Football
FIFA World Cup
Upcoming · in 221h 49m
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar
Kickoff · Wed, Jun 24 · 19:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
89b69469880fd7dc…
- Sport
- Wed, Jun 24 · 19:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft · correct_score
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-15T13:10:54+00:00",
"event": {
"id": 399,
"sport": "football",
"league": "FIFA World Cup",
"starts_at": "2026-06-24T19:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:00:00 GMT",
"venue": null
},
"teams": {
"home": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"away": "Qatar"
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"home": 1.57,
"draw": 4.33,
"away": 7
},
"extra_markets": {
"totals": [
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.01
},
{
"point": 2.25,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": 2.25,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.75
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.76
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.73
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.79
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.04
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.77
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.01
},
{
"point": 2.25,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.02
},
{
"point": 2.25,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.78
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 2.01
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.88
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 2.01
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 1.82
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.99
}
],
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.15
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 5.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.46
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.1
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.51
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 5.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.57
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.55
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.55
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.55
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.1
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.57
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.55
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.53
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.1
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.52
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.56
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.51
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.51
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.51
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.51
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.15
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 5.78
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 6.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.57
}
],
"h2h_lay": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Qatar",
"price": 7.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"price": 1.59
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.5
}
]
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line."
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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Ⓟ
Implied probability · live
Polymarket: tournament odds
What real money is betting on each team to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
no market
Qatar
to win World Cup
0.1%
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Bookmaker odds
40 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Draw | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 1.54 | 3.95 | 5.78 |
| Draftkings ↗ | 1.56 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 1.50 | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| Betmgm | 1.50 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Betfair Exchange UK | 1.57 | 4.30 | 6.60 |
| Betfair Exchange EU | 1.57 | 4.30 | 6.60 |
| Betclic FR | 1.51 | 3.95 | 6.10 |
| Betfred | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| BetOnline | 1.54 | 4.15 | 7.00 |
| Betrivers | 1.51 | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| Bovada | 1.57 | 4.05 | 5.75 |
| Boylesports | 1.55 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Casumo | 1.51 | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| Codere It | 1.61 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Coral | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Everygame | 1.57 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.50 | 3.95 | 6.75 |
| Gtbets | 1.54 | 4.12 | 6.28 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Leovegas | 1.51 | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| Leovegas Se | 1.51 | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| Livescorebet | 1.50 | 3.95 | 6.50 |
| LowVig | 1.54 | 4.15 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.78 | 5.70 |
| MyBookie | 1.52 | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| Onexbet | 1.57 | 4.12 | 6.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Pmu | 1.50 | 3.95 | 6.50 |
| Skybet | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.55 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Sport888 | 1.53 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| Tipico | 1.52 | 3.90 | 5.70 |
| Unibet | 1.52 | 4.05 | 6.40 |
| Unibet Nl | 1.54 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Unibet Se | 1.54 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Unibet | 1.54 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Virginbet | 1.50 | 3.95 | 6.50 |
| Winamax | 1.46 | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| Winamax | 1.42 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.3 | 1.78 | 2.02 |
| Betmgm | 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.77 |
| William Hill | 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| BetOnline | 2.5 | 2.01 | 1.85 |
| Betrivers | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Bovada | 2.3 | 1.80 | 2.05 |
| Casumo | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Codere It | 2.5 | 1.98 | 1.71 |
| Grosvenor | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Gtbets | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.75 |
| Leovegas | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| LowVig | 2.5 | 2.01 | 1.85 |
| MyBookie | 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| Onexbet | 2.5 | 2.03 | 1.81 |
| Pmu | 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.73 |
| Unibet Nl | 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Unibet Se | 2.5 | 2.04 | 1.79 |
| Book | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Qatar |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -1.0 @ 1.99 | +0.8 @ 2.02 |
| BetOnline | -1.0 @ 2.01 | +1.0 @ 1.85 |
| Bovada | -1.0 @ 2.00 | +0.8 @ 2.05 |
| Gtbets | -1.5 @ 2.52 | +0.5 @ 2.44 |
| LowVig | -1.0 @ 2.01 | +1.0 @ 1.85 |
| MyBookie | -1.0 @ 1.88 | +1.0 @ 1.83 |
| Onexbet | -1.5 @ 2.54 | +1.5 @ 1.53 |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Pinnacle
Betclic
Betfair Ex
Betfair Ex
Betfred
Betmgm
Betonlineag
Betrivers
Bovada
Boylesports
Casumo
Codere It
Coral
Draftkings
Everygame
Fanduel
Grosvenor
Gtbets
Ladbrokes
Leovegas
Leovegas Se
Livescorebet
Lowvig
Marathonbet
Mybookieag
Onexbet
Paddypower
Pmu
Skybet
Smarkets
Sport888
Tipico
Unibet
Unibet Nl
Unibet Se
Unibet
Virginbet
Williamhill
Winamax
Winamax
Bosnia & Herzegovina Qatar
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