Bars vs Kara-Balta

Final: 7 – 0

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 18:58 GMT+0000 30 picks recorded · 15 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    4864107bedfbdbd4…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1291,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kara-Balta",
        "home": "Bars"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:58:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?	Asian handicap ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Spread ?	Both teams to score ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	55% Over 2.5 W	62% Bars W	62% Bars +0.5 V	45% Bars/Bars V	58% Bars -1 V	51% Yes L
Over / Under ? 55% Over 2.5 Central Asian football tends toward moderate-to-open play with average goals per match around 2.5–3.0. Bars as home side typically generates... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% Bars Bars are the home side with typical home advantage in Central Asian football. Without access to current 2026 season form, lineups, or recent... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 62% Bars +0.5 Bars +0.5 (Bars win or draw) is favored by home advantage and typical win probabilities. Kara-Balta as away underdogs rarely cover a -0.5 ha... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 45% Bars/Bars Bars leading at half-time and full-time is the most likely double result, supported by home advantage and attacking setup. However, without... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Bars -1 Bars at home with -1 Asian handicap (needing a 2+ goal win) is a modest overlay. Home advantage and attacking intent support a winning margi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% Yes Both teams in Central Asian Premier League fixtures typically score in roughly half of matches. Bars at home will likely attack; Kara-Balta... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% over W	55% Bars L	53% home-0.5 V	32% home/home V	48% Bars V	51% yes L
Over / Under ? 52% over Limited information on these sides. Training data indicates league matches between lesser-known teams trend toward over 2.5 goals about 52%... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Bars Bars at home in a Premier League fixture against Kara-Balta. Training data through 2025-09 shows home sides win roughly 55% of similar leagu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 53% home-0.5 Bars favored at home on Asian handicap; training knowledge shows home sides win or draw about 53% in comparable fixtures. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 32% home/home Home/home is the single most probable HT/FT outcome per historical league averages in training data through 2025-09. Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Bars Home team expected to cover a -1 spread less than half the time given lack of current form or lineup data. Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% yes Both teams likely to score in open matches based on average league scoring patterns from training data up to 2025-09. Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Under 2.5 Goals L	40% Bars W	60% Kara-Balta +0.5 V	22% Draw/Bars V	85% Kara-Balta +1 V	52% No W
Over / Under ? 55% Under 2.5 Goals Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), matches between less-profiled teams or in leagues without high-sco... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 40% Bars Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), home advantage is a significant factor, especially in leagues wher... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% Kara-Balta +0.5 Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), the Asian Handicap of 'Kara-Balta +0.5' implies Kara-Balta wins or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 22% Draw/Bars Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), and expecting a tight H2H battle, a Draw at Half-Time followed by... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 85% Kara-Balta +1 Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), while Bars is slightly favored for a win (H2H), winning by a margi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 52% No Based on general football knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), aligning with a prediction of Under 2.5 goals, a 'Both Teams To Sc... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% over W	65% Bars L	60% home_0.0 V	50% home_home V	58% Bars V	52% yes L
Over / Under ? 55% over Premier League matches often feature a moderate number of goals. Without specific team offensive/defensive stats, I predict a slight tendenc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 65% Bars Based on my training data, 'Bars' is generally a stronger team than 'Kara-Balta' in the Premier League. Without specific recent form or line... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% home_0.0 A neutral handicap of 0.0 favors the stronger team. Bars are expected to win, making this a favorable bet. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 50% home_home The most probable outcome is that Bars will lead at halftime and win the match. This reflects their anticipated dominance throughout the gam... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Bars Given Bars' expected superiority, they are likely to cover a -1 handicap. This pick assumes Bars will win by at least two goals. Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 52% yes Both teams are likely to concede and score in a typical Premier League fixture. I predict a slight chance that both teams will find the net. Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	45% over 2.5 W	55% Bars W	50% Bars -0.75 V	40% Bars/Bars V	40% Bars -1 V	55% no W
Over / Under ? 45% over 2.5 Goals are typically low in this league with many matches under 2.5. Both teams have limited attacking output. Based on historical averages,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Bars Bars have home advantage and generally stronger form in the Kyrgyz Premier League. Kara-Balta have struggled away and lack depth. Training d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 50% Bars -0.75 Bars' expected win margin is around 1 goal, making -0.75 a fair line. Both sides have similar probability due to lack of precise data. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 40% Bars/Bars Bars are likely to lead at halftime and maintain the lead. Draw/Bars is next plausible if they start slowly. Other outcomes are unlikely bas... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% Bars -1 Bars are favorite but not overwhelmingly strong. A single goal margin is likely, making Bars -1 risky. Kara-Balta +1 offers better value giv... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% no Kara-Balta often fail to score away from home. Bars have kept clean sheets in recent home matches. BTTS no is a common outcome in such fixtu... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	over 2/5	Bars 5/5	home-0.5 1/5	Bars/Bars 2/5	Bars -1 2/5	yes 2/5