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MLB
Final 3–4
Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsWashington Nationals

Washington Nationals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–4 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Tampa Bay Rays 3–4 Washington Nationals

All 7 AIs backed Tampa Bay Rays — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Tampa Bay Rays 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
3–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Tampa Bay Rays L

Tampa Bay Rays are favored at home in late June 2026. Without access to current 2026 season standings, recent form, or injury reports, this...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% Tampa Bay Rays L

Tampa Bay is the stronger team at home and the matchup data and previews show the Rays holding the edge in offense and bullpen depth; availa...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Tampa Bay Rays L

The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong home record of 24-9, while the Washington Nationals have a weaker away record of 13-10. Additionally, the R...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Tampa Bay Rays L

Rays hold a clear talent edge over the rebuilding Nationals in this neutral-park matchup. Training data through 2025 shows Tampa Bay consist...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Tampa Bay Rays L

Based on general team strength and historical performance trends observed in my training data, the Tampa Bay Rays typically field a more com...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Tampa Bay Rays L

Based on general MLB team performance trends and typical home-field advantage, the Tampa Bay Rays are slightly favored. Without specific lin...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Tampa Bay Rays L

The Rays are a stronger overall team with better pitching depth and a solid home record, while the Nationals are in a rebuilding phase. Tamp...

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Spread

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 L

Spreads of -1.5 are tight enough that even home favorites face real pressure to cover. While Tampa Bay has a marginal edge at home, a 1.5-ru...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% home_ -1.5

Given the Rays' home advantage, stronger lineup and the matchup previews showing the home team favored on the moneyline, the Rays covering a...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays L

The Rays' strong home performance and superior overall record suggest they are likely to win by at least one run, covering the -1 spread.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 L

Rays are the superior club and should be able to win by multiple runs more often than not. Limited rest differential and home field give a s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 L

Favoring the Rays to win by more than one run aligns with their general reputation as a solid team, especially at home. If they are indeed t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Washington Nationals L

Given the slight favor towards the home team in head-to-head, predicting the spread involves considering the margin of victory. A small lean...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 L

The Rays are favored but not by a large margin, and the Nationals can keep games close. Covering a 1.5-run spread is difficult, especially w...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 L

MLB games in late June typically see moderate run production. Without current pitcher assignments or bullpen health data, a slight lean towa...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under W

The posted total for this game is 8 (Fox Sports preview) and both probable starters listed in previews are mid-rotation arms (Cavalli / Miko...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the Nationals averaging 5.4 runs per game and the Rays averaging 4.5. Given the offens...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups feature contact-oriented hitters that can produce runs against average pitching. Historical averages for similar Rays-Nationals...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Under 8.5 W

MLB totals can fluctuate significantly, but given the Rays' historical emphasis on pitching and generally strong bullpen, an Under pick seem...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over L

MLB games typically have a wide range of scores. Without specific pitching matchups or offensive/defensive recent performance, a slightly hi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Under 8.5

Both teams have offenses that can be inconsistent, and the Rays have strong starting pitching. The Nationals lack elite run producers, and t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 4.5

First-five-inning markets typically favor lower-scoring outcomes due to both pitchers being fresher and bullpens uninvolved. A 4.5 run total...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays should hold a first-five innings edge because they hit well at home and the Nationals' probable starter (Cade Cavalli / Miles Mikolas l...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' strong home performance and superior overall record suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Tampa Bay Rays

Starting pitching edge favors Tampa Bay in the opening frame. Rays typically jump on lesser opponents early before bullpens enter. Data thro...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Tampa Bay Rays

The first five innings often showcase the strength of the starting pitchers. The Rays have historically developed and acquired strong starti...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Tampa Bay Rays (F5)

The Rays have a strong starting rotation, and early in the game their starter will likely handle the Nationals' lineup. Washington's startin...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

In baseball, the first five innings often set the tone for the game. Without specific pitching matchups or early-game offensive trends, ther...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

66
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Tampa Bay Rays

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Tampa Bay Rays

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 5fe757066221a63d…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4415,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Nationals",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-17T05:51:45+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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