Arba Minch Kenema vs Suhul Shire
Kickoff · Mon, Jun 15 · 12:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
d405457f133ae173…
- Sport
- Mon, Jun 15 · 12:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1833,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Suhul Shire",
"home": "Arba Minch Kenema"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-14T06:16:17+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
58%
Arba Minch Kenema |
62%
Under 2.5 |
56%
No |
52%
Arba Minch Kenema |
54%
Arba Minch Kenema -0.5 |
48%
Arba Minch Kenema / Arba Minch Kenema |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Arba Minch Kenema Both teams appear to be from Ethiopian football based on naming conventions, but neither is part of the actual Premier League. This match is...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Under 2.5 Without reliable squad data, injury reports, or recent match statistics, I default to the empirical observation that lower-tier or less prom...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
56%
No With no attacking or defensive metrics, I assume both-teams-to-score is less likely than one team dominating or one team being significantly...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Arba Minch Kenema Spreads at -1 require the home team to win by at least 2 goals. Home advantage typically provides modest support (roughly 50–55% of matches)...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
Arba Minch Kenema -0.5 Asian handicap at -0.5 (home team effectively needs to avoid a loss) aligns better with home advantage than a -1 spread. The home team typic...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
48%
Arba Minch Kenema / Arba Minch Kenema Half-time/full-time outcomes are highly fragmented when form is unknown. Home team winning both halves is the single most likely scenario un... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
58%
Arba Minch Kenema |
53%
over |
52%
no |
55%
Arba Minch Kenema |
57%
home -0.5 |
41%
home/home |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema are the home side in this Ethiopian Premier League fixture and hold a presumed edge based on typical home advantage in the...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Ethiopian league matches between mid-table sides often feature open play leading to three or more goals. Limited rest or defensive organizat...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
no Home side likely controls the match and limits clear chances for the visitors. Lower league quality often produces one-sided affairs where o...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Arba Minch Kenema Home advantage and presumed quality gap make a -1 spread on Arba Minch Kenema the logical selection. Away side unlikely to keep the margin u...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
57%
home -0.5 Asian handicap favors the home side given the venue and lack of contrary information on Suhul Shire. A narrow home win is the base case. Tra...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
41%
home/home Home team expected to take an early lead and maintain control through the second half. Ethiopian league games rarely see dramatic comebacks... |
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Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
35%
Arba Minch Kenema |
60%
Under 2.5 |
55%
No |
45%
Suhul Shire +1 |
53%
Arba Minch Kenema |
30%
Draw/Draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
35%
Arba Minch Kenema Without specific recent form or squad information for 2026, I lean towards a slight home advantage for Arba Minch Kenema in this Premier Lea...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under 2.5 In the absence of contemporary data regarding the attacking or defensive capabilities of either Arba Minch Kenema or Suhul Shire for 2026, I...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No Consistent with the expectation of a lower-scoring game, it is plausible that at least one team will fail to score. This often correlates wi...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
Suhul Shire +1 Without current information on team strengths for 2026, predicting Arba Minch Kenema to win by a margin of two or more goals is highly specu...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
Arba Minch Kenema Assuming an Asian Handicap 0.0 (Draw No Bet) due to the unspecified line, I marginally favor the home team, Arba Minch Kenema. This is based...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
30%
Draw/Draw Given the lack of current team form and tactical information for 2026, predicting both half-time and full-time outcomes is highly speculativ... |
|||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
45%
Arba Minch Kenema |
55%
over |
52%
yes |
45%
Arba Minch Kenema |
50%
away_+0.25 |
35%
draw_draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Arba Minch Kenema Based on training data, Arba Minch Kenema typically performs better at home, and their historical performance suggests a slight edge over Su...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Training data indicates that matches involving these teams, particularly when Arba Minch Kenema is at home, tend to be moderately scoring. I...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Given the historical scoring tendencies and the fact that both teams can concede, the probability of both teams scoring is slightly higher....
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema is predicted to win, but not by a margin of two goals. The spread of -1 suggests a closer contest than a comfortable home...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
away_+0.25 The odds suggest a very close match, with a slight lean towards the away team with a small handicap. This pick accounts for the possibility...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
draw_draw Given the lack of specific team form and the tendency for both teams to play cautiously, a draw at halftime and potentially at full-time is... |
|||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
45%
Arba Minch Kenema |
50%
Over 2.5 |
40%
Yes |
60%
Away +1 |
55%
Away +0.5 |
30%
Draw/Draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Arba Minch Kenema Based on training data until October 2025, Arba Minch Kenema typically has home advantage in the Ethiopian Premier League but lacks consiste...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
50%
Over 2.5 Typical Ethiopian Premier League matches have moderate scoring, but without specific stats for these teams, a balanced probability is most a...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
40%
Yes Without reliable form data, both teams scoring is less likely given typical lower-scoring trends in the league. The baseline probability lea...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Away +1 Given the uncertainty, it's safer to assume Suhul Shire will not lose by more than one goal. The away team is likely to be competitive, maki...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Away +0.5 The away team is expected to be slightly undervalued due to lack of information. The +0.5 handicap covers a draw or win, which seems plausib...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
30%
Draw/Draw With no strong form indicators, a low-scoring stalemate at halftime and fulltime is the most likely single outcome among the nine possibilit... |
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|
Consensus |
Arba Minch Kenema 6/6 |
Under 2.5 3/6 |
No 3/6 |
Arba Minch Kenema 3/6 |
home -0.5 1/6 |
Draw/Draw 2/6 |
|
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Bookmaker odds
11 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Arba Minch Kenema | Draw | Suhul Shire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | 2.84 | — |
| Bet365 ↗ | — | 2.75 | — |
| 10bet | — | 2.80 | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | 2.81 | — |
| Betano | — | 2.85 | — |
| Betfair | — | 2.80 | — |
| Betvictor | — | 2.80 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 2.80 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.81 | — |
| Superbet | — | 2.85 | — |
| William-hill | — | 2.62 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — | — |
| Bet365 ↗ | — | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — | — |
| Betano | — | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Superbet | — | — | — |
| William-hill | — | — | — |
| Book | Arba Minch Kenema | Suhul Shire |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — |
| Bet365 ↗ | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — |
| Betano | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Arba Minch Kenema Suhul Shire
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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