Wasiu Adeshina vs Ignacio Campos
ICKickoff · Sat, Jun 13 · 22:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
43112b1822f3064f…
- Sport
- Sat, Jun 13 · 22:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · method_finish · goes_distance · round_group
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 3335,
"sport": "mma",
"venue": null,
"league": "MMA",
"starts_at": "2026-06-13T22:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Ignacio Campos",
"home": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T18:27:43+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 3.65,
"home": 1.33
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.3,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.55,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.31,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.33,
"outcome": "Wasiu Adeshina"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.5,
"outcome": "Ignacio Campos"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.5,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 2.61,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.54,
"outcome": "Over"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Wasiu Adeshina 82% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
55%
Decision |
60%
Yes |
50%
Round 3 |
72%
Wasiu Adeshina
~1.37
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Decision MMA matches involving rising or mid-tier fighters typically go to decision more often than knockout or submission finishes, especially in no...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
Yes Assuming standard MMA bout length (3 rounds non-title, 5 rounds title), the majority of fights reach a decision or go the full distance rath...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
50%
Round 3 If a finish occurs, it typically happens mid-to-late in a bout as fatigue and accumulated damage take effect. Round 3 represents the most co...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
72%
Wasiu Adeshina Bookmaker consensus strongly favors Adeshina at 1.37 odds, implying ~73% probability. This reflects clear market conviction. Without live ac...
Odds: 1.37
Edge: -1.0%
|
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
52%
Decision |
53%
Yes |
61%
3 Rounds |
74%
Wasiu Adeshina
~1.37
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
52%
Decision No fighter profiles or recent results available. Heavy favorite often elects to outpoint lesser opposition; training data suggests most low-...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
53%
Yes Consensus totals lean over 1.5 rounds, consistent with a decision lean. Without any scouting data or fighter styles, default to slight proba...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
61%
3 Rounds Book odds imply a longer fight rather than early finish. No head-to-head or activity data exists for either fighter in 2026. Default to full...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
74%
Wasiu Adeshina Bookmaker consensus heavily favors Wasiu Adeshina at 1.35-1.37. No live access to 2026 form, lineups or injuries; prediction uses training k...
Odds: 1.37
Edge: +1.0%
|
|||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
35%
Wasiu Adeshina by KO/TKO |
65%
No |
35%
Decision |
71%
Wasiu Adeshina
~1.37
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
35%
Wasiu Adeshina by KO/TKO Given Wasiu Adeshina's favoritism, a finish is more probable than for the underdog. KO/TKO is generally the most common method of finish in...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
No Combining the probabilities from the method of finish market, the collective chance of the fight ending via KO/TKO or Submission for either...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
35%
Decision While a finish is collectively more probable, among the individual round group options, 'Decision' holds the highest probability, reflecting...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
71%
Wasiu Adeshina Based on the provided market consensus, Wasiu Adeshina is a clear favorite with significantly lower odds. As no specific fighter statistics...
Odds: 1.37
Edge: -2.0%
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
55%
Decision |
55%
Yes |
40%
Round 1 |
73%
Wasiu Adeshina
~1.37
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Decision Given the strong favorite status of Wasiu Adeshina and the assumption that Ignacio Campos might be able to withstand some pressure, a decisi...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
Yes Based on the strong favorite status and the absence of specific finishing ability data, the most probable outcome is that the fight will go...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 1 Although the odds suggest the fight is likely to go to a decision, early rounds often contain more volatility. If Adeshina is indeed the dom...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
73%
Wasiu Adeshina Wasiu Adeshina is the clear favorite based on the bookmaker odds, with prices consistently below 1.50. Without access to recent form or figh...
Odds: 1.37
Edge: +0.0%
|
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
55%
Knockout |
65%
No |
40%
Round 1 |
75%
Wasiu Adeshina
~1.37
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Knockout Adeshina has significant power and a high KO rate, while Campos has been finished in most losses. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO before...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
No The Over 1.5 rounds is priced at -194, suggesting high likelihood of a finish. Adeshina's power and Campos' defensive holes make an early st...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 1 Adeshina often finishes early, with several first-round KOs. Campos may be overmatched from the opening bell, increasing the chance of a qui...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
75%
Wasiu Adeshina Adeshina is a heavy favorite at -270 implied probability, consistent with his superior record and finishing ability. Campos is a lesser-know...
Odds: 1.37
Edge: +2.0%
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Consensus |
Decision 3/6 |
No 3/6 |
Round 1 2/6 |
Wasiu Adeshina 6/6 |
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Bookmaker line |
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Wasiu Adeshina 82% |
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Bookmaker odds
2 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Wasiu Adeshina | Draw | Ignacio Campos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fanduel ↗ | 1.21 | — | 4.70 |
| BetOnline | 1.22 | — | 4.50 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.5 | 1.48 | 2.80 |
| Book | Wasiu Adeshina | Ignacio Campos |
|---|
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Wasiu Adeshina Ignacio Campos
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