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MLB
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Washington Nationals logo

Washington NationalsvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Washington Nationals -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Washington Nationals -1.5

The Nationals' dominant recent form (4W-1L, +18 run differential, 4 days rest) makes them slight favorites to win by 2+ runs. However, a 1.5...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Houston Astros -1.5

I project a modest edge for Houston to win by multiple runs because the Astros' lineup is stronger and Imai's high-strikeout upside can crea...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros' recent form and slightly better overall record suggest they are more likely to cover the -1.5 spread. Their away performance (22...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Houston Astros

Astros maintain superior starting pitching depth even in 2026 projections. Nationals have shown vulnerability to left-handed power bats that...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Washington Nationals -1.5

The Nationals' strong recent form includes significant offensive output, suggesting they are not just winning, but often by comfortable marg...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

The Astros are favored to win by more than 1.5 runs. Their pitching advantage and slightly better overall form, despite the Nationals' recen...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Washington Nationals -1.5

The Nationals have been winning by multiple runs lately, but the Astros can be competitive. The -1.5 line requires a two-run margin, which i...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Washington Nationals

Early-inning dominance typically mirrors overall form and starting-pitcher quality. Washington's strong recent record and superior rest give...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Houston Astros

Imai's recent multi-inning dominance (6.0 IP/10 K on June 25) suggests the Astros have a better chance to lead or be ahead through five inni...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros' recent form and slightly better overall record suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five innings. Their away per...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Houston Astros

Early-game edge stays with the Astros given their typical strong first-time-through lineup execution. Nationals have been slower starters in...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Washington Nationals

The Nationals' superior recent form, particularly their strong offensive performance and more effective pitching, should give them an advant...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Houston Astros

Houston is favored to lead after five innings. Their stronger projected starting pitcher, Framber Valdez, should allow them to establish an...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Nationals

The starting rotation and early innings favor the Nationals based on their recent form and home advantage. The Astros have shown inconsisten...

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Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Washington Nationals

Washington has strong recent form (4W-1L over last 5 matches) with a +18 run differential, while Houston is struggling at 2W-3L with a -4 ru...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Houston Astros

Houston's starter Tatsuya Imai showed a highly effective recent outing (6.0 IP, 10 K on June 25) and the Astros' lineup is materially strong...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slightly better overall record and have been performing better recently, winning 3 of their last 5 games, compared...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Houston Astros

Astros enter with stronger overall roster talent despite recent mixed results, while Nationals recent hot streak is built on weaker competit...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are in excellent recent form, winning four of their last five games and boasting a significant positive run differe...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slight edge due to their recent performance and a potentially stronger pitching matchup. While the Nationals have...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have been strong at home with a 4-1 run, averaging over 7 runs per game, while the Astros are in inconsistent form (2-3) and o...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Washington's recent scoring profile (36 runs in 5 games = 7.2 per game) plus Houston's weak defense (25 runs conceded in 5 games) suggests m...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over

Both starters present opposing profiles: Imai can generate swings-and-misses (recent 10-K start) but has been uneven overall, while Alvarez'...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with the Astros averaging 4.5 runs per game and the Nationals averaging 5.3 ru...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

July ballparks in DC tend to play neutral to hitter-friendly in summer. Both offenses have shown run-scoring bursts recently and bullpens ha...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

Recent games for both teams suggest a high-scoring affair. The Nationals have been scoring heavily, averaging 7.2 runs per game, while the A...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Given the expected clear weather, decent temperatures, and potentially strong offensive performances from both teams, an over bet on the tot...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% Over 9.0

Both teams have shown recent offensive firepower, with the Nationals scoring 36 runs and Astros 21 in their last 5 games. The generic ballpa...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Houston Astros

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Washington Nationals

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Washington Nationals

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Washington Nationals

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 123–84 · 59%
+72.2u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 132–106 · 55%
-10.7u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 773–656 · 54%
-459.9u
o4-mini
o4-mini 76–68 · 53%
+77.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 551–500 · 52%
-280.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 172–162 · 52%
-39.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 110–104 · 51%
+114.9u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 165–162 · 50%
-51.8u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 889–909 · 49%
-723.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 637–654 · 49%
-412.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 111–115 · 49%
+99.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 833–875 · 49%
-566.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 696–747 · 48%
-545.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 437–472 · 48%
-317.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 821–949 · 46%
-786.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 134–168 · 44%
-64.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 965c40a89f045e80…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 7 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10170,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-07T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 07 Jul 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 25
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLW",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 36,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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