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MLB
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Texas Rangers logo

Texas RangersvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Both teams are in poor form (2W-3L in last 5), but Houston has slightly better offensive output (27 runs vs 21) and lower run-conceded avera...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Texas Rangers

Texas gets the edge at home — Cal Quantrill arrives as a fresh, serviceable right-hander while Hunter Brown is returning from a shoulder IL...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slightly better overall record and have shown better recent form compared to the Texas Rangers. Additionally, the...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Houston Astros

Training data through 2025-09 shows Astros maintain superior overall roster depth versus Rangers. Home field at Globe Life gives Texas a mod...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Texas Rangers

Based on my training data, this is a competitive divisional rivalry game where home-field advantage often plays a significant role. Both tea...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slight edge due to recent head-to-head performance, winning 6 of the last 10 matchups. Although both teams are com...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% Texas Rangers

Both teams are evenly matched with similar recent form, but the Rangers have an extra day of rest and home-field advantage at Globe Life Fie...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Combined last-5 runs: 48 in 10 matches averages 4.8 per team or 9.6 per game. Both offenses are active (27+21), though defenses are porous (...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Indoor, retractable-roof Globe Life Field and its 2026 park factors lean pitcher-friendly which suppresses run scoring and homers. Both prob...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, and the Astros have a higher runs per game average. The weather forecast indicates clear co...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates summer games at Globe Life Field trend toward elevated run totals due to park dimensions. Both clubs...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Over 9.5

Based on my training data, recent form indicates both teams have been involved in higher-scoring games, with the Astros averaging over 11 to...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Given the combined recent form of both teams, which has seen a moderate number of runs scored and conceded, and considering the starting pit...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 9.0

Both teams have averaged over 4 runs per game recently, and Globe Life Field has neutral park factors. The starters are not elite, and bullp...

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Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Houston Astros -0.5

Astros have demonstrated slightly better offensive execution (27 vs 21 runs) and comparable defensive struggles. Although Rangers enjoy a re...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Texas Rangers -1.5

I expect the Rangers to ek e out a multi-run win more often than not because of the park's suppression of offense and Quantrill's freshness;...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

Given the Astros' slightly better overall record and recent form, they are more likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Houston Astros

Training data through 2025-09 gives Houston a slight edge on the run line against Texas in head-to-head play. Rangers' home record is incons...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Houston Astros +1.5

Based on my training data, while the Rangers are slightly favored at home in this rivalry, divisional games in MLB are frequently decided by...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are predicted to win by more than 1.5 runs. Their slightly better head-to-head record and a marginally stronger pitching...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers are slight favorites to win, but covering a 1.5-run spread is less likely given the evenly matched teams. Close game expected, so As...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5 runs

Early-inning scoring depends heavily on starting pitchers' form and bullpen availability, neither of which are available in the provided con...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros have a higher batting average and on-base percentage, which could lead to a stronger offensive performance in the early innings.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Houston Astros

Training data through 2025-09 shows Astros starters frequently hold leads through five innings in divisional games. Texas lineup has histori...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Texas Rangers

Based on my training data, early innings in a divisional matchup can be tight, but the home team often gets a slight boost. Assuming typical...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are slightly favored to lead after the first five innings. Their historical dominance over the Rangers and the slightly b...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Texas Rangers

First five innings often favor the home team and the starting pitcher matchup. Rangers' starter at home and extra rest give a slight edge. A...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
under_4.5 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under_4.5

First-five innings should be pitched by the starters who both profile to eat innings and keep runs down: Brown's early effectiveness (even w...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 131–87 · 60%
+69.2u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 966–735 · 57%
-538.9u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 140–110 · 56%
-14.7u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 617–528 · 54%
-308.7u
o4-mini
o4-mini 79–70 · 53%
+75.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 117–108 · 52%
+110.9u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 179–168 · 52%
-45.9u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1050–1028 · 51%
-842.7u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 170–170 · 50%
-59.8u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 699–711 · 50%
-469.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 118–121 · 49%
+93.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 944–970 · 49%
-661.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 806–862 · 48%
-660.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 445–477 · 48%
-322.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 951–1039 · 48%
-876.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 140–174 · 45%
-70.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 9d97e330a0360fa6…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 11 · 00:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 11570,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-11T00:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Texas Rangers"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWWLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 27,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 24
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 5
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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