Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals
Kickoff · Thu, Jun 25 · 16:10 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
b463d95738399b9b…
- Kickoff
- Thu, Jun 25 · 16:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 6072,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-25T16:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Kansas City Royals",
"home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-22T05:45:13+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
56%
Tampa Bay Rays |
52%
Under |
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
55%
Under 4.5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
Tampa Bay Rays As of my training cutoff (April 2025), the Rays have been a more consistently competitive team in recent seasons with better pitching depth...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City have historically emphasized pitching-first strategies with relatively modest offensive output. Without live...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 The Rays' home-field advantage combined with historical roster depth gives a modest edge to cover a 1.5-run spread. However, with no current...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Under 4.5 Early-inning run-scoring often depends on bullpen strength and offensive sequencing in the first five frames. Given both teams' historical p... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
over |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays with slight home edge in interleague play and Royals struggling on the road historically. No live 2...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5 with Rays home games trending slightly higher. Both lineups feature...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays covering the run line at home more often than not against AL Central clubs. Royals bullpen inconsis...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 indicates Rays starters hold slight first-five advantage at home. Royals offense historically slower to score... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
53%
Under 8.5 |
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
56%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on my training data through early 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a more consistent performance profile and stronger or...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs, the historical tendencies of the Tampa Bay Rays often involve strong pitching, contributing to l...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 The Tampa Bay Rays, historically, have a better track record of winning games by more than one run compared to the Kansas City Royals. This...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Tampa Bay Rays The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers. Given the Tampa Bay Rays' historical strength in pitching development and perfo... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
over |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
57%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically been a stronger team than the Kansas City Royals. The Rays typically exhibit be...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over The Rays' offense and pitching, when performing well, tend to lead to games with a moderate number of runs. Historically, their matchups can...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Given the perceived edge of the Tampa Bay Rays, they are more likely to cover a standard spread than the Kansas City Royals, especially if t...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
57%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays' starting pitchers have often provided strong early performances, and their offense can get going early. This suggests they might h... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
Over 8.5 |
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have been strong at home, while the Royals are inconsistent on the road. Rays' pitching advantage and historical edge give them the...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 Both teams have average offenses and pitching staffs, with the game at Tropicana Field. Expected total around 8.5 runs; slight lean to over...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Rays are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging given the Royals' ability to keep games close. Rays' home advantage is offset...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays' early-game pitching and lineup depth give them an advantage in the first five innings. Royals may struggle against a solid starter. Tr... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Tampa Bay Rays 5/5 |
over 2/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 3/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays 4/5 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 5/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
As of my training cutoff (April 2025), the Rays have been a more consistently competitive team in recent seasons with better pitching depth...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Rays
Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays with slight home edge in interleague play and Royals struggling on the road historically. No live 2...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on my training data through early 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a more consistent performance profile and stronger or...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically been a stronger team than the Kansas City Royals. The Rays typically exhibit be...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have been strong at home, while the Royals are inconsistent on the road. Rays' pitching advantage and historical edge give them the...
Over / Under
Consensusover 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Under
Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City have historically emphasized pitching-first strategies with relatively modest offensive output. Without live...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5 with Rays home games trending slightly higher. Both lineups feature...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Under 8.5
Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs, the historical tendencies of the Tampa Bay Rays often involve strong pitching, contributing to l...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
The Rays' offense and pitching, when performing well, tend to lead to games with a moderate number of runs. Historically, their matchups can...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 8.5
Both teams have average offenses and pitching staffs, with the game at Tropicana Field. Expected total around 8.5 runs; slight lean to over...
Spread
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays -1.5 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
The Rays' home-field advantage combined with historical roster depth gives a modest edge to cover a 1.5-run spread. However, with no current...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Tampa Bay Rays
Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays covering the run line at home more often than not against AL Central clubs. Royals bullpen inconsis...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
The Tampa Bay Rays, historically, have a better track record of winning games by more than one run compared to the Kansas City Royals. This...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
Given the perceived edge of the Tampa Bay Rays, they are more likely to cover a standard spread than the Kansas City Royals, especially if t...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Rays are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging given the Royals' ability to keep games close. Rays' home advantage is offset...
First 5 innings
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Under 4.5
Early-inning run-scoring often depends on bullpen strength and offensive sequencing in the first five frames. Given both teams' historical p...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Rays
Training data through 2025-09 indicates Rays starters hold slight first-five advantage at home. Royals offense historically slower to score...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers. Given the Tampa Bay Rays' historical strength in pitching development and perfo...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
57%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' starting pitchers have often provided strong early performances, and their offense can get going early. This suggests they might h...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays' early-game pitching and lineup depth give them an advantage in the first five innings. Royals may struggle against a solid starter. Tr...
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