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MLB
Upcoming · in 79h 27m
Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros

Houston Astros logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 20:07 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:50 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 81513fb46f585661…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 20:07 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5700,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T20:07:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 20:07:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:50:29+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

As of my training data (through September 2024), the Houston Astros have consistently been a stronger franchise with deeper regular-season s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong home record, and the Houston Astros have struggled in away games this season. Additionally, the Blue Jay...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Houston Astros

Houston has historically fielded stronger pitching staffs than Toronto in recent seasons per training data through 2025-09. The Blue Jays ho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Houston Astros

Predicting from training data through early 2025, the Houston Astros have historically been a more consistently dominant MLB franchise compa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

Based on general knowledge of MLB team strengths, the Houston Astros have historically had a stronger and more consistent roster than the To...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros

Based on my training data through 2025, the Astros have a stronger overall roster and recent playoff experience. The Blue Jays have home-fie...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over

Both the Blue Jays and Astros field above-average offensive lineups with capable middle-order bats. Without current injury status, pitcher f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have strong pitching rotations, and the ballpark is known for favoring pitchers. Historical data suggests that games between thes...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% under

Both clubs tend toward lower-run games when their front-line starters are active according to historical patterns. June weather in Toronto c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Based on historical team characteristics from my training data, both the Blue Jays and Astros typically possess strong offensive lineups wit...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

MLB games typically feature multiple scoring opportunities. Given the offensive potential of both teams, it's more probable that the combine...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have potent lineups capable of scoring runs, and the Blue Jays' home ballpark is hitter-friendly. The starting pitchers are likel...

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Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Given Houston's historical competitive edge and stronger pitching infrastructure, they are slight favorites to win by 2+ runs. However, with...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a potent offense capable of covering the spread, especially against the Blue Jays' pitching staff. The Astros have b...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Houston Astros

Houston's superior depth gives them a slight edge to cover a standard run line on the road. Toronto has shown inconsistency covering at home...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Houston Astros -1.5

When the Houston Astros win, they often do so by a margin greater than one run due to their potent offense and reliable bullpen that can hol...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Houston Astros

While the Astros are favored, the spread of -1.5 indicates a moderate expectation for them to win by more than one run. Their historical per...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

Even though I favor the Astros to win outright, the Blue Jays are competitive at home and often keep games close. The +1.5 run line offers a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Houston Astros

Early-inning advantage often correlates with starting pitcher strength and lineup depth against opposing openers. Without confirmed starting...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Astros' starting pitcher has been dominant in the first five innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Blue Jays have strugg...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Houston Astros

Starting pitching usually dictates the first five innings and Houston's projected arms hold a narrow historical advantage. Early-game offens...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have historically boasted strong starting rotations and lineups capable of producing early runs, which often translates t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Houston Astros

Houston's consistent starting pitching and early-game offensive prowess often give them an advantage in the first five innings. This trend s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 57% Houston Astros

The Astros typically start games strong with a solid bullpen and early offense. Blue Jays' starting rotation has been inconsistent in first...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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