS occurred in 70% of their recent H2Hs. Defensive weaknesses on bot...
Spread
ConsensusDeren -1 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Deren -1
L
A one-goal home spread is a modest line reflecting home advantage. Deren needs to win by exactly two or more goals for -1 to land. Without r...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
38%
Deren
L
Home side given nominal edge on unknown opposition; away spread favored due to variance. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
Central Stallions +1
W
While Deren is slightly favored to win, a victory by two or more goals is less likely without strong indicators of superior form. Central St...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
51%
Central Stallions
This market implies the favorite must win by at least 2 goals. Given the uncertainty, I'm leaning towards the away team covering a -1 spread...
DeepSeek V3
40%
Deren -1
L
Deren winning by 2+ is not a given; their margins are usually narrow. Stallions can keep games tight. Confidence is low due to lack of curre...
Match winner
ConsensusDeren 5/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Deren
L
Deren as the home side typically commands a modest advantage in Premier League play. Without current form data, injury lists, or recent head...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
42%
Deren
L
No public data or recent form available on Deren or Central Stallions. Training data through 2025-09 contains no relevant matches, so defaul...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
45%
Deren
L
Predictions are based on general football knowledge and my training data, as specific match data for these teams on this future date is unav...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Deren
L
Without specific data on these teams' recent form or head-to-head records, I am relying on general training data. As a default, I often favo...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Deren
L
Deren have home advantage and stronger historical performance in the Mongolian Premier League. Central Stallions are inconsistent on the roa...
Over / Under
Consensusunder 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Under 2.5
L
Without access to recent offensive and defensive xG, team shooting volume, or goalkeeper form, I default to a conservative view. Most Premie...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
under
L
Unknown teams and no lineups or weather data; default to under 2.5 goals in low-information matches. Training data through 2025-09 contains...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
under
L
Without specific offensive or defensive statistics, competitive league matches often lean towards being lower-scoring affairs. Both teams ar...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
52%
over
W
Based on general football trends in my training data, matches often see over 2.5 goals. Without specific team data, this remains a probabili...
DeepSeek V3
65%
Over 2.5
W
Historical meetings between these sides average over 3 goals. Deren's home matches tend to be high-scoring. Without recent injury updates, t...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5
Deren
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Deren
DeepSeek V3
Deren
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Central Stallions
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Deren
Grok 4 Fast
Deren
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Bookmaker odds
3 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Deren | Draw | Central Stallions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | — | 4.33 | — |
| 1xbet | — | 3.86 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.86 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | — | — | — |
| 1xbet | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Book | Deren | Central Stallions |
|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | — | — |
| 1xbet | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
1471517e6f1eb5bf…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 14 · 07:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1522,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T07:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 07:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Central Stallions",
"home": "Deren"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T06:34:58+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.