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MLB
Final 5–2
Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsWashington Nationals

Washington Nationals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–2 Locked 24picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Tampa Bay Rays 5–2 Washington Nationals

All 6 AIs backed Tampa Bay Rays — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Tampa Bay Rays 6/6
Correct calls
6/6
Final
5–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 L

MLB totals in mid-June typically trend toward slightly elevated run scoring as weather warms and offenses find rhythm post-spring. Neither t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities this season, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring game. The over 2.5 total runs seems like...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Low-scoring tendencies from both pitching staffs in 2025 data favor the under. Interleague games between these clubs historically stay below...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 W

Assuming a totals line of 8.5, Tropicana Field is historically a pitcher-friendly park, often leading to lower-scoring games. Both teams, pa...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% under

Both teams, based on historical performance trends for teams like these, tend to have strong pitching and can be prone to low-scoring games,...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5 L

Both teams have had middling run production, but Rays' ballpark is favorable to hitters. Nationals' pitching depth is questionable. No defin...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Tampa Bay Rays

In a five-inning subset, starting pitcher quality becomes more dominant than late-game bullpen decisions. The Rays have historically investe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been strong in the early innings at home, which could give them an edge in the first five innings against the Nationals.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays starting pitcher typically dominates early innings against weaker lineups. Nationals offense slow to adjust on the road. Training data...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays typically feature strong starting pitching and efficient early-game offense, which often allows them to establish a lead in the ini...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 59% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays historically perform well early in games due to strong starting pitching, which often sets the tone. The Nationals may ta...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays

First five innings favor the team with stronger starting pitching and less bullpen variance. The Rays historically have better starting rota...

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Spread

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Tampa Bay Rays W

A -1.5 spread for the home team is moderately tight, suggesting the market sees this as close to competitive. Given historical Rays strength...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

Given the Rays' strong home performance and the Nationals' road struggles, the Rays are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

Rays expected to win by multiple runs at home given superior depth. Nationals road struggles persist from prior seasons. Training data throu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

If the Tampa Bay Rays are the stronger team, benefiting from home-field advantage and better overall pitching, a win by multiple runs is pla...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Tampa Bay Rays

Given the projected advantage of the Tampa Bay Rays in pitching and overall team consistency, they are expected to cover a modest spread if...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

Rays are the better team but covering a 1.5-run spread in MLB is always uncertain. Without specific lineup or pitching data, the spread is e...

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Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Tampa Bay Rays W

As of my training cutoff (September 2025), the Rays have typically been a competitive AL East team with strong pitching depth, while the Nat...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

The Tampa Bay Rays have been performing well at home, with a strong home record this season. The Washington Nationals have struggled on the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Tampa Bay Rays W

Rays hold home-field advantage and stronger overall roster construction from 2025 data. Nationals continue as a rebuilding club with weaker...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

Based on historical team performance trends up to my last training data, the Tampa Bay Rays typically maintain a competitive edge, especiall...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

Based on general MLB team performance trends and historical data, the Tampa Bay Rays typically exhibit stronger pitching and a more consiste...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Tampa Bay Rays W

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Rays have been a stronger team overall, especially at home. The Nationals are in a rebuilding ph...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Tampa Bay Rays

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Tampa Bay Rays

57
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: fd4869717f4f885b…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 19 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3793,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Nationals",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:03:01+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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