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MLB Major League Baseball · Nationals Park
Upcoming · in 86h 33m
Washington Nationals logo

Washington NationalsvsToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

Recent form for both teams indicates offensive struggles: Nationals averaged 6.0 RPG, Blue Jays averaged 4.0 RPG over their last 5. Combined...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Park factors (Statcast 2026 indexes) and warm, light-wind weather on July 27 increase run carry probability, and both projected lineups have...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, but the Nationals' home games have tended to be higher-scoring. The expe...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams have allowed high run totals in recent form with combined conceded runs exceeding 60 in 10 games. July conditions in Washington t...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Predicting total runs without specific pitcher matchups or weather is challenging, relying solely on recent team scoring trends. Washington'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The projected starting pitchers, Berrios and Corbin, have shown a tendency to give up runs, and both offenses have shown the capability to s...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have scored and conceded frequently in recent games, with averages above 5 runs per game combined. Nationals Park is neutral to s...

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Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

The Nationals are slight favorites on home field, but the spread of 1.5 runs slightly overvalues them given both teams' recent poor offensiv...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

If the spread is home -1.5, I prefer Blue Jays +1.5 as the safer play because the Blue Jays still have top-line offense and their bullpen is...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' slight edge in overall performance and road success suggests they are more likely to cover the spread. However, the Nationals...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays hold a modest talent edge that translates to a small run-line lean on the road. Home recent form shows inconsistency with more...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

With both teams showing similar 2-3 records in their last five, indicating a closely contested matchup, it's unlikely either team will win b...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Toronto Blue Jays

While the Blue Jays are favored, the Nationals have shown some offensive power at home. However, the Blue Jays' recent form and potential fo...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Toronto is the favorite but the spread requires winning by 2 or more; Washington's home field may keep it close. Probability is slightly aga...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings)

Early-inning totals are often suppressed relative to full-game totals when neither team is in hot offensive form. Nationals (30 runs in 5 ga...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 46% Toronto Blue Jays

First-five innings lean to the Blue Jays slightly because their rotation pieces (per recent usage shown on team pages) have produced several...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' starting lineup, featuring players like Ernie Clement and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has shown the ability to score early in game...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Toronto Blue Jays

Early game edge stays close to the full-game projection given the long rest for both starters. Nationals home form has been erratic in the f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Draw

Without knowledge of the starting pitchers, predicting the first five innings is highly speculative. Given the apparent parity in recent for...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Starting pitchers are key but unknown; Toronto's bullpen is generally deeper. Early advantage to the Blue Jays based on overall talent, but...

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Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Washington Nationals

Both teams are in sluggish form (2-3 over last 5), but the Nationals have a slight home-field advantage at Nationals Park and better recent...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Washington Nationals

With the matchup at Nationals Park (slightly hitter-friendly) and Washington's projected lineup showing top-6 impact bats (James Wood, CJ Ab...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form, with a...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto enters with slightly better overall roster talent and the away form shows recent wins despite the small sample. Nationals Park is ne...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Washington Nationals

This prediction is based on general team form provided and historical baseball tendencies, as I do not have access to live data for a 2026 g...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a slight edge due to a potentially more favorable pitching matchup and recent strong offensive performances, despite both...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Toronto Blue Jays

Training data through early 2025 suggests Toronto has a superior roster overall, with better offensive depth. Washington's recent form has b...

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First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

The early innings often see both teams' offenses taking advantage of starting pitchers who might still be settling in. The Nationals' home o...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Toronto Blue Jays

60
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Washington Nationals

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

58
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Washington Nationals

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Toronto Blue Jays

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Washington Nationals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: fed64ae8716bd89f…
Kickoff
Mon, Jul 27 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 15880,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Nationals Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-27T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 27 Jul 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 30,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 34
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 19,
            "home": 16
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

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How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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