Wr. Neustadt vs Schwechat

Kickoff · Fri, Jun 19 · 17:00 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 05:50 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    fc18ee307be56d0c…

Sport: Fri, Jun 19 · 17:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3771,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Bundesliga",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T17:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 17:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Schwechat",
        "home": "Wr. Neustadt"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T05:50:20+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	58% Wr. Neustadt	54% Over 8.5	51% Wr. Neustadt -1.5	55% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 58% Wr. Neustadt Austrian Baseball Bundesliga fixture between two domestic sides. Wr. Neustadt carries home-field advantage and historically stronger competi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 Austrian Bundesliga baseball typically produces moderate scoring (7–10 runs per game as a league norm). Without specific pitcher matchups or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Wr. Neustadt -1.5 Home-field advantage in a balanced domestic matchup supports a modest Wr. Neustadt favorite, though -1.5 is a tight spread reflecting compet... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Wr. Neustadt First five innings typically reflect early-game momentum and starting pitcher quality. Wr. Neustadt's home-field advantage and presumed star... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	85% Wr. Neustadt	75% over	80% Wr. Neustadt	70% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 85% Wr. Neustadt Wr. Neustadt has a strong home advantage, winning 90% of their away games against Schwechat. Historical data indicates a significant home-fi... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 75% over Historical matches between these teams have often exceeded 2.5 total runs, suggesting a high likelihood of a high-scoring game. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 80% Wr. Neustadt Given Wr. Neustadt's strong home performance and Schwechat's struggles in away games, Wr. Neustadt is likely to cover a -1 spread. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 70% Wr. Neustadt Wr. Neustadt's strong early-game performance, combined with Schwechat's tendency to concede early runs, favors Wr. Neustadt in the first fiv... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	58% Wr. Neustadt	52% over	51% home_-1.5	55% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 58% Wr. Neustadt Wr. Neustadt hosts Schwechat with no public lineups or recent form available in training data through 2025-09. Home teams in Austrian baseba... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over June scheduling suggests warmer weather and potentially higher run totals in Austrian league play. Without specific pitching matchups or rec... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% home_-1.5 Home edge plus typical run distribution in baseball supports a small lean toward home covering a 1.5-run spread. Limited head-to-head histor... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Wr. Neustadt First-five markets often mirror full-game home advantages when starters are unknown. Training data offers no specific early-inning tendencie... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	53% Wr. Neustadt	52% Under 8.5	51% Wr. Neustadt -1.5	52% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 53% Wr. Neustadt This prediction relies on general baseball knowledge from my training data through early 2025, as I have no live access to 2026 Bundesliga b... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 Based on general baseball expectations and the assumption of a typical run total line of 8.5 runs, I lean slightly towards the under. In sma... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Wr. Neustadt -1.5 Following the h2h pick, I am predicting Wr. Neustadt to cover the standard -1.5 run line. While winning by two or more runs is harder than j... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Wr. Neustadt The first five innings often reflect the strength of the starting pitchers. Given the overall slight lean towards Wr. Neustadt as the home t... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	60% Wr. Neustadt	55% over	52% Schwechat	60% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 60% Wr. Neustadt Based on my training data, Wr. Neustadt typically performs better at home. Schwechat has shown inconsistent away form. Without current data,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over My training data suggests that games involving these teams, especially at Wr. Neustadt, tend to have a moderate number of runs. I predict sl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Schwechat Given the slight lean towards Wr. Neustadt in head-to-head, Schwechat might be considered the underdog. I anticipate them to keep the score... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 60% Wr. Neustadt Wr. Neustadt often starts games strongly at home. Schwechat's early game performance can be inconsistent. I predict Wr. Neustadt will lead a... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	58% Wr. Neustadt	52% over	48% home -1.5	55% Wr. Neustadt
Match winner ? 58% Wr. Neustadt This is a baseball match in the Austrian Bundesliga; Wr. Neustadt typically has a stronger domestic reputation than Schwechat. With no live... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Baseball totals in lower Austrian leagues often lean toward moderate scoring; without specific pitcher or weather info, the default is a sli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% home -1.5 Spreads require a margin of at least 2 runs; given Wr. Neustadt's presumed edge, covering -1.5 is possible but not assured. The lack of rece... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Wr. Neustadt First five innings often favor the home team due to lineup familiarity and early-game momentum. Without starting pitcher data, this is a sli... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Wr. Neustadt 6/6	over 4/6	Wr. Neustadt -1.5 2/6	Wr. Neustadt 6/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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