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MLB
Upcoming · in 81h 22m
Texas Rangers logo

Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 18:35 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:50 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 98987ee490239a97…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 18:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4948,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T18:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 18:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Diego Padres",
        "home": "Texas Rangers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:50:32+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers are favored in this June matchup based on home-field advantage and typical AL West strength in 2026. The Rangers have been com...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a slightly better home record (16-14) compared to the San Diego Padres' away record (16-13). Additionally, the Ranger...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Texas Rangers

Training data through 2023 shows Rangers with solid home performance and pitching depth while Padres road results were inconsistent. No rest...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Texas Rangers

Based on historical MLB trends, home teams generally hold a slight advantage. Without specific team news or form for 2026, this intrinsic ho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Diego Padres

Based on training data through 2025-09, the San Diego Padres have shown a slight edge in recent interleague play and a generally stronger pi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres

Based on training data through 2025, the Padres have a strong pitching rotation and a balanced lineup, while the Rangers rely heavily on hom...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

MLB games in June typically see moderate scoring with warmer weather and longer days aiding offensive production. Both the Rangers and Padre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, with the Padres averaging 3.9 runs per game (30th in MLB) and the Rangers averagi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2023 indicates both clubs played in higher-scoring games on average. Warm June weather at Globe Life typically boosts...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Under 8.5

Predicting specific run totals without knowledge of starting pitchers or current team offensive/defensive form is challenging. Given a gener...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

With no specific pitching matchups or park factors known from live data, a standard MLB totals line is assumed. Historical data suggests a s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Both offenses are above average, and Globe Life Field plays neutral to slightly hitter-friendly. With two solid but not elite rotations, exp...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Texas Rangers -1.5

The Rangers as home favorites would typically be favored by 1.5 to 2 runs in run-line betting. Home-field advantage, particularly in Texas h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' home advantage and superior recent form give them a slight edge to cover the -1 spread. While both teams have struggled offensi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Texas Rangers

Rangers historically cover the run line at home more often than not per pre-2024 records. Padres bullpen volatility adds risk to road favori...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Diego Padres +1.5

While the home team has a slight H2H edge, covering a -1.5 run line in MLB is less certain and often harder for favorites. The Padres +1.5 o...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Texas Rangers

Given the slight lean towards the Padres winning outright (away), betting on the Rangers to cover a -1 spread implies they would need to win...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% San Diego Padres -1.5

The -1.5 run line is risky; Padres are slightly favored but winning by multiple runs is less likely given Rangers' home strength. The +1.5 s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Texas Rangers

In early-inning play, home-team momentum and starter quality often matter most. The Rangers' home advantage typically translates to early ag...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' home advantage and the Padres' recent struggles suggest they may start the game slowly. The Rangers are more likely to lead aft...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Texas Rangers

Early-game starter matchups in training data favored the Rangers when hosting. First-five results track closely with full-game home edge. No...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are granted a slight edge in the first five innings due to home-field advantage and general team strength. However, early...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% San Diego Padres

Assuming standard starting pitchers from training data, the Padres' projected early game performance often outshines the Rangers. Without sp...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% San Diego Padres

Padres' strong starting pitching typically gives them an early advantage. However, Rangers can strike early too, making this a slight lean t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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