Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals

Kickoff · Mon, Jun 15 · 22:46 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 15 · 00:18 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded AIs split

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    2491771c26497a93…

Sport: Mon, Jun 15 · 22:46 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5032,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-15T22:46:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:46:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-15T00:15:33+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Washington Nationals	52% Over 8.5	55% Washington Nationals -1	56% Washington Nationals
Match winner ? 58% Washington Nationals The Nationals play at home with a typical home-field advantage in early-to-mid June. Without access to live 2026 standings, current injuries... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Mid-June MLB games often feature mild weather and hitters in rhythm after ~2.5 months into the season. Without specific pitcher information,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Washington Nationals -1 A one-run spread favoring the home Nationals is typical for evenly matched teams in mid-season play. Washington's home advantage aligns with... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Washington Nationals Early-inning outcomes in baseball are less predictable than full-game results due to smaller sample size and pitcher performance variance. A... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Kansas City Royals	60% under	55% Kansas City Royals	55% Kansas City Royals
Match winner ? 55% Kansas City Royals The Kansas City Royals have a slightly better recent form, with a 3-2 record in their last five games, compared to the Washington Nationals'... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% under Both teams have struggled offensively this season, with the Royals averaging 3.9 runs per game (27th in MLB) and the Nationals averaging 5.3... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Kansas City Royals The Royals' recent form and slightly better away record suggest they have a good chance to cover the spread. However, the Nationals' strong... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Kansas City Royals The Royals' recent form and slightly better away record suggest they may have an edge in the early innings. However, the Nationals' strong h... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% Washington Nationals	51% over	49% home -1.5	52% Washington Nationals
Match winner ? 53% Washington Nationals Nationals hold a modest home-field edge in training data through 2023 while both clubs post near-.500 records overall. Royals show slightly... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Both lineups feature contact hitters that tend to produce moderate run totals in neutral conditions. Historical head-to-head games lean slig... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 49% home -1.5 Royals road underperformance gives Nationals a narrow edge on the run line in past seasons. Pitching matchups are projected close but home b... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Washington Nationals Early-game starters historically give Nationals a slight first-five advantage at home. Royals have shown slower starts on the road in prior... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	48% Washington Nationals	52% Under 8.5	55% Kansas City Royals +1.5	45% Washington Nationals Lead
Match winner ? 48% Washington Nationals Based on historical team performance from my training data, both the Nationals and Royals have been rebuilding teams. Without specific start... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 Historically, both the Nationals and Royals, as rebuilding franchises, have tended to have inconsistent offenses, often leading to lower-sco... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Kansas City Royals +1.5 Given that both teams are generally considered to be in rebuilding phases based on my training data, games between them are likely to be clo... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 45% Washington Nationals Lead The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers and initial offensive bursts. Assuming a relatively even matchup in t... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Washington Nationals	52% over	53% Washington Nationals	54% Washington Nationals
Match winner ? 55% Washington Nationals Based on my training data, the Washington Nationals generally have a stronger historical performance than the Kansas City Royals in head-to-... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over My training data suggests that games involving these teams historically tend to have moderate scoring. Without specific pitching matchups or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Washington Nationals Considering the historical tendency for the Nationals to perform slightly better, I'm predicting they will cover a standard spread, assuming... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Washington Nationals Historically, the Nationals have shown a slightly stronger tendency to start games well compared to the Royals. This prediction is based on... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% KC Royals	55% Over 8.5	50% KC Royals -1.5	55% KC Royals
Match winner ? 55% KC Royals The Royals have shown stronger overall performance in the 2026 season, while the Nationals are in a rebuilding phase. Although no specific i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both bullpens have been inconsistent, and Nationals Park is slightly hitter-friendly. The lack of elite pitching in this matchup increases t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% KC Royals -1.5 While the Royals are likely to win, the margin is uncertain. The spread of -1.5 is a fair line given the talent gap, but the lack of precise... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% KC Royals If the Royals have a starting pitching advantage, they are likely to lead after five innings. The Nationals' bullpen may keep the game close... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Washington Nationals 4/7	over 3/7	Washington Nationals -1 1/7	Washington Nationals 3/7

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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