Thróttur VogarvsKári

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3700,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "2. Deild",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T19:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kári",
        "home": "Thróttur Vogar"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-19T17:47:02+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 1.9,
            "draw": 4.1,
            "home": 3.3
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Away"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.13,
                    "outcome": "Home"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Away"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Home"
                }
            ],
            "btts": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.72,
                    "outcome": "No"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.12,
                    "outcome": "Yes"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.2,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.13,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 6.8,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.07,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.49,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.45,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.47,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.48,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.14,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 8,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.25,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.16,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.21,
                    "outcome": "Under 5.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.9,
                    "outcome": "Over 5.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.6,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.2,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.41,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.7,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.6,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.43,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 31,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.76,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.2,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.3,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 7.5,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.01,
                    "outcome": "Under 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 15,
                    "outcome": "Over 4.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5,
                    "outcome": "Under 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.14,
                    "outcome": "Over 0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.06,
                    "outcome": "Under 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 8,
                    "outcome": "Over 3.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.25,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Under 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Over 1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.25,
                    "outcome": "Under 2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.33,
                    "outcome": "Over 2.5"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.53,
                    "outcome": "Away +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.33,
                    "outcome": "Home +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Away +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.3,
                    "outcome": "Home +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.4,
                    "outcome": "Away +2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.12,
                    "outcome": "Home +2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.9,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.35,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.11,
                    "outcome": "Away -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.5,
                    "outcome": "Home -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.6,
                    "outcome": "Away +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.16,
                    "outcome": "Home +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.4,
                    "outcome": "Away +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.5,
                    "outcome": "Home +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.48,
                    "outcome": "Away +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.47,
                    "outcome": "Home +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.15,
                    "outcome": "Away -1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.8,
                    "outcome": "Home -1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.5,
                    "outcome": "Away +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.3,
                    "outcome": "Home +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3,
                    "outcome": "Away +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Draw +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Home +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 7,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.1,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.25,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.16,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.65,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.18,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Away +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.23,
                    "outcome": "Home +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.85,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.4,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.35,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.58,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.8,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.6,
                    "outcome": "Away +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.3,
                    "outcome": "Home +0"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.42,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.75,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.32,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Away -0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Home -0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5,
                    "outcome": "Away +2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.17,
                    "outcome": "Home +2.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.65,
                    "outcome": "Away +2.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.18,
                    "outcome": "Home +2.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.3,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.85,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.4,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.68,
                    "outcome": "Away +1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.45,
                    "outcome": "Home +1.25"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.14,
                    "outcome": "Away -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5.75,
                    "outcome": "Home -1.5"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Away +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.2,
                    "outcome": "Home +2"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.38,
                    "outcome": "Away +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.55,
                    "outcome": "Home +1"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.08,
                    "outcome": "Away +0.75"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.72,
                    "outcome": "Home +0.75"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft",
        "correct_score"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}