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MLB Major League Baseball · Rogers Centre
Upcoming · in 80h 19m
Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue JaysvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Both teams are in poor form (2-3 in last 5), but Toronto plays at home in Rogers Centre with a slight run-differential advantage (20 scored...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Chicago White Sox

Chicago's Sean Burke is the stronger, more consistent starter on the matchup paper (6-4, 3.41 ERA this season) while Toronto will counter wi...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Chicago White Sox have struggled on the ro...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays hold home advantage at Rogers Centre against a White Sox side that has struggled historically on the road. Training data through 2...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Based on general MLB trends, home teams typically have an advantage, especially in a familiar environment like Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are favored due to playing at home in Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly park. While both teams have similar recent form...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Toronto Blue Jays

Training data through October 2025 indicates the Blue Jays have a stronger overall roster, but the White Sox have shown flashes of competiti...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 9.5

Both teams scored modestly in recent form (Toronto 20 in 5 = 4.0 RPG, Chicago 14 in 5 = 2.8 RPG), suggesting a combined run environment arou...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over 8.5

Both starters have respectable season ERAs but Yesavage's recent control problems (walk spike on July 11) and the Blue Jays' inconsistent bu...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent pitching performances recently, leading to higher-scoring games. The weather forecast indicates warm temp...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Both offenses have shown run-scoring ability in recent games with White Sox conceding 24 runs in last 5. Warm July weather at Rogers Centre...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

The Blue Jays' recent games have shown a tendency towards higher scores, both offensively and defensively. Rogers Centre is known for being...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The over is slightly favored due to the offensive nature of Rogers Centre and potential pitching matchups. While both teams have had mixed r...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% over 8.5

Historical data shows Rogers Centre has average park factors, and both teams have moderate offensive potential. The rest days might lead to...

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Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Toronto's home-field edge and marginally superior recent run differential support a small spread advantage, but Chicago's weakness and lack...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% Chicago White Sox -1.5

Picking Chicago to cover -1.5 is plausible because Sean Burke gives the Sox a good chance to limit early damage and the White Sox lineup has...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Toronto Blue Jays

The game is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having strengths and weaknesses. The spread of -1.5 for the Blue Jays indicate...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Toronto's home performance and White Sox road struggles point to a modest spread lean for the home team. Training data through 2024 shows Bl...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 42% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

While the Blue Jays have a slight home advantage and better recent offensive output, covering the -1.5 run line in baseball is challenging d...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago White Sox

While the Blue Jays are favored to win outright, the White Sox are given a slight edge to cover the spread. This is based on the idea that t...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

The Blue Jays have a slight edge in win probability, but covering a -1.5 run spread requires a dominant performance. Without specific lineup...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring is typically suppressed relative to full-game totals; Chicago's weak offensive profile (2.8 RPG) and Toronto's modest s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Chicago White Sox

First-five innings favor the starter who limits early damage; Sean Burke's track record and ability to eat innings makes the White Sox sligh...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' starting pitcher has been more effective in the early innings compared to the White Sox's starter. Combined with the home fie...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Early-game advantage goes to the home side based on historical first-five results at Rogers Centre. Training data through 2024 shows Toronto...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Toronto Blue Jays

The outcome of the first five innings is heavily influenced by the starting pitchers and early offensive performance. Given the Blue Jays' h...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are predicted to lead after five innings, primarily due to their home-field advantage and a generally stronger offense...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Chicago White Sox

First five innings often depend on starting pitcher quality. Without that data, the outcome is highly uncertain. I assign a slight edge to t...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Toronto Blue Jays

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago White Sox

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Toronto Blue Jays

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Toronto Blue Jays

48

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1014–1026 · 50%
-717.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ba74ffd9627f89d8…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 19 · 16:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13316,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Rogers Centre",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-19T16:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 19 Jul 2026 16:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 24
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 10,
            "home": 10
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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