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MLB Major League Baseball · Nationals Park
Upcoming · in 81h 12m
Washington Nationals logo

Washington NationalsvsArizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

Washington's last-5 average is 6.0 runs per game (30 scored in 5 matches); Arizona is averaging 3.8 runs per game (19 in 5 matches). Combine...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Over 8.5

Neutral park (park factor ~0.98) and warm, light-wind conditions remove venue suppression, while Mikolas' pitch mix projects several platoon...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede runs in recent matches. The Nationals have scored 30 runs and conceded 34 in their las...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both offenses have averaged over 4 runs per game in recent outings. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Nationals Park plays closer to n...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

The Washington Nationals' recent games have been notably high-scoring, averaging over 12 runs per game combined. Despite the Diamondbacks' l...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in higher-scoring games recently, with a combined average of over 9 runs per game in their l...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over

Both teams have high-scoring recent games, with totals of 30 and 34 runs scored/conceded for the Nationals and 19/20 for the Diamondbacks ov...

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Spread

Consensus
Washington Nationals 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Washington Nationals -1.5

Home-field advantage at Nationals Park and marginally better form edge (Washington -4 run differential vs Arizona -1 over last 5 matches) su...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Arizona +1.5

Given the matchup uncertainty (Arizona starter listed TBD) and a small edge to Arizona in lineup/staff matchups, taking Arizona +1.5 (road p...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' recent form and head-to-head advantage suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. The Nationals' home advantage...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Washington Nationals

Home team receives the run-line advantage at Nationals Park. Training data through 2025-09 shows Washington covers more often when both club...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

While the Nationals are favored slightly in the moneyline due to home field and offense, both teams have shown inconsistent form, suggesting...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the slight edge for the Diamondbacks in the head-to-head market and their slightly more potent offense, they are favored to cover a -1...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Washington Nationals

The run line of -1 for the Nationals requires them to win by 2 runs. Given the close nature of the contest, this is essentially a coin flip....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Washington Nationals 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Washington Nationals

First-five-innings markets heavily favor starting-pitcher quality and early offensive aggression. Washington's home-field advantage and line...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Arizona Diamondbacks

Projection data (RunsLeft) shows Mikolas gives up better-than-average contact to several hitters in Arizona's projected top 6, and with Ariz...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have shown a tendency to start games strong, with a higher average number of runs scored in the first five innings compared...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Washington Nationals

Early innings favor the home starter at Nationals Park per historical splits. Training data through 2025-09 shows slight home edge in first-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Washington Nationals F5

In the absence of specific starting pitcher information for this 2026 game, this pick leans on the Washington Nationals' overall higher offe...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona's starting pitcher has a slightly better recent track record and faces a Nationals lineup that has been inconsistent early in games....

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Washington Nationals

The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, whose identities are unknown. Generally, home teams have a slight edge in ea...

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Match winner

Consensus
Washington Nationals 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Washington Nationals

Both teams are in poor form (2-3 over last 5 matches), but the Nationals have home-field advantage at Nationals Park and a rest advantage (1...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

With Washington's probable starter Miles Mikolas projected to face a left-leaning Arizona lineup (RunsLeft projects Mikolas vs AZ lineup xwO...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have shown a slight edge in recent form, with a 2-0-3 record in their last five matches, compared to the Washington...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Washington Nationals

Nationals hold home field at Nationals Park with similar recent form to Arizona. Training data through 2025-09 shows Washington slightly bet...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Washington Nationals

Both teams show similar recent form with a 2-3 record in their last five games. However, the Washington Nationals have demonstrated a higher...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a slight edge due to a potentially stronger starting pitcher and a more consistent recent offensive output, de...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Nationals

Washington's offense has been more potent, scoring 30 runs in their last 5 games compared to Arizona's 19, and they have the home field adva...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Washington Nationals

55
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Washington Nationals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Washington Nationals

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Washington Nationals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8abf5c9f4b0f9019…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 26 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 15781,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Nationals Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-26T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 26 Jul 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
        "home": "Washington Nationals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 20
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 30,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 34
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 17,
            "home": 14
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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