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MLB Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Awaiting result · 975h 40m ago
Baltimore Orioles logo

Baltimore OriolesvsKansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore has superior recent form with a 3-2 record in their last 5 matches and conceded only 14 runs versus Kansas City's 26 allowed. The...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Baltimore Orioles

I prefer the Orioles straight-up: Kyle Bradish has been deeper and better at run suppression this year while Noah Cameron is higher variance...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a slightly better away record (16-28) compared to the Orioles' home record (23-22). Additionally, the Royals have won their...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore's recent form shows better defensive results with fewer runs conceded. Kansas City has been scoring more but also allowing more. H...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Baltimore Orioles

Based on general MLB principles and provided recent form, the Baltimore Orioles are slightly favored due to home-field advantage and a margi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Kansas City Royals

Given the information available, and predicting far in advance, the Baltimore Orioles are generally expected to be a significantly stronger...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Baltimore Orioles

Orioles have home field advantage and strong recent form (3-2 last 5), while Royals also at 3-2 but on the road. Starting pitching likely fa...

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Bookmaker line: Baltimore Orioles 61%

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 9.5

Kansas City has scored 39 runs in 5 games (7.8 runs/game), a high-volume offensive profile, while Baltimore's recent stretch saw 21 runs (4....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over

I lean over 8.5: both teams average around 4–4.6 runs per game and Cameron's season ERA (mid-to-high 4s) makes him liable to give up multipl...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have relatively high ERA (Royals 4.83, Orioles 4.38), indicating potential for multiple runs. The Royals have scored 39 runs in t...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams average high run totals in recent games. Royals offense has been potent while Orioles allow moderate scoring. Neutral weather pro...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Over 9.5

The Kansas City Royals have shown a high-scoring trend in their last five games, both offensively (39 runs scored) and defensively (26 runs...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Predicting game totals this far in advance without knowing the starting pitchers is highly speculative. However, with a general expectation...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have been scoring well recently — Royals avg 7.8 runs/game last 5, Orioles 4.2. However, pitching matchups are uncertain from tra...

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Bookmaker line: 9.0 · Over 51%

Spread

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Baltimore's defensive solidity (14 runs conceded in 5 games) and home-field advantage with extra rest support a narrow cover at -1.5. Kansas...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

I take Baltimore -1.5 at a slim edge because Bradish's propensity for longer, low-run starts increases the chance of a multi-run margin, and...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

Given the Royals' slightly better away record and recent form, they are expected to cover the -1 spread. The Orioles' recent losses and the...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Orioles hold a modest edge at home with superior recent run prevention. Royals road form is mixed. The run-line value sits near even with ho...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Given a slight lean towards the Baltimore Orioles for the moneyline due to home advantage and better defensive form, picking them to cover t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Kansas City Royals

Assuming the Orioles are favored, the spread of -1 would typically be for them to win by more than one run. However, based on the slightly w...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Orioles are at home and have slightly better rest, but run line is a big ask. Royals have been potent offensively, so covering -1.5 is uncer...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 5.5

Early-innings scoring in baseball is heavily dependent on starting-pitcher quality and early at-bat execution. Baltimore's recent defensive...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Baltimore Orioles

For the first five innings I favor Baltimore: Bradish's recent pattern of going deep and limiting runs makes it more likely the Orioles hold...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a slightly better away record and have won their last two games, suggesting they may have the edge in the first five innings...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Baltimore Orioles

Early-game edges track overall team quality; Baltimore's home defense should limit Kansas City through five innings. Starting-pitcher matchu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Baltimore Orioles

The first five innings outcome is heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Without specific pitching matchups for July 2026, I lean towa...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Kansas City Royals

Without knowing the starting pitchers, predicting the first five innings is difficult. However, the general strength projected for the Oriol...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Baltimore Orioles

Early innings often favor the home team and the starting pitcher. Orioles likely have the better starter based on 2025 training data, giving...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Baltimore Orioles

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Baltimore Orioles

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Baltimore Orioles

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Baltimore Orioles

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Kansas City Royals

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Kansas City Royals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Baltimore Orioles

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1174–953 · 55%
-756.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 888–889 · 50%
-647.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1254–1273 · 50%
-1,087.7u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1251–1309 · 49%
-1,000.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1024–1101 · 48%
-938.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 999–1087 · 48%
-885.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book Baltimore Orioles Draw Kansas City Royals
Draftkings 1.64 — 2.30
Book Line Over Under
Draftkings 9.0 1.95 1.88
Book Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2ba1f011ea111bb6…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 12 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 11647,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-11T23:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 11 Jul 2026 23:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 39,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 26
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 14
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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