Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 20 · 00:05 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 06:10 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    4434503d6b8dee29…

Sport: Sat, Jun 20 · 00:05 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4343,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T00:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Diego Padres",
        "home": "Texas Rangers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:08:59+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	55% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	53% Texas Rangers -1.5	54% Texas Rangers
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Training data through 2025-09 limits live roster and form visibility for June 2026. The Rangers have historically been competitive in home m... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB totals in 2026 reflect league-wide run environment trends. Without access to current pitching matchups or ballpark conditions, a mid-ran... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Texas Rangers -1.5 A -1.5 line for Texas at home reflects modest favoritism, consistent with home-field advantage. Without access to starting pitchers, bullpen... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Texas Rangers First-five-inning matchups are often shaped by starting pitcher quality and early bullpen availability. Without live pitcher data for 20 Jun... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	60% Texas Rangers	55% over	60% Texas Rangers	55% Texas Rangers
Match winner ? 60% Texas Rangers The Texas Rangers have a strong home record, while the San Diego Padres have struggled on the road. Recent form and head-to-head matchups fa... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have potent offenses, and recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The over is slightly favored based on these trends. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% Texas Rangers The Rangers' home advantage and the Padres' road struggles suggest a likely win by at least one run for Texas. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Texas Rangers The Rangers have been strong early in games, and the Padres have had issues starting games on the road. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	53% San Diego Padres	52% over	51% away_-1.5	51% San Diego Padres
Match winner ? 53% San Diego Padres Training data through 2025-09 shows Padres with superior pitching depth and consistent road performance against AL West clubs. Rangers home... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Training data through 2025-09 indicates Rangers home games average above league run totals especially in summer months. Padres offense tends... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% away_-1.5 Training data through 2025-09 shows Padres covering run line at solid clip versus weaker AL pitching staffs. Rangers lineup struggles agains... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% San Diego Padres Training data through 2025-09 demonstrates Padres early-game scoring edge driven by strong top-of-order hitters. Rangers starters have shown... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	55% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	53% San Diego Padres +1.5	53% Texas Rangers lead
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers Based on general team strengths observed in my training data through late 2023, the Texas Rangers, especially after their 2023 World Series... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 My training data indicates that both the Rangers and Padres typically field competitive offenses, leading to moderately high-scoring games i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% San Diego Padres +1.5 While the Rangers are favored for an outright win based on historical performance, the San Diego Padres are generally a competitive team wit... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Texas Rangers lead Assuming strong starting pitching and a capable offense for the Rangers, a slight home advantage for the first five innings is anticipated.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	55% San Diego Padres	53% over	52% San Diego Padres	54% San Diego Padres
Match winner ? 55% San Diego Padres Predicting based on training data through 2025-09. The San Diego Padres have historically shown strong offensive capabilities and pitching d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Predicting based on training data through 2025-09. Both teams have a history of high-scoring games, suggesting an 'over' is more likely. Thi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% San Diego Padres Predicting based on training data through 2025-09. Given the slight edge for the Padres in head-to-head predictions, they are also favored t... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% San Diego Padres Predicting based on training data through 2025-09. The Padres' tendency for strong starts offensively suggests they are likely to lead after... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	55% Texas Rangers	52% Over 8.5	40% Texas Rangers -1.5	51% Texas Rangers
Match winner ? 55% Texas Rangers The Rangers have home-field advantage at Globe Life Field, and their lineup is strong against left-handed pitching. The Padres have been inc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both bullpens are vulnerable, and the ballpark in Arlington tends to be hitter-friendly in June. Recent games for both teams have seen moder... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% Texas Rangers -1.5 The Rangers are slight favorites, but winning by 2 runs is difficult. The Padres have a strong enough pitching staff to keep the game close.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Texas Rangers The first five innings often favor the starting pitcher. The Rangers' starter (projected) has been solid in early innings, while the Padres'... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Texas Rangers 4/6	Over 8.5 3/6	Texas Rangers -1.5 2/6	Texas Rangers 3/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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