USAvsParaguay

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

{
    "event": {
        "id": 354,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "FIFA World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T01:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 01:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Paraguay",
        "home": "USA"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T15:30:32+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 4.1,
            "draw": 3.35,
            "home": 2.16
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.31,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.05,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.75,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.6,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.95,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.8,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.85,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.18,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.11,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.89,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.16,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.33,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.15,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.98,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.8,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.1,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.75,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.96,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.15,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.06,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.35,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.85,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.25,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.85,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.18,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.11,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.85,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.1,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.75,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.25,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.06,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.31,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.05,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.25,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.1,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 2.02,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.5,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.35,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 1.5,
                    "price": 2.75,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 1.5,
                    "price": 1.48,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.56,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.47,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.52,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.46,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.51,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.98,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.43,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.32,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 2.02,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.5,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                }
            ],
            "h2h_lay": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.18,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.05,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.04,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.16,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.84,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0,
                    "price": 1.48,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0,
                    "price": 2.7,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.06,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.74,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.09,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.75,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "USA"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.81,
                    "outcome": "Paraguay"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}