MMA

Upcoming · in 89h 41m

Weili Zhang vs Mackenzie Dern

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 02:00 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 24 · 05:54 GMT+0000 20 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    5d7dc74f72f998e0…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 28 · 02:00 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Method of victory · Goes the distance · Round group
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 271,
        "sport": "mma",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MMA",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T02:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 02:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Mackenzie Dern",
        "home": "Weili Zhang"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:54:44+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 4.5,
            "home": 1.22
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.22,
                    "outcome": "Weili Zhang"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Mackenzie Dern"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "method_finish",
        "goes_distance",
        "round_group"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ? book: Weili Zhang 82%	Method of victory ?	Goes the distance ?	Round group ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 60-87 -43.6u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 61-78 -31.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 30-28 -13.4u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 291-335 -245.0u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 408-497 -409.9u	72% Weili Zhang ~1.22	58% Decision	62% Yes	45% R3
Match winner ? 72% Weili Zhang Weili Zhang is the heavy favorite at 1.22 implied probability (~82%), but market is likely overvaluing her at that price given Dern's striki... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.22 Edge: -10.0% Method of victory ? 58% Decision Both fighters are technical strikers with strong wrestling; early finishes are uncommon in this matchup style. Zhang's control and Dern's wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Goes the distance ? 62% Yes Given the technical, grapple-heavy nature of this matchup and both fighters' durability, the fight is more likely to reach decision than end... Unlock reasoning · Pro Round group ? 45% R3 If the fight goes to decision, it will likely be competitive and tightly contested, favoring later rounds. Early round finishes (R1–R2) are... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 24-15 -3.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 201-179 -49.0u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Method of victory ? No pick on this market. Goes the distance ? No pick on this market. Round group ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 340-335 -236.4u	75% Weili Zhang ~1.22	60% Decision	70% Yes	65% Rounds 3-4
Match winner ? 75% Weili Zhang Zhang Weili is a two-time former strawweight champion with a dominant record in the division. Despite her recent loss to Valentina Shevchenk... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.22 Edge: -7.0% 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Method of victory ? 60% Decision Both fighters are well-rounded, with Zhang having a strong striking game and Dern possessing exceptional grappling skills. Their skills may... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Goes the distance ? 70% Yes Both fighters have shown durability and have a history of fights going the distance. Zhang's striking and Dern's grappling may lead to a tac... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Round group ? 65% Rounds 3-4 Given the fighters' skill sets and the likelihood of a decision, the fight is expected to be competitive, with a higher chance of concluding... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 13-9 -4.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 38-34 -4.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 388-401 -229.4u	81% Weili Zhang ~1.22	67% Decision	71% Yes	64% 4-5
Match winner ? 81% Weili Zhang Weili Zhang is the far superior striker and well-rounded fighter with elite wrestling defense. Dern's primary path is submission but Zhang h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.22 Edge: -1.0% Method of victory ? 67% Decision Zhang prefers control and volume striking over early finishes while Dern rarely finishes elite opponents on the feet. Zhang's takedown defen... Unlock reasoning · Pro Goes the distance ? 71% Yes Zhang's pace and defensive skill usually carry fights into later rounds against durable opponents. Dern has gone the distance in most recent... Unlock reasoning · Pro Round group ? 64% 4-5 Zhang typically wins in championship rounds via accumulated damage and control. Dern's cardio allows her to survive early pressure. Most com... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 31-37 -8.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 55-94 -58.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 376-424 -344.0u	82% Weili Zhang ~1.22	40% Weili Zhang by KO/TKO	62% No	38% Decision
Match winner ? 82% Weili Zhang Weili Zhang is widely recognized as a dominant force in the strawweight division, possessing superior striking and excellent takedown defens... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.22 Edge: +0.0% Method of victory ? 40% Weili Zhang by KO/TKO Weili Zhang's powerful striking and aggressive style make a KO/TKO victory highly plausible, especially against a less proficient striker li... Unlock reasoning · Pro Goes the distance ? 62% No With Weili Zhang's significant striking power and Mackenzie Dern's opportunistic submission game, there's a good chance this fight will end... Unlock reasoning · Pro Round group ? 38% Decision While a finish is likely, a significant portion of fights at this level go to decision due to fighter resilience and tactical exchanges. If... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 343-461 -337.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Method of victory ? No pick on this market. Goes the distance ? No pick on this market. Round group ? No pick on this market.
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 432-479 -273.6u	80% Weili Zhang ~1.22	45% Decision	65% Yes	45% Rounds 4-5
Match winner ? 80% Weili Zhang Weili Zhang is the reigning champion with superior striking and takedown defense, while Mackenzie Dern relies on grappling. Zhang's power an... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.22 Edge: -2.0% Method of victory ? 45% Decision Zhang's striking is precise but Dern has a solid chin and excellent submission defense. Dern will likely try to grapple but Zhang's takedown... Unlock reasoning · Pro Goes the distance ? 65% Yes Neither fighter is known for early finishes in top-level bouts. Zhang's last three wins went to decision, and Dern has gone the distance in... Unlock reasoning · Pro Round group ? 45% Rounds 4-5 Given the decision-heavy outcome, the fight is most likely to reach the championship rounds. If a finish occurs, it's more probable in the l... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Weili Zhang 5/5	Decision 4/5	Yes 4/5	4-5 1/5
Bookmaker line	Weili Zhang 82%	—	—	—

Match winner

Consensus
Weili Zhang 5/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 72% Weili Zhang ~1.22

Weili Zhang is the heavy favorite at 1.22 implied probability (~82%), but market is likely overvaluing her at that price given Dern's striki...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Odds: 1.22 Edge: -10.0%

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 75% Weili Zhang ~1.22

Zhang Weili is a two-time former strawweight champion with a dominant record in the division. Despite her recent loss to Valentina Shevchenk...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Odds: 1.22 Edge: -7.0% 🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 81% Weili Zhang ~1.22

Weili Zhang is the far superior striker and well-rounded fighter with elite wrestling defense. Dern's primary path is submission but Zhang h...

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Odds: 1.22 Edge: -1.0%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 82% Weili Zhang ~1.22

Weili Zhang is widely recognized as a dominant force in the strawweight division, possessing superior striking and excellent takedown defens...

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Odds: 1.22 Edge: +0.0%

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 80% Weili Zhang ~1.22

Weili Zhang is the reigning champion with superior striking and takedown defense, while Mackenzie Dern relies on grappling. Zhang's power an...

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Odds: 1.22 Edge: -2.0%

Bookmaker line: Weili Zhang 82%

Method of victory

Consensus
Decision 4/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Decision

Both fighters are technical strikers with strong wrestling; early finishes are uncommon in this matchup style. Zhang's control and Dern's wi...

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GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Decision

Both fighters are well-rounded, with Zhang having a strong striking game and Dern possessing exceptional grappling skills. Their skills may...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 67% Decision

Zhang prefers control and volume striking over early finishes while Dern rarely finishes elite opponents on the feet. Zhang's takedown defen...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Weili Zhang by KO/TKO

Weili Zhang's powerful striking and aggressive style make a KO/TKO victory highly plausible, especially against a less proficient striker li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 45% Decision

Zhang's striking is precise but Dern has a solid chin and excellent submission defense. Dern will likely try to grapple but Zhang's takedown...

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Goes the distance

Consensus
Yes 4/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Yes

Given the technical, grapple-heavy nature of this matchup and both fighters' durability, the fight is more likely to reach decision than end...

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GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 70% Yes

Both fighters have shown durability and have a history of fights going the distance. Zhang's striking and Dern's grappling may lead to a tac...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 71% Yes

Zhang's pace and defensive skill usually carry fights into later rounds against durable opponents. Dern has gone the distance in most recent...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% No

With Weili Zhang's significant striking power and Mackenzie Dern's opportunistic submission game, there's a good chance this fight will end...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 65% Yes

Neither fighter is known for early finishes in top-level bouts. Zhang's last three wins went to decision, and Dern has gone the distance in...

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Round group

Consensus
4-5 1/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 45% R3

If the fight goes to decision, it will likely be competitive and tightly contested, favoring later rounds. Early round finishes (R1–R2) are...

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GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% Rounds 3-4

Given the fighters' skill sets and the likelihood of a decision, the fight is expected to be competitive, with a higher chance of concluding...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 64% 4-5

Zhang typically wins in championship rounds via accumulated damage and control. Dern's cardio allows her to survive early pressure. Most com...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Decision

While a finish is likely, a significant portion of fights at this level go to decision due to fighter resilience and tactical exchanges. If...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 45% Rounds 4-5

Given the decision-heavy outcome, the fight is most likely to reach the championship rounds. If a finish occurs, it's more probable in the l...

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Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book	Weili Zhang	Draw	Mackenzie Dern
BetOnline	1.22	—	4.50

Book	Line	Over	Under

Book	Weili Zhang	Mackenzie Dern

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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