Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets
Kickoff · Tue, Jun 30 · 23:07 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
10c3c60ca44df1a4…
- Kickoff
- Tue, Jun 30 · 23:07 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7805,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-30T23:07:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 23:07:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "New York Mets",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
52%
Over 8.5 |
50%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
51%
Under 4.5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays As of my training data (through September 2025), the Blue Jays have maintained competitive roster depth with strong home-field advantage at...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Both the Blue Jays and Mets have historically featured lineups capable of run production. Late-June MLB games often see slightly elevated sc...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Home-field advantage favors Toronto, but -1.5 is a moderate spread requiring a convincing win. Without live pitcher matchup data, recent tea...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Under 4.5 Early-innings scoring is typically lower than full-game totals due to pitchers establishing rhythm and fewer baserunners in early at-bats. H... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
New York Mets |
60%
under |
55%
New York Mets |
55%
New York Mets |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
New York Mets The New York Mets have shown a slight edge over the Toronto Blue Jays in recent matchups, with a 3-2 record in their last five encounters. A...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
under Both teams have strong pitching rotations, which suggests a lower-scoring game. Historical data indicates that their recent matchups have te...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
New York Mets The Mets have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent games, suggesting they are likely to cover the -1.5 spread in this...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
New York Mets The Mets have been strong in the first five innings, often taking early leads in their recent games, which may continue in this matchup.
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Toronto Blue Jays |
51%
over |
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
51%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Toronto Blue Jays Game is in 2026 so all inputs are from training knowledge through late 2023. Blue Jays hold typical home-field edge in this matchup historic...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Training data shows average MLB run totals around 8.8 in similar park environments. Both clubs historically produced moderate offense when m...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Home team receives run-line value in training-set MLB data at roughly 52 percent clip. Mets road performance was slightly below average in p...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Toronto Blue Jays Early-inning edges typically favor the home club in historical splits. Limited sample of first-five results from past Mets-Blue Jays games l... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
58%
Toronto Blue Jays |
53%
Over 8.5 |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
56%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Toronto Blue Jays Based on general team profiles from training data through 2025-09, the Toronto Blue Jays typically possess a potent offense and strong home-...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Over 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs based on common MLB totals from training data through 2025-09, the Blue Jays' powerful lineup and...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Based on general team performance trends from training data through 2025-09, if the Toronto Blue Jays secure a victory at home, their strong...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Toronto Blue Jays In the first five innings, the Toronto Blue Jays' strong offense typically gets to work early, supported by capable starting pitching, accor... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
New York Mets |
60%
over |
53%
New York Mets |
54%
New York Mets |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
New York Mets Given that this is a prediction based on training data through 2025-09, the New York Mets have historically shown a slight edge over the Tor...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over Based on general MLB trends and historical data through 2025-09, games between teams with comparable historical performance often tend towar...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
New York Mets Predicting based on training data through 2025-09, the Mets' historical performance against teams like the Blue Jays suggests they can keep...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
New York Mets Considering historical performance trends up to 2025-09, the New York Mets have often started games strongly. This prediction relies on the... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
52%
Over 7.5 |
25%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays The game is in Toronto, giving the Blue Jays home-field advantage. While the Mets have strong offensive potential, the Blue Jays' pitching d...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 7.5 Both lineups feature above-average hitters, and the game is in a neutral ballpark. Starting pitchers are solid but not elite, leading to a m...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
25%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 The game is expected to be close; Blue Jays are slight favorites but winning by two runs is unlikely. Run line markets heavily favor the und...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays starting pitcher is slightly more reliable than the Mets' starter. With home advantage and recent form, Toronto is more likely... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Toronto Blue Jays 4/6 |
Over 8.5 2/6 |
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 4/6 |
Toronto Blue Jays 3/6 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
As of my training data (through September 2025), the Blue Jays have maintained competitive roster depth with strong home-field advantage at...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
New York Mets
The New York Mets have shown a slight edge over the Toronto Blue Jays in recent matchups, with a 3-2 record in their last five encounters. A...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Toronto Blue Jays
Game is in 2026 so all inputs are from training knowledge through late 2023. Blue Jays hold typical home-field edge in this matchup historic...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Toronto Blue Jays
Based on general team profiles from training data through 2025-09, the Toronto Blue Jays typically possess a potent offense and strong home-...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
New York Mets
Given that this is a prediction based on training data through 2025-09, the New York Mets have historically shown a slight edge over the Tor...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
The game is in Toronto, giving the Blue Jays home-field advantage. While the Mets have strong offensive potential, the Blue Jays' pitching d...
Over / Under
ConsensusOver 8.5 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Both the Blue Jays and Mets have historically featured lineups capable of run production. Late-June MLB games often see slightly elevated sc...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
under
Both teams have strong pitching rotations, which suggests a lower-scoring game. Historical data indicates that their recent matchups have te...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Training data shows average MLB run totals around 8.8 in similar park environments. Both clubs historically produced moderate offense when m...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Over 8.5
Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs based on common MLB totals from training data through 2025-09, the Blue Jays' powerful lineup and...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
over
Based on general MLB trends and historical data through 2025-09, games between teams with comparable historical performance often tend towar...
DeepSeek V3
52%
Over 7.5
Both lineups feature above-average hitters, and the game is in a neutral ballpark. Starting pitchers are solid but not elite, leading to a m...
Spread
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays -1.5 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
50%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Home-field advantage favors Toronto, but -1.5 is a moderate spread requiring a convincing win. Without live pitcher matchup data, recent tea...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
New York Mets
The Mets have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent games, suggesting they are likely to cover the -1.5 spread in this...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Home team receives run-line value in training-set MLB data at roughly 52 percent clip. Mets road performance was slightly below average in p...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Based on general team performance trends from training data through 2025-09, if the Toronto Blue Jays secure a victory at home, their strong...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
New York Mets
Predicting based on training data through 2025-09, the Mets' historical performance against teams like the Blue Jays suggests they can keep...
DeepSeek V3
25%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
The game is expected to be close; Blue Jays are slight favorites but winning by two runs is unlikely. Run line markets heavily favor the und...
First 5 innings
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Under 4.5
Early-innings scoring is typically lower than full-game totals due to pitchers establishing rhythm and fewer baserunners in early at-bats. H...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
New York Mets
The Mets have been strong in the first five innings, often taking early leads in their recent games, which may continue in this matchup.
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Toronto Blue Jays
Early-inning edges typically favor the home club in historical splits. Limited sample of first-five results from past Mets-Blue Jays games l...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
56%
Toronto Blue Jays
In the first five innings, the Toronto Blue Jays' strong offense typically gets to work early, supported by capable starting pitching, accor...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
54%
New York Mets
Considering historical performance trends up to 2025-09, the New York Mets have often started games strongly. This prediction relies on the...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays starting pitcher is slightly more reliable than the Mets' starter. With home advantage and recent form, Toronto is more likely...
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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