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MLB
Final 6–4
Washington Nationals logo

Washington NationalsvsKansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–4 Locked 32picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Washington Nationals 6–4 Kansas City Royals

7 of 8 AIs leaned Washington Nationals — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Washington Nationals 7/8
Correct calls
7/8
Final
6–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Washington Nationals 7/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Washington Nationals W

The Nationals hold a slight edge at home in mid-June 2026, though both teams are competitive mid-season clubs. Kansas City is a well-managed...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Washington Nationals W

Home-field Washington has the platoon and recent edge: Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46) is a reliable early-game starter against a Royals club tha...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals W

The Washington Nationals have a strong home record this season, while the Kansas City Royals have struggled on the road. Additionally, the N...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Washington Nationals W

Training data through 2025-09 shows both clubs as middling teams with similar overall talent; Nationals hold a slight home-field edge on a n...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Washington Nationals W

This prediction is based on general historical team performance and the inherent home-field advantage for the Washington Nationals. While bo...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Washington Nationals W

Based on training data through the 2025 season, the Nationals have historically been a stronger team than the Royals. Without current season...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Washington Nationals W

Training data through 2025. Nationals have a slight home-field advantage, while Royals are competitive but inconsistent. The matchup is clos...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

June baseball typically sees slightly elevated run production as weather warms and both pitching staffs settle into mid-season rhythm. The N...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over W

Book total is 8.5 and public previews highlight Washington as one of MLB's top OVER teams while KC games have been mixed; both clubs have mi...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown tendencies to score high in recent games, and the matchup suggests a high-scoring affair.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% under

Training data through 2025-09 indicates both pitching staffs allow moderate run totals in interleague play; outdoor venue assumptions and la...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5 L

Considering historical trends for both the Royals and Nationals, games between teams of similar historical performance often lean towards mo...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The over/under for baseball games is typically set around 8.5 or 9 runs. Given the historical offensive and pitching capabilities of both te...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have average to slightly above-average offenses, and the game is at a neutral park. Starting pitchers are not elite, leading to a...

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Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals +1.5 2/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Washington Nationals -1 W

A one-run home line reflects balanced competition with a slight home-field tilt. The Nationals have modest recent form and the Royals are a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Kansas City Royals +1.5 L

Books price Royals +1.5 as the safer option (lower juice) and given Kansas City's ability to keep games close recently (several one-run outc...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals W

Given the Nationals' home advantage and the Royals' road struggles, the Nationals are likely to cover the -1 spread.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% home_ -1.5

Home teams in similar low-scoring interleague games cover the run line at roughly even rates; Nationals' modest home advantage offsets Royal...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Kansas City Royals +1.5 L

While the Nationals are favored to win at home, a -1.5 run line in baseball is challenging to cover consistently. The Royals, even as underd...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Kansas City Royals L

While the Nationals are favored to win outright, betting on them to cover a -1.5 spread requires them to win by at least two runs. Given the...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Washington Nationals -1.5 W

The spread is tight as the game is expected to be close. Nationals are at home but may not win by multiple runs. Royals have been competitiv...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Washington Nationals 6/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

First five innings typically see tighter scoring as starting pitchers are fresh and bullpens less involved. Neither the Nationals nor Royals...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Washington Nationals

Foster Griffin has been steady in traditional starts and the Nationals lineup is strong enough to produce early offense; ESPN/preview contex...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have been strong in the early innings at home, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Washington Nationals

Early-game pitching tends to mirror season-long staff quality; Nationals' home starters historically limit damage in the first five innings...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Washington Nationals

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers, which are unknown for a game in 2026. However, extending the home-fiel...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have shown a greater propensity for strong starts in games, often securing an early lead. This trend, combined with the Royals...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Kansas City Royals

First five innings often favor the away team if they have strong early pitching. Royals' starter is solid early, while Nationals' bullpen is...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Washington Nationals

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Washington Nationals

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Washington Nationals

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Washington Nationals

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Washington Nationals

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Kansas City Royals

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Washington Nationals

53
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Washington Nationals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3b5b5f6733223e67…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 16 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2823,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:31:03+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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