Toronto Maple LeafsvsOttawa Senators
OSYour call
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AI predictions
4 markets · 3 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
32 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
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First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 2/4 models |
Toronto Maple Leafs 2/3 models |
Toronto Maple Leafs 3/3 models |
Over 5.5 2/5 models |
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Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 |
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
58%
Over 5.5 |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 Toronto's home-ice and baseline historical advantage support a small spread lean, but -1.5 is a steep ask for a season-opener when both team...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs First-period play in season-openers frequently sees the home team establish early pressure and possession; Toronto's home crowd and familiar...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs This is a season-opener (September 23, 2026) at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto's home market, giving the Leafs a meaningful venue advantage. Wi...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Over 5.5 Maple Leafs–Senators divisional games historically feature moderate-to-high scoring, particularly when Toronto plays at home where their off... |
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 |
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
58%
Over 5.5 |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 Toronto's home-ice and baseline historical advantage support a small spread lean, but -1.5 is a steep ask for a season-opener when both team...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs First-period play in season-openers frequently sees the home team establish early pressure and possession; Toronto's home crowd and familiar...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs This is a season-opener (September 23, 2026) at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto's home market, giving the Leafs a meaningful venue advantage. Wi...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Over 5.5 Maple Leafs–Senators divisional games historically feature moderate-to-high scoring, particularly when Toronto plays at home where their off... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
51%
home_ -1.5 |
54%
under_1.5 |
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
53%
over |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
home_ -1.5 Toronto is the stronger roster on paper and plays at home, supporting a -1.5 spread lean. Ottawa has shown inconsistency on the road in divi...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
54%
under_1.5 First periods in low-stakes early-season NHL games tend to be cautious and low-scoring. Both teams usually feel out the opponent before open...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto holds home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena against a rebuilding Ottawa side. Historical divisional matchups favor the Leafs at hom...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over NHL totals in September exhibition-style games trend slightly higher due to defensive rust. Toronto and Ottawa games have averaged above 6.5... |
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
51%
home_ -1.5 |
54%
under_1.5 |
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
53%
over |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
home_ -1.5 Toronto is the stronger roster on paper and plays at home, supporting a -1.5 spread lean. Ottawa has shown inconsistency on the road in divi...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
54%
under_1.5 First periods in low-stakes early-season NHL games tend to be cautious and low-scoring. Both teams usually feel out the opponent before open...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto holds home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena against a rebuilding Ottawa side. Historical divisional matchups favor the Leafs at hom...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over NHL totals in September exhibition-style games trend slightly higher due to defensive rust. Toronto and Ottawa games have averaged above 6.5... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 |
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
54%
Over 6.5 |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 No live data was consulted; this comes from training knowledge through 2025-09. While I favor Toronto outright, covering -1.5 requires a two...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs First-period markets skew heavily toward draws because 1P money lines usually settle on the 60-minute result of a 20-minute segment, with ti...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs No live access available; predicting from training data through 2025-09. Toronto has generally been the stronger regular-season side in this...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Over 6.5 Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09, with no live tool use. Toronto-Ottawa games have often featured open, transition-heavy pl... |
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|
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 |
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs |
54%
Over 6.5 |
|
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 No live data was consulted; this comes from training knowledge through 2025-09. While I favor Toronto outright, covering -1.5 requires a two...
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs First-period markets skew heavily toward draws because 1P money lines usually settle on the 60-minute result of a 20-minute segment, with ti...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs No live access available; predicting from training data through 2025-09. Toronto has generally been the stronger regular-season side in this...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Over 6.5 Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09, with no live tool use. Toronto-Ottawa games have often featured open, transition-heavy pl... |
|||||
Spread
ConsensusToronto Maple Leafs -1.5 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
Toronto's home-ice and baseline historical advantage support a small spread lean, but -1.5 is a steep ask for a season-opener when both team...
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
Toronto's home-ice and baseline historical advantage support a small spread lean, but -1.5 is a steep ask for a season-opener when both team...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
home_ -1.5
Toronto is the stronger roster on paper and plays at home, supporting a -1.5 spread lean. Ottawa has shown inconsistency on the road in divi...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
home_ -1.5
Toronto is the stronger roster on paper and plays at home, supporting a -1.5 spread lean. Ottawa has shown inconsistency on the road in divi...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
No live data was consulted; this comes from training knowledge through 2025-09. While I favor Toronto outright, covering -1.5 requires a two...
DeepSeek V3
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
No live data was consulted; this comes from training knowledge through 2025-09. While I favor Toronto outright, covering -1.5 requires a two...
First period winner
ConsensusToronto Maple Leafs 2/3
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs
First-period play in season-openers frequently sees the home team establish early pressure and possession; Toronto's home crowd and familiar...
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs
First-period play in season-openers frequently sees the home team establish early pressure and possession; Toronto's home crowd and familiar...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
54%
under_1.5
First periods in low-stakes early-season NHL games tend to be cautious and low-scoring. Both teams usually feel out the opponent before open...
Grok 4 Fast
54%
under_1.5
First periods in low-stakes early-season NHL games tend to be cautious and low-scoring. Both teams usually feel out the opponent before open...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs
First-period markets skew heavily toward draws because 1P money lines usually settle on the 60-minute result of a 20-minute segment, with ti...
DeepSeek V3
36%
Toronto Maple Leafs
First-period markets skew heavily toward draws because 1P money lines usually settle on the 60-minute result of a 20-minute segment, with ti...
Match winner
ConsensusToronto Maple Leafs 3/3
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs
This is a season-opener (September 23, 2026) at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto's home market, giving the Leafs a meaningful venue advantage. Wi...
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Toronto Maple Leafs
This is a season-opener (September 23, 2026) at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto's home market, giving the Leafs a meaningful venue advantage. Wi...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto holds home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena against a rebuilding Ottawa side. Historical divisional matchups favor the Leafs at hom...
Grok 4 Fast
58%
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto holds home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena against a rebuilding Ottawa side. Historical divisional matchups favor the Leafs at hom...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs
No live access available; predicting from training data through 2025-09. Toronto has generally been the stronger regular-season side in this...
DeepSeek V3
52%
Toronto Maple Leafs
No live access available; predicting from training data through 2025-09. Toronto has generally been the stronger regular-season side in this...
Over / Under
ConsensusOver 5.5 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Over 5.5
Maple Leafs–Senators divisional games historically feature moderate-to-high scoring, particularly when Toronto plays at home where their off...
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Over 5.5
Maple Leafs–Senators divisional games historically feature moderate-to-high scoring, particularly when Toronto plays at home where their off...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
NHL totals in September exhibition-style games trend slightly higher due to defensive rust. Toronto and Ottawa games have averaged above 6.5...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
NHL totals in September exhibition-style games trend slightly higher due to defensive rust. Toronto and Ottawa games have averaged above 6.5...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
54%
Over 6.5
Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09, with no live tool use. Toronto-Ottawa games have often featured open, transition-heavy pl...
DeepSeek V3
54%
Over 6.5
Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09, with no live tool use. Toronto-Ottawa games have often featured open, transition-heavy pl...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5
Toronto Maple Leafs
Claude Haiku 4.5
Toronto Maple Leafs
Grok 4 Fast
Toronto Maple Leafs
Grok 4 Fast
Toronto Maple Leafs
DeepSeek V3
Toronto Maple Leafs
DeepSeek V3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Refresh the read
Early readRe-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.
Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.
Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
f56d75adc4d88fd5…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Sep 23 · 23:00 GMT+0200
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First period winner
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_period
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 46485,
"sport": "ice-hockey",
"venue": "Scotiabank Arena",
"league": "NHL",
"starts_at": "2026-09-23T23:00:00+02:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Ottawa Senators",
"home": "Toronto Maple Leafs"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Confirm the starting goaltender and their recent save% — a backup or a cold starter swings the line and total.",
"Special teams decide tight games: compare power-play and penalty-kill percentages.",
"Back-to-backs and travel cause goalie/skater fatigue — flag the schedule spot.",
"Weigh recent scoring trends and home/road splits; injuries to top-six forwards or a top pairing matter most."
],
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_period"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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