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MLB Major League Baseball · Rogers Centre
Upcoming · in 79h 55m
Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue JaysvsSt. Louis Cardinals

SL
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto enters with recent home advantage at Rogers Centre and significantly superior rest (24 hrs vs 50 hrs for St. Louis, suggesting St. L...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Home-field advantage at Rogers Centre (domed, climate-controlled) and a marginally deeper lineup give Toronto the edge; neither team shows s...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled on the...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays have home advantage at Rogers Centre. Cardinals recent form shows inconsistency while Blue Jays lineup depth favors them in neutra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Toronto Blue Jays

This prediction is based on general team strengths and historical performance from training data through 2025-09, as no real-time 2026 data...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Toronto Blue Jays have a recent form of WWLLL, indicating struggles in their last five games. The St. Louis Cardinals, while also incons...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays have home field advantage at Rogers Centre and more recent rest (24 days vs 50), which may keep them sharper. St. Louis shows soli...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Toronto has scored 20 runs in 5 recent matches (4.0 RPG) and St. Louis 21 in 3 (7.0 RPG), suggesting combined offensive output near 11 runs...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% over

Given two lineups capable of sporadic run production and the dome (consistent carry, no wind reduction), the game tilts slightly toward a hi...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and the weather forecast predicts warm temperatures with light winds, conditions conducive to higher scorin...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Dome environment at Rogers Centre neutralizes weather. Both teams average moderate run production per historical norms. Training data throug...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Assuming a typical MLB totals line of 8.5, and drawing from historical team offensive capabilities from training data through 2025-09, both...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown decent offensive output in their recent games, scoring 21 and 20 runs respectively over their last few matches. The Bl...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Recent form shows high scoring: St. Louis averaged 7 runs per game, Toronto 4 per game over last 5. Rogers Centre is neutral but offenses ar...

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Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Toronto -1

Toronto's home-field advantage and rest edge (24 vs 50 hours) support a modest spread in their favour. St. Louis' superior recent offensive...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

Expect a one-run tight game where taking the Cardinals +1.5 run-line (they can lose by 1 or win) is better value than backing the Jays -1.5;...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a slight edge at home, but the spread is tight. Recent performances suggest a close game, making the -1.5 spread challeng...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Home team expected to win by narrow margin based on park and form. Cardinals bullpen usage unknown but home edge persists. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Based on the Blue Jays being the home favorite from training data through 2025-09, a victory by more than one run is a reasonable expectatio...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% away_ 1.5

Given the slight edge to the Cardinals in head-to-head based on recent form and the Blue Jays' current struggles, the Cardinals are expected...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Home team is slight favorite on h2h, so covering -1.5 is plausible but not certain. Toronto's offense should score enough, and St. Louis's d...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

First-five-inning markets hinge on early starter effectiveness and lineup platoon splits. Toronto's recent form shows defensive vulnerabilit...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' starting pitcher has been effective early in games, and their offense tends to start strong at home. The Cardinals have strug...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Toronto Blue Jays

Early game often decided by home starter advantage. Limited rest data favors Toronto in first five. Training data through 2023 with no updat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Toronto Blue Jays

The first five innings heavily rely on starting pitching. Without specific 2026 starters, this pick assumes the Blue Jays, as the home team,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have shown a slightly more consistent ability to score runs early in games based on their recent performance. While the Blue J...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays starting pitcher (unknown) likely has home advantage and slightly better rest. St. Louis has potent early offense, but Toronto's l...

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First five innings totals 3.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% under

First-five (F5) scoring typically hinges on the starters; with no confirmed starters available in the public previews I relied on the princi...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

St. Louis Cardinals

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Toronto Blue Jays

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 698cc61743cc14a3…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 2 · 17:37 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 18509,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Rogers Centre",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-02T17:37:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 02 Aug 2026 17:37:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St. Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 3,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 50,
            "home": 24
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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