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MLB Major League Baseball · Globe Life Field
Upcoming · in 87h 49m
Texas Rangers logo

Texas RangersvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings)

Early-inning scoring typically lags overall game runs; restricting the sample to the first 5 innings reduces total run expectancy. Texas's r...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 61% Texas Rangers

First-five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers; with Noah Schultz (LHP, mid-5 ERA) projected for the White Sox, early offense ag...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have demonstrated stronger early-game performances, often taking the lead in the first five innings. Their starting pitcher ha...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Texas Rangers

Early-game edge goes to the home side given superior 2025 starting pitching depth. Both teams rested extensively so bullpen usage is unknown...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Texas Rangers

The first five innings often showcase the starting pitching and initial offensive matchups. Based on the general strength of the Texas Range...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox's starting pitcher, Erick Fedde, has been more consistent in the early innings than Jon Gray. While the Rangers' offense has s...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Starting pitchers are crucial; without specific matchup, home advantage and Rangers' offense in early innings provide slight edge. White Sox...

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Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers are favored as the home team at Globe Life Field with equivalent recent form (2-3 record) versus Chicago's identical 2-3 stret...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 63% Texas Rangers

MLB's probable-pitchers feeds list Chicago's Noah Schultz (LHP, ~5.60 ERA) as the White Sox starter for July 21 while Texas had not locked a...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have a slight edge in recent form, with two wins in their last five games compared to the Texas Rangers' one win. Addi...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers hold a clear talent edge over the White Sox per training data through late 2025. Both clubs enter with identical 2-3 records i...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Texas Rangers

Based on historical team performance available in my training data, the Texas Rangers, as the home team and a more recently successful franc...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chicago White Sox

While both teams have identical recent records, the White Sox have a slight edge due to their projected starting pitcher, Erick Fedde, who h...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers have home-field advantage at Globe Life Field, and the White Sox have been inconsistent on the road. Both teams have similar r...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Combined offensive output in the last 5 matches totals 36 runs across both teams (22 Rangers + 14 White Sox), averaging 3.6 runs per team pe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over

Noah Schultz's season numbers (high ERA, walk tendency) increase the likelihood of multi-run innings against Chicago starters, and both team...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent pitching performances recently, leading to higher-scoring games. The ballpark dimensions at Globe Life Fi...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Domed stadium eliminates weather suppression of scoring. Both lineups have shown inconsistent but occasionally explosive offense in 2025 dat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Over 8.5

The brief indicates both teams have been conceding a significant number of runs recently (White Sox 24, Rangers 29 in five games), suggestin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The Rangers have been scoring at a higher rate recently, and the weather forecast suggests favorable conditions for offense. While Fedde has...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Both teams have been scoring moderately, and the over/under markets in MLB often lean toward the over given modern offense. The White Sox bu...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Texas Rangers -1.5

Texas has a marginal but meaningful home-field edge and a 2-point run-differential advantage per game over the last 5 matches. At -1.5, the...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Texas Rangers -1.5

Given the matchup imbalance (Chicago sending Noah Schultz, a high-ERA lefty) versus an as-yet-unannounced Rangers starter and the Rangers' s...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Chicago White Sox

The game is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having similar recent performances. The spread of -1.5 indicates a narrow marg...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Rangers are the stronger club at home and should cover a modest run line against a weaker White Sox side. Recent form shows Texas scoring mo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Texas Rangers -1.5

Building on the H2H prediction, if the Texas Rangers are favored to win at home, their stronger offensive potential and overall roster depth...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Chicago White Sox

Given the slight pitching advantage for the White Sox and the Rangers' defensive struggles at home, the White Sox are slightly favored to co...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Texas Rangers

Rangers have a slight edge at home but run line covers are unpredictable. The +1.5 for away is common. Slight lean to home covering due to l...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

63
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Texas Rangers

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Texas Rangers

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago White Sox

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago White Sox

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1017–1031 · 50%
-722.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: f13208dfbf731fee…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 21 · 00:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13749,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Globe Life Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-21T00:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "Texas Rangers"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 24
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 12,
            "home": 12
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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