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MLB Major League Baseball · Globe Life Field
Upcoming · in 88h 15m
Texas Rangers logo

Texas RangersvsBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers are favored at home with superior recent rest (30 days vs 16), though both teams are struggling offensively (22 runs in 5 matc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Texas Rangers

The Rangers are at home in a retractable‑roof, climate‑controlled Globe Life Field (reduces variance), arrive better rested (home side rest...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have a stronger recent form, winning 1 of their last 5 matches, while the Rangers have lost 3 of their last 5. Additionally, the...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Texas Rangers

Rangers hold slight home edge at Globe Life Field despite similar recent records. Orioles' 1-4 form and heavy rest disparity suggest fatigue...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Texas Rangers

Based on training data up to 2025-09, the Texas Rangers, as the home team, are given a slight edge. Both teams show similar recent struggles...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles hold a better overall season record than the Texas Rangers, indicating a more consistent performance throughout the se...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Texas Rangers

Predicted from training data through 2025-09; both teams have poor recent form, but the Rangers have the edge at home. Baltimore has lost fo...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Both offenses are severely depleted, combining for only 44 runs in 10 matches (4.4 runs per team, per game). Texas conceded 29 runs in 5 mat...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

Globe Life Field's retractable roof and frequent closed‑roof policy in hot Texas summer reduces wind carry and generally suppresses run scor...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent scoring in recent games, but the Orioles' recent form suggests they may score more runs. The weather fore...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both teams average over 5 runs per game recently. Dome environment at Globe Life neutralizes wind but favors contact. Training knowledge ind...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown a tendency for higher-scoring games recently, with their last five matches averaging over 9 runs combined. Globe Life...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

With Corbin Burnes and Nathan Eovaldi, both known for their strikeout ability but also prone to giving up hits, a moderate total is expected...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Predicted from training data through 2025-09; both teams have been scoring and conceding around 4-5 runs per game recently. Globe Life Field...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Texas Rangers -1

Rangers' form edge (2-3 vs 1-4) and significant rest advantage (30 vs 16 days) support a small margin favor. Typical run-line spreads sit at...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Texas Rangers -1.5

Given the home/rest advantage, pitcher‑friendly venue, and Baltimore's rough recent run prevention, the Rangers are reasonably likely to win...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles' recent form and rest days give them an edge, but the game is expected to be competitive. A close game is anticipated, with the...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Texas Rangers

Texas receives home run-line value with extra rest. Orioles bullpen likely taxed after poor recent results. Historical matchups favor Ranger...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Baltimore Orioles +1.5

While the Rangers are slightly favored for the outright win, the recent form of both teams suggests a close contest. The Orioles, despite th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Baltimore Orioles

Given the Orioles' slightly better season performance and their ability to win games by more than one run, they are favored on the spread. T...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Texas Rangers

Predicted from training data through 2025-09; the Rangers are slight favorites at home with an extra rest day. The spread of 1.5 runs is clo...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early innings typically see lower run production as both teams feel out starting pitchers and bullpens are fresh. With both offenses ranked...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% Texas Rangers

Early innings favor the home side because of the combination of likely better-rested pitching and bullpen plans for the visitors, plus the c...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles' recent form and rest days suggest they may start strong in the first five innings. The Rangers' recent losses indicate potentia...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Texas Rangers

Early innings favor the home side with fresher pitching. Orioles recent struggles extend to opening frames. Limited data shows Rangers compe...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Texas Rangers

The first five innings often reflect the starting pitching matchup, which is unavailable from training data up to 2025-09. However, aligning...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Texas Rangers

Predicted from training data through 2025-09; the first five innings often favor the team with the better starting pitcher, and the Rangers...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% over

The early game total is set at 4.5. Both starting pitchers, Burnes and Eovaldi, can be susceptible to giving up runs early if they are not i...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Baltimore Orioles

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Texas Rangers

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Texas Rangers

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

52
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 82c0982722016218…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 8 · 00:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 21160,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Globe Life Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-08T00:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Texas Rangers"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 16,
            "home": 30
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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