Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets
Kickoff · Mon, Jun 29 · 23:07 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
e8b7ed211961d783…
- Kickoff
- Mon, Jun 29 · 23:07 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7655,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-29T23:07:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 23:07:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "New York Mets",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
52%
Over |
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
51%
Under 5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays As of my training data cutoff (April 2025), the Blue Jays have typically been the stronger franchise with more consistent regular-season per...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over Both teams have shown offensive capability in recent seasons, and June weather in Toronto is typically warm and favorable for hitting. Witho...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 A -1.5 spread suggests oddsmakers view this as a close game with a slight Blue Jays edge. Given the lack of current form, injury data, and s...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Under 5 First-five-inning totals are heavily dependent on starting pitcher quality and early offensive approach. Without knowing the 2026 starters f... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
60%
New York Mets |
55%
over |
60%
New York Mets |
55%
New York Mets |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
New York Mets The New York Mets have been performing well recently, with a strong lineup and favorable pitching matchups. The Toronto Blue Jays have strug...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have potent offenses, and the starting pitchers have shown vulnerability to home runs. The weather forecast indicates warm temper...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
New York Mets The Mets' recent form and pitching advantage suggest they will cover the -1 spread. The Blue Jays' recent struggles and injury concerns furt...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
New York Mets The Mets' starting pitcher has been effective in the first five innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Blue Jays have struggl...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
54%
Toronto Blue Jays |
51%
over |
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
53%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
54%
Toronto Blue Jays Blue Jays hold home-field advantage in this matchup. Both clubs project as roughly average based on historical performance patterns. Trainin...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Typical MLB scoring environments favor slight lean toward the over in summer months. No weather or pitching data available for 2026 game. Tr...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Home run-line value leans toward the Blue Jays given historical home performance. Limited team-specific data for 2026. Training data through...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Toronto Blue Jays Early innings tend to favor the home starter in MLB. No lineup or bullpen information exists for this 2026 contest. Training data through 20... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
53%
over_8.5 |
56%
New York Mets +1.5 |
54%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays Given the game date in 2026, specific real-time information such as lineups, injuries, and recent form is unavailable. My prediction is base...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over_8.5 As with all predictions for this future date, specific pitching matchups are unknown, but both the Mets and Blue Jays generally field lineup...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
56%
New York Mets +1.5 Baseball games are often decided by one run, making the +1.5 run line a valuable pick for a competitive underdog. While I slightly favor the...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Toronto Blue Jays Without specific starting pitcher information, predictions for the first five innings mirror the full-game H2H pick, factoring in the Blue J... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
52%
over 8.5 |
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
53%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays Based on training data through 2025, the Blue Jays have a slight edge at home, though the Mets are a strong team. No injury or lineup info i...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over 8.5 Both offenses are expected to be productive, but no specific data on starting pitchers or ballpark factors is available. The total is near e...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 The spread is close; with home advantage the Jays may win but not necessarily by more than one run. The underdog covering +1.5 is slightly m...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Toronto Blue Jays Early innings often favor the home team, but without starting pitcher data this is a slight lean based on home advantage. |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Toronto Blue Jays 4/5 |
over 2/5 |
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 3/5 |
Toronto Blue Jays 3/5 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
As of my training data cutoff (April 2025), the Blue Jays have typically been the stronger franchise with more consistent regular-season per...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
New York Mets
The New York Mets have been performing well recently, with a strong lineup and favorable pitching matchups. The Toronto Blue Jays have strug...
Grok 4 Fast
54%
Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays hold home-field advantage in this matchup. Both clubs project as roughly average based on historical performance patterns. Trainin...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
Given the game date in 2026, specific real-time information such as lineups, injuries, and recent form is unavailable. My prediction is base...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
Based on training data through 2025, the Blue Jays have a slight edge at home, though the Mets are a strong team. No injury or lineup info i...
Over / Under
Consensusover 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over
Both teams have shown offensive capability in recent seasons, and June weather in Toronto is typically warm and favorable for hitting. Witho...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have potent offenses, and the starting pitchers have shown vulnerability to home runs. The weather forecast indicates warm temper...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Typical MLB scoring environments favor slight lean toward the over in summer months. No weather or pitching data available for 2026 game. Tr...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
over_8.5
As with all predictions for this future date, specific pitching matchups are unknown, but both the Mets and Blue Jays generally field lineup...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
over 8.5
Both offenses are expected to be productive, but no specific data on starting pitchers or ballpark factors is available. The total is near e...
Spread
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays -1.5 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
A -1.5 spread suggests oddsmakers view this as a close game with a slight Blue Jays edge. Given the lack of current form, injury data, and s...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
New York Mets
The Mets' recent form and pitching advantage suggest they will cover the -1 spread. The Blue Jays' recent struggles and injury concerns furt...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Home run-line value leans toward the Blue Jays given historical home performance. Limited team-specific data for 2026. Training data through...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
56%
New York Mets +1.5
Baseball games are often decided by one run, making the +1.5 run line a valuable pick for a competitive underdog. While I slightly favor the...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
48%
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
The spread is close; with home advantage the Jays may win but not necessarily by more than one run. The underdog covering +1.5 is slightly m...
First 5 innings
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Under 5
First-five-inning totals are heavily dependent on starting pitcher quality and early offensive approach. Without knowing the 2026 starters f...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
New York Mets
The Mets' starting pitcher has been effective in the first five innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Blue Jays have struggl...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Toronto Blue Jays
Early innings tend to favor the home starter in MLB. No lineup or bullpen information exists for this 2026 contest. Training data through 20...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
54%
Toronto Blue Jays
Without specific starting pitcher information, predictions for the first five innings mirror the full-game H2H pick, factoring in the Blue J...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
53%
Toronto Blue Jays
Early innings often favor the home team, but without starting pitcher data this is a slight lean based on home advantage.
Pro on-demand
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
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