Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
CGKickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 02:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
60ed7108f8aa8a6c…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 28 · 02:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Method of victory · Goes the distance · Round group
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 269,
"sport": "mma",
"venue": null,
"league": "MMA",
"starts_at": "2026-06-28T02:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 02:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Ciryl Gane",
"home": "Tom Aspinall"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-24T05:57:59+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 2.75,
"home": 1.49
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.49,
"outcome": "Tom Aspinall"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 2.75,
"outcome": "Ciryl Gane"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Tom Aspinall 67% |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
58%
No |
67%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
40%
Submission |
45%
Round 2-3 |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
58%
No Aspinall's submission-heavy finishing rate and Gane's vulnerability to grappling suggest this fight does not reach a decision. Both fighters...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
67%
Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall is the current UFC heavyweight champion and carries significant physical advantages: wrestling pedigree, cardio, and grappling...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: -0.1%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
40%
Submission Aspinall's primary strength is submission finishing ability via wrestling and ground control; his recent record shows multiple submission wi...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
Round 2-3 Aspinall typically establishes control and finishes in the second or third round rather than explosively in round one; Gane's initial striki... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
80%
No |
67%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
75%
KO/TKO |
70%
1-2 |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
80%
No Given both fighters' aggressive styles and knockout capabilities, it's likely the fight will not go the distance. Aspinall's knockout rate a...
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
67%
Tom Aspinall Aspinall is the reigning interim heavyweight champion and has demonstrated superior striking and grappling skills. Gane has faced challenges...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: -0.1%
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
75%
KO/TKO Aspinall has a high knockout rate, with 68% of his wins coming via KO/TKO. Gane has been susceptible to knockout losses in previous bouts, i...
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
70%
1-2 Aspinall's aggressive fighting style and knockout power suggest the fight will conclude in the early rounds. Gane's defensive vulnerabilitie...
🔍 researched
8 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
61%
No |
64%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
58%
KO/TKO |
55%
1-3 |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
61%
No Aspinall's aggressive pressure and takedown threat typically end fights inside the distance. Gane's cardio is solid but he has been finished...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
64%
Tom Aspinall Aspinall holds the heavyweight title with superior wrestling and finishing power over Gane's striking-focused style. Recent form favors Aspi...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: -3.1%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
58%
KO/TKO Aspinall's heavy hands and ground control produce frequent stoppages against elite heavyweights. Gane has gone the distance in several recen...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
1-3 Aspinall's early finishing rate and Gane's vulnerability to power suggest a majority of outcomes before round 4. Gane's reach may extend the... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
80%
No |
68%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
45%
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO |
35%
Round 1 |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
80%
No Both Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane are elite heavyweights capable of ending fights. Aspinall, in particular, has a strong tendency to finish o...
3 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
68%
Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall's explosive power, grappling prowess, and history of quick finishes make him a formidable opponent. While Ciryl Gane possesses...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: +0.9%
3 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
45%
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO Aspinall boasts an exceptional finishing rate, particularly by KO/TKO, and has demonstrated capable submission skills. Against Gane, who has...
3 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
35%
Round 1 Tom Aspinall is renowned for his blistering starts and has finished many opponents within the first round. His explosiveness and ability to...
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
60%
No |
65%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
55%
Knockout |
45%
Tom Aspinall |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
No Tom Aspinall has a history of finishing fights quickly, with many of his wins coming in the first round. Ciryl Gane's loss to Jon Jones also...
5 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall is the interim Heavyweight Champion and has shown devastating knockout power, securing his last title win in the first round. C...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: -2.1%
5 sources cited
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
Knockout Both fighters possess significant striking power. Aspinall's recent wins, including his interim title victory, came by knockout, highlightin...
5 sources cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall's recent performances, including his interim title win against Sergei Pavlovich, demonstrate his ability to finish fights very...
5 sources cited
|
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
No |
65%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
|
30%
Submission |
45%
Round 1-2 |
|
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
No Aspinall's finishing rate is high (10 of 14 wins inside distance), and Gane has been finished twice. The matchup favors an early finish if A...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Tom Aspinall Aspinall's well-rounded game and recent finishes outweigh Gane's striking prowess. Aspinall has superior wrestling and submission threats, w...
Odds: 1.49
Edge: -2.1%
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
30%
Submission Aspinall's path to victory most likely via submission given his BJJ black belt and Gane's takedown defense issues. Decision is also possible...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
Round 1-2 Aspinall typically finishes early when he wins, with 8 of 10 finishes in round 1 or 2. Gane's best chance is later rounds if he survives. Th... |
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Consensus |
No 6/6 |
Tom Aspinall 6/6 |
KO/TKO 2/6 |
Round 2-3 1/6 |
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Bookmaker line |
— |
Tom Aspinall 67% |
— |
— |
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Goes the distance
ConsensusNo 6/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
No
Aspinall's submission-heavy finishing rate and Gane's vulnerability to grappling suggest this fight does not reach a decision. Both fighters...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
80%
No
Given both fighters' aggressive styles and knockout capabilities, it's likely the fight will not go the distance. Aspinall's knockout rate a...
Grok 4 Fast
61%
No
Aspinall's aggressive pressure and takedown threat typically end fights inside the distance. Gane's cardio is solid but he has been finished...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
80%
No
Both Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane are elite heavyweights capable of ending fights. Aspinall, in particular, has a strong tendency to finish o...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
No
Tom Aspinall has a history of finishing fights quickly, with many of his wins coming in the first round. Ciryl Gane's loss to Jon Jones also...
DeepSeek V3
55%
No
Aspinall's finishing rate is high (10 of 14 wins inside distance), and Gane has been finished twice. The matchup favors an early finish if A...
Match winner
ConsensusTom Aspinall 6/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
67%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Tom Aspinall is the current UFC heavyweight champion and carries significant physical advantages: wrestling pedigree, cardio, and grappling...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
67%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Aspinall is the reigning interim heavyweight champion and has demonstrated superior striking and grappling skills. Gane has faced challenges...
Grok 4 Fast
64%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Aspinall holds the heavyweight title with superior wrestling and finishing power over Gane's striking-focused style. Recent form favors Aspi...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
68%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Tom Aspinall's explosive power, grappling prowess, and history of quick finishes make him a formidable opponent. While Ciryl Gane possesses...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
65%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Tom Aspinall is the interim Heavyweight Champion and has shown devastating knockout power, securing his last title win in the first round. C...
DeepSeek V3
65%
Tom Aspinall
~1.49
Aspinall's well-rounded game and recent finishes outweigh Gane's striking prowess. Aspinall has superior wrestling and submission threats, w...
Bookmaker line: Tom Aspinall 67%
Method of victory
ConsensusKO/TKO 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
40%
Submission
Aspinall's primary strength is submission finishing ability via wrestling and ground control; his recent record shows multiple submission wi...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
75%
KO/TKO
Aspinall has a high knockout rate, with 68% of his wins coming via KO/TKO. Gane has been susceptible to knockout losses in previous bouts, i...
Grok 4 Fast
58%
KO/TKO
Aspinall's heavy hands and ground control produce frequent stoppages against elite heavyweights. Gane has gone the distance in several recen...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
45%
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO
Aspinall boasts an exceptional finishing rate, particularly by KO/TKO, and has demonstrated capable submission skills. Against Gane, who has...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Knockout
Both fighters possess significant striking power. Aspinall's recent wins, including his interim title victory, came by knockout, highlightin...
DeepSeek V3
30%
Submission
Aspinall's path to victory most likely via submission given his BJJ black belt and Gane's takedown defense issues. Decision is also possible...
Round group
ConsensusRound 2-3 1/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
45%
Round 2-3
Aspinall typically establishes control and finishes in the second or third round rather than explosively in round one; Gane's initial striki...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
70%
1-2
Aspinall's aggressive fighting style and knockout power suggest the fight will conclude in the early rounds. Gane's defensive vulnerabilitie...
Grok 4 Fast
55%
1-3
Aspinall's early finishing rate and Gane's vulnerability to power suggest a majority of outcomes before round 4. Gane's reach may extend the...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
35%
Round 1
Tom Aspinall is renowned for his blistering starts and has finished many opponents within the first round. His explosiveness and ability to...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
Tom Aspinall
Tom Aspinall's recent performances, including his interim title win against Sergei Pavlovich, demonstrate his ability to finish fights very...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Round 1-2
Aspinall typically finishes early when he wins, with 8 of 10 finishes in round 1 or 2. Gane's best chance is later rounds if he survives. Th...
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Bookmaker odds
1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Tom Aspinall | Draw | Ciryl Gane |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.49 | — | 2.75 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|
| Book | Tom Aspinall | Ciryl Gane |
|---|
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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4 tool calls · 8 sources
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5 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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