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MLB
Final 5–6
Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue JaysvsTexas Rangers

Texas Rangers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–6 Locked 28picks · 13 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Toronto Blue Jays 5–6 Texas Rangers

5 of 7 AIs leaned Toronto Blue Jays — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Toronto Blue Jays 5/7
Correct calls
2/7
Final
5–6

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Toronto Blue Jays L

Toronto has historically been stronger at home in late June, and the Blue Jays' lineup depth typically provides an edge in mid-season matchu...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays L

Toronto gets Kevin Gausman at home against the Rangers' MacKenzie Gore; despite Gausman having a poor outing on June 19, home park (Rogers C...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers W

The Texas Rangers have a slightly better record and have been performing well recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games. The Toronto Blue J...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Toronto Blue Jays L

Toronto holds a slight home edge in this matchup based on historical park factors and roster construction. Texas has shown inconsistency on...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Texas Rangers W

Based on historical performance data (training data through early 2025), the Texas Rangers showed strong championship-level play. While the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Toronto Blue Jays L

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slight edge in the head-to-head record this season, winning 7 out of 12 games against the Texas Rangers. Both t...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Toronto Blue Jays L

Blue Jays have a slight home-field advantage at Rogers Centre. Both teams were near .500 in 2025, but Toronto's lineup is slightly stronger...

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1 source cited

Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Toronto -1.5

Toronto's home-park advantage and typical late-June roster stability suggest a modest edge in run differential against a road Rangers team....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 L

I expect the Blue Jays to have a small edge and cover a -1.5 runline: Gausman (even if inconsistent) typically gives the Jays length, and th...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

Given the Rangers' slight edge in recent performance and overall record, they are expected to cover a -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 L

Run-line value leans slightly toward the visitor given bullpen volatility for Toronto late in games. Texas has covered the plus side in 52 p...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 W

While the Texas Rangers are slightly favored in the head-to-head, MLB games are often decided by a narrow margin, especially with home-field...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Texas Rangers

While the Blue Jays have a slight edge in head-to-head games, the Rangers have shown resilience, and predicting a spread is difficult withou...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 42% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 L

Blue Jays are expected to win but not by a large margin. The -1.5 run line requires a two-run win, which is less likely given the even match...

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1 source cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both Toronto and Texas field offensively capable lineups with mid-season momentum typically supporting moderate run production. Late-season...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% over

Gausman's recent volatility (notably a 7-run outing June 19) increases run-scoring variance and MacKenzie Gore's outings have been streaky;...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Rangers averaging 4 runs per game and the Blue Jays averaging 4.1 runs per g...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both lineups feature power hitters who elevate run totals at Rogers Centre. Pitching staffs have been prone to allowing extra-base hits in s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% over W

Both the Blue Jays and Rangers have historically featured strong offensive lineups in the seasons leading up to 2026 (based on training data...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

With both teams having played 79 games and the head-to-head record showing a slight Blue Jays advantage, the typical offensive output of the...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% under

Both teams' offenses were average in 2025, and Rogers Centre typically suppresses home runs slightly. Starting pitchers (unknown) likely kee...

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1 source cited

First 5 innings

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

Early-inning baseball typically features fresher pitching and fewer run-scoring opportunities, with most teams' bullpen quality and starter...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under 3.5

Both Gausman and Gore can produce quality early-inning results and teams often start with their top relievers available in such matchups; co...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' recent form and overall performance suggest they may have the upper hand in the early innings of the game.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Toronto Blue Jays

Starting pitching matchup gives Toronto a modest early-inning advantage at home. Rangers have struggled to score in the first five on the ro...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Texas Rangers

The first five innings often showcase the strength of the starting pitchers and initial offensive execution. Given the Texas Rangers' overal...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a better head-to-head record against the Texas Rangers this season. This suggests they might start stronger in ga...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays' starting pitcher (assumed) likely has a slight edge at home. In the first five innings, bullpen quality is less relevant, and hom...

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1 source cited

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Toronto Blue Jays

58
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

55
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Texas Rangers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Toronto Blue Jays

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1038–1056 · 50%
-747.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: bf4f5a4d86d75e7f…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 25 · 23:07 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6088,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-25T23:07:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 23:07:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-22T05:49:40+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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