Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners

Final: 2 – 10

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 18:18 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 8 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    53fa1cae40fcc496…

Sport: Fri, Jun 12 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2581,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-12T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 12 Jun 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Seattle Mariners",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:18:35+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	48% Washington Nationals -1.5 V	53% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings) V	55% Washington Nationals L	52% Over 8.5 W
Spread ? 48% Washington Nationals -1.5 The Nationals are slight home favorites but -1.5 is a moderate ask without confirmed pitcher quality and current roster status. The Mariners... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings) Early-inning totals historically trend slightly under as starters establish control and offenses need time to read opposing pitching. Withou... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Washington Nationals As of my training knowledge (through September 2025), the Nationals have been moderately competitive in the NL East with solid home field ad... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB totals in mid-June typically trend slightly over the consensus line due to increased offensive production as weather warms and hitters a... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% Mariners -1.5 V	54% Mariners V	56% Mariners L	53% over V
Spread ? 52% Mariners -1.5 Seattle's superior rotation depth gives them the edge on the run line in most road games per historical records. Training data through 2025-... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Mariners Seattle typically deploys stronger starters early, leading to first-five advantages in the majority of documented series. Training data thro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 56% Mariners Mariners have historically fielded the stronger roster and pitching staff relative to the Nationals through 2025. Training data through 2025... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Both clubs tend to play in moderate run environments at Nationals Park based on historical patterns. Training data through 2025-09 shows tot... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	58% Seattle Mariners -1.5 V	68% Seattle Mariners V	65% Seattle Mariners W	55% Under 8.5 L
Spread ? 58% Seattle Mariners -1.5 Considering the Mariners' overall strength and the Nationals' recent rebuilding efforts, Seattle is generally capable of winning games by mo... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 68% Seattle Mariners Based on general knowledge from my training data, the Mariners typically boast a more formidable starting rotation compared to the Nationals... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 65% Seattle Mariners Based on general knowledge from my training data, the Seattle Mariners typically possess a stronger pitching rotation and a more consistent... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 Historically, the Mariners often feature strong pitching that can limit opponents' scoring, while the Nationals' offense against stronger ar... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	53% Seattle Mariners V	54% Seattle Mariners V	55% Seattle Mariners L	52% over V
Spread ? 53% Seattle Mariners Given the slight historical advantage for the Mariners and the general unpredictability of baseball spreads, betting on the away team to cov... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Seattle Mariners The prediction for the first five innings mirrors the full game h2h prediction, assuming the Mariners' historical strength would allow them... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Seattle Mariners Based on training data through 2026-09, the Seattle Mariners generally held a slight edge over the Washington Nationals. Without current sea... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Typical MLB game totals often hover around 8-9 runs. While specific team trends are unavailable from training data, leaning slightly towards... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	50% Seattle Mariners -1.5 V	55% Seattle Mariners V	55% Seattle Mariners W	55% Under 8.5 V
Spread ? 50% Seattle Mariners -1.5 Mariners are favorites but covering a -1.5 run line on road is uncertain. Nationals can keep it close at home, making this a coin flip. Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Seattle Mariners Mariners' strong starting pitching gives an edge in the first five innings. Nationals' offense is inconsistent early, and Seattle's pen is n... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Seattle Mariners Training data through 2025-09; the Mariners have a stronger recent record and better pitching rotation, while the Nationals are in rebuildin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 Both teams have modest offensive production and the matchup likely features decent pitching. The Nationals' ballpark is slightly hitter-frie... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Seattle Mariners -1.5 3/6	Seattle Mariners 3/6	Seattle Mariners 4/6	over 2/6

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