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MLB Rogers Centre
Upcoming · in 87h 31m
Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue JaysvsBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

Boston's recent pitching is elite (10 runs conceded in 5 games, 2.0 per game average) while Toronto's offense has underperformed (20 runs in...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Over 8.5

Boston's recent 34 runs in five games implies their offense is producing at a high rate, and Toronto has conceded a lot in their recent five...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, with the Red Sox scoring 34 runs in their last 5 games and the Blue Jays...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Red Sox offense in peak form and Toronto's poor pitching defense point to elevated run total. Rogers Centre dome neutralizes weather but fav...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 8.5

Despite Boston's high-scoring recent form, the head-to-head series between these two teams in June 2026 consistently featured low-scoring ga...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

The Red Sox's offense has been potent recently, scoring an average of 6.8 runs in their last 5 games. While the Blue Jays have struggled def...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Boston has scored 34 runs in their last five games, averaging nearly 7 per game, suggesting a hot offense. Toronto's pitching has struggled,...

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Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters on a 5-game winning streak with strong run differential (+24 in last 5) and superior pitching control (only 10 runs conceded)....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Boston Red Sox

Boston arrives with strong recent form (five straight wins and 34 runs in their last 5 games) while Toronto has been uneven at home; the pro...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have demonstrated strong recent form, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Toronto Blue Jays have struggled, losin...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% Boston Red Sox

Boston's 5-game win streak with strong scoring output outweighs Toronto's recent slump despite the home venue. Recent H2H favors Toronto but...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters this game on a dominant five-game winning streak, showcasing high offensive output and strong pitching. While historical head-...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Boston Red Sox

Despite the Blue Jays having a better head-to-head record in their recent matchups, the Red Sox's significantly better recent form (5 consec...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters on a five-game winning streak while Toronto has lost three straight. Despite losing the season series so far, Boston's momentu...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Boston's dominant recent form and superior run differential (+24 vs Jays -8) support a moderate-sized favoring. However, Toronto's home fiel...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 45% Boston -1.5

A Boston win by multiple runs is plausible because their offense is hot, but the Blue Jays' home advantage and rotation pieces (Cease availa...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

Given the Red Sox's superior recent form and overall record, they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays' rece...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Boston Red Sox

Boston's hot streak and better recent results make them the slight value on the run line against a slumping Toronto club. Home rest advantag...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Given Boston's current dominant form, highlighted by significant run differentials in their recent wins (WWWWW, +24 run differential), they...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Boston Red Sox

Given the Red Sox's current strong form and their potent offense, they are favored to win by more than one run. The Blue Jays' recent defens...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Boston Red Sox

Boston's recent form suggests they could win by multiple runs, but Toronto's home advantage and head-to-head dominance make a one-run margin...

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First five innings 5inn leader

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

Boston's offense has been scoring early and often (recent sample), and if Toronto starts a strong starter it's still common for the game to...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Boston Red Sox

Early-inning outcomes are heavily pitcher-dependent, and Boston's recent pitching dominance (2.0 RPG allowed) strongly supports a Red Sox ed...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's strong recent performance suggests they are likely to take an early lead in the first five innings. The Blue Jays' recent stru...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% Boston Red Sox

Early-game edge goes to the surging Red Sox lineup before bullpens factor in. Toronto's recent form shows vulnerability in first five inning...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox F5 Moneyline

Boston's potent offense and strong early-game performance in their recent streak make them likely to establish an early lead. Against a Toro...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been scoring early and consistently in their recent games, indicating a strong start. Their offense appears to be clicking,...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

Boston's starters have been strong early, and their offense often jumps on opponents in the first few innings. Toronto's recent losing strea...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Boston Red Sox

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Boston Red Sox

60
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Boston Red Sox

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Boston Red Sox

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Boston Red Sox

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Boston Red Sox

48

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 394cdf4fe4b87dd5…
Kickoff
Wed, Aug 12 · 23:07 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24003,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Rogers Centre",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-12T23:07:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:07:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWW",
            "record": "5W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 34,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 20,
            "home": 35
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-06-18: Boston Red Sox 3–4 Toronto Blue Jays",
                "2026-06-17: Boston Red Sox 0–3 Toronto Blue Jays",
                "2026-06-16: Boston Red Sox 1–6 Toronto Blue Jays"
            ],
            "matches": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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