Tampa Bay RaysvsKansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays 13–2 Kansas City Royals
All 7 AIs backed Tampa Bay Rays — and reality agreed.
- AI lean
- Tampa Bay Rays 7/7
- Correct calls
- 7/7
- Final
- 13–2
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
4 markets · 7 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
under 2/7 models |
Tampa Bay Rays 5/7 models |
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 4/7 models |
Tampa Bay Rays 7/7 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
52%
Under
L
|
55%
Under 4.5 |
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
|
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City have historically emphasized pitching-first strategies with relatively modest offensive output. Without live...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Under 4.5 Early-inning run-scoring often depends on bullpen strength and offensive sequencing in the first five frames. Given both teams' historical p...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 The Rays' home-field advantage combined with historical roster depth gives a modest edge to cover a 1.5-run spread. However, with no current...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
Tampa Bay Rays As of my training cutoff (April 2025), the Rays have been a more consistently competitive team in recent seasons with better pitching depth... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
60%
under
L
|
50%
Kansas City Royals |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
|
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
under Both starting pitchers (Seth Lugo ~3.69 ERA, Ian Seymour ~4.98 ERA) and the dome factor at Tropicana point toward a controlled scoring envir...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
50%
Kansas City Royals For the first five innings (3-way: away/home/draw) I favor the Royals (Seth Lugo) to be ahead or at least keep KC level through five because...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Tampa Bay's home record and the matchup favoring Ian Seymour at Tropicana make the Rays -1.5 runline a slight favorite — the club tends to w...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays are favored at home with Ian Seymour starting for Tampa Bay against Seth Lugo for Kansas City; Seymour's home/usage and the Rays' s...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
|
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
under
L
|
55%
Tampa Bay Rays |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
65%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
under Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, suggesting a lower-scoring game is likely.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have been strong in the early innings at home, which may give them an edge in the first five innings of this game.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays' strong home performance and the Royals' road struggles suggest the Rays are likely to win by at least two runs.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have been performing well recently, with a strong home record. The Kansas City Royals have struggled on the road, which g...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
51%
over |
51%
Tampa Bay Rays |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays |
53%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5 with Rays home games trending slightly higher. Both lineups feature...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 indicates Rays starters hold slight first-five advantage at home. Royals offense historically slower to score...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays covering the run line at home more often than not against AL Central clubs. Royals bullpen inconsis...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Rays Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays with slight home edge in interleague play and Royals struggling on the road historically. No live 2... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
53%
Under 8.5
L
|
56%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
|
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs, the historical tendencies of the Tampa Bay Rays often involve strong pitching, contributing to l...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Tampa Bay Rays The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers. Given the Tampa Bay Rays' historical strength in pitching development and perfo...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 The Tampa Bay Rays, historically, have a better track record of winning games by more than one run compared to the Kansas City Royals. This...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on my training data through early 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a more consistent performance profile and stronger or... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
over |
57%
Tampa Bay Rays |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over The Rays' offense and pitching, when performing well, tend to lead to games with a moderate number of runs. Historically, their matchups can...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
57%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays' starting pitchers have often provided strong early performances, and their offense can get going early. This suggests they might h...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Given the perceived edge of the Tampa Bay Rays, they are more likely to cover a standard spread than the Kansas City Royals, especially if t...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically been a stronger team than the Kansas City Royals. The Rays typically exhibit be... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Over 8.5 |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
|
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 Both teams have average offenses and pitching staffs, with the game at Tropicana Field. Expected total around 8.5 runs; slight lean to over...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays' early-game pitching and lineup depth give them an advantage in the first five innings. Royals may struggle against a solid starter. Tr...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Rays are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging given the Royals' ability to keep games close. Rays' home advantage is offset...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have been strong at home, while the Royals are inconsistent on the road. Rays' pitching advantage and historical edge give them the... |
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Over / Under
Consensusunder 2/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Under
L
Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City have historically emphasized pitching-first strategies with relatively modest offensive output. Without live...
GPT-5 Mini
60%
under
L
Both starting pitchers (Seth Lugo ~3.69 ERA, Ian Seymour ~4.98 ERA) and the dome factor at Tropicana point toward a controlled scoring envir...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
under
L
Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, suggesting a lower-scoring game is likely.
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5 with Rays home games trending slightly higher. Both lineups feature...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Under 8.5
L
Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs, the historical tendencies of the Tampa Bay Rays often involve strong pitching, contributing to l...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
The Rays' offense and pitching, when performing well, tend to lead to games with a moderate number of runs. Historically, their matchups can...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 8.5
Both teams have average offenses and pitching staffs, with the game at Tropicana Field. Expected total around 8.5 runs; slight lean to over...
First 5 innings
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 5/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Under 4.5
Early-inning run-scoring often depends on bullpen strength and offensive sequencing in the first five frames. Given both teams' historical p...
GPT-5 Mini
50%
Kansas City Royals
For the first five innings (3-way: away/home/draw) I favor the Royals (Seth Lugo) to be ahead or at least keep KC level through five because...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have been strong in the early innings at home, which may give them an edge in the first five innings of this game.
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Rays
Training data through 2025-09 indicates Rays starters hold slight first-five advantage at home. Royals offense historically slower to score...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers. Given the Tampa Bay Rays' historical strength in pitching development and perfo...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
57%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' starting pitchers have often provided strong early performances, and their offense can get going early. This suggests they might h...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays' early-game pitching and lineup depth give them an advantage in the first five innings. Royals may struggle against a solid starter. Tr...
Spread
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays -1.5 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
The Rays' home-field advantage combined with historical roster depth gives a modest edge to cover a 1.5-run spread. However, with no current...
GPT-5 Mini
52%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
Tampa Bay's home record and the matchup favoring Ian Seymour at Tropicana make the Rays -1.5 runline a slight favorite — the club tends to w...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
The Rays' strong home performance and the Royals' road struggles suggest the Rays are likely to win by at least two runs.
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Tampa Bay Rays
Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays covering the run line at home more often than not against AL Central clubs. Royals bullpen inconsis...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
The Tampa Bay Rays, historically, have a better track record of winning games by more than one run compared to the Kansas City Royals. This...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
Given the perceived edge of the Tampa Bay Rays, they are more likely to cover a standard spread than the Kansas City Royals, especially if t...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
W
Rays are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging given the Royals' ability to keep games close. Rays' home advantage is offset...
Match winner
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 7/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
As of my training cutoff (April 2025), the Rays have been a more consistently competitive team in recent seasons with better pitching depth...
GPT-5 Mini
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
The Rays are favored at home with Ian Seymour starting for Tampa Bay against Seth Lugo for Kansas City; Seymour's home/usage and the Rays' s...
GPT-4o Mini
65%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
The Tampa Bay Rays have been performing well recently, with a strong home record. The Kansas City Royals have struggled on the road, which g...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
Training data through 2025-09 shows Rays with slight home edge in interleague play and Royals struggling on the road historically. No live 2...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
Based on my training data through early 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate a more consistent performance profile and stronger or...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically been a stronger team than the Kansas City Royals. The Rays typically exhibit be...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
W
The Rays have been strong at home, while the Royals are inconsistent on the road. Rays' pitching advantage and historical edge give them the...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini
Tampa Bay Rays
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Tampa Bay Rays
DeepSeek V3
Tampa Bay Rays
GPT-5 Mini
Tampa Bay Rays
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Tampa Bay Rays
Claude Haiku 4.5
Tampa Bay Rays
Grok 4 Fast
Tampa Bay Rays
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
fe7a8a6c57d16894…
- Kickoff
- Thu, Jun 25 · 16:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 6072,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-25T16:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Kansas City Royals",
"home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-23T18:19:17+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
16 tool calls · 6 sources
6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.