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MLB
Upcoming · in 87h 07m
Washington Nationals logo

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies logo

Kickoff · Thu, Jun 25 · 22:45 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 22 · 05:47 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: f5254d87bbaa67e4…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 25 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6083,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-25T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-22T05:47:49+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over

June baseball typically sees increased scoring as weather warms and hitter timing sharpens post-spring. Both the Nationals and Phillies fiel...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The Nationals' pitching staff has struggled, leading to h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Typical MLB scoring environments favor slight lean to over in summer games. Training data through 2025-09. No live pitching matchups known.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Without specific pitching matchups for this future game, predicting the total runs is challenging. However, both teams have shown periods of...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

The average total runs scored in games between these two teams historically tends to hover around the 7.5 mark. Without specific pitching ma...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over 8.5

Both teams have offenses capable of scoring, and the Nationals' ballpark is hitter-friendly. The Phillies' bullpen has been inconsistent, an...

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Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies enter mid-2026 as a stronger roster with deeper playoff experience and a more consistent win profile than the Nationals. Washin...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have been performing well recently, with a strong lineup and favorable matchups against the Nationals. The Nationa...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies projected as stronger team based on 2025 roster talent and recent seasons; Nationals historically weaker at home. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on historical performance and general team strength prior to my last training data update, the Philadelphia Phillies are typically the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on historical data, the Philadelphia Phillies generally have a competitive edge over the Washington Nationals in head-to-head matchups...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have a slight edge at home, with recent form showing improved pitching and a solid bullpen. The Phillies have struggled on the...

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Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies' structural roster advantage and historical dominance in divisional play support a slight edge on the run line. However, confid...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' recent form and offensive strength suggest they can cover the -1 spread against the Nationals, who have been inconsistent in t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% away_ -1.5

Away favorite expected to win by multiple runs given talent gap. Training data through 2025-09. No current injuries or lineups accessible.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Historically, the Philadelphia Phillies have often outscored the Washington Nationals, making them a likely candidate to cover a -1.5 run sp...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the slight historical advantage of the Phillies in head-to-head matchups, they are marginally favored to cover a spread of -1. This pr...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Washington Nationals -1.5

While the Nationals have home advantage, covering the -1.5 run line requires a comfortable victory which is less likely given the Phillies'...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Philadelphia Phillies

Early-game momentum typically favors the visiting team with more cohesive offensive sequencing in the first five frames. The Phillies' consi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been strong in the early innings, often taking early leads, while the Nationals have struggled to score early in games.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Stronger away lineup projects to lead early. Training data through 2025-09. Future game with no 2026-specific data.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies' historical strength, particularly their pitching and early offense capabilities, suggests they are more likely to...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have shown a tendency to start games strongly against the Nationals. This prediction is based on general historica...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Washington Nationals

The Nationals' starting rotation has been solid early in games, and the Phillies' starters have been inconsistent. However, without specific...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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