Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals
Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
bd7701afacb75e2b…
- Kickoff
- Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 5708,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-23T22:40:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Kansas City Royals",
"home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-20T05:51:37+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Tampa Bay Rays |
58%
Under |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays |
56%
Under 4.5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Tampa Bay Rays As of my training data (September 2025), the Rays have consistently been a stronger franchise with better depth and pitching talent than the...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under Both the Rays and Royals have historically leaned toward pitching-focused lineups rather than offensive powerhouses. June weather conditions...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays slight edge in roster depth and pitching gives them a marginal advantage in a run-line context, though this is a close matchup. A -...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Under 4.5 Early-inning scoring tends to be suppressed in matchups between pitching-heavy teams. Both the Rays and Royals prioritize strong starting ro... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
over |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays hold a slight edge at home based on historical performance patterns against Kansas City. Both clubs were middling teams in re...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Scoring trends in Rays vs Royals games have leaned slightly above average in prior years. Pitching staffs for both sides were inconsistent e...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays at home have covered run lines at a modest rate against weaker or comparable opponents like the Royals. Game script tends to favor the...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Tampa Bay Rays Early game trends mirror overall home advantage for Tampa Bay in limited historical samples. Starters for these clubs rarely dominate throug... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
Under 8.5 |
53%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
58%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on historical trends from my training data through late 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate more consistent competitiveness...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 8.5 The Tampa Bay Rays typically lean on strong pitching and can be involved in lower-scoring games, while the Kansas City Royals' offense often...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 If the Tampa Bay Rays secure a victory, their historical pattern from my training data suggests they often do so by more than a single run,...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have a historical emphasis on strong starting pitching and solid early-game execution, often allowing them to build or ma... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
over |
55%
Kansas City Royals |
53%
over |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays generally have a stronger historical performance and are often favored in matchups against the Ka...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Given the general offensive and pitching tendencies of both teams based on training data, a moderate number of runs is plausible. The over i...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Kansas City Royals The spread is difficult to determine without live odds or specific team performance metrics. However, a slight lean towards the away team co...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
over Early game dynamics can be influenced by starting pitchers and early offensive momentum. A slight lean towards the over in the first five in... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
over |
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays have strong home record and better overall roster, while Royals are rebuilding. Training data through 2025 season suggests Rays are sig...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Rays have solid offense, Royals improved slightly in 2025. Both bullpens average, but Tropicana Field is neutral for runs. Slight edge to ov...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Rays are favored but covering -1.5 requires winning by 2 runs. Royals could keep it close. Lower confidence due to run-line volatility.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
60%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays typically have strong starting pitching and early offense. Royals weak early. Rays likely lead through 5 innings. |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Tampa Bay Rays 5/5 |
over 3/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays 2/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays 3/5 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 5/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Tampa Bay Rays
As of my training data (September 2025), the Rays have consistently been a stronger franchise with better depth and pitching talent than the...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays hold a slight edge at home based on historical performance patterns against Kansas City. Both clubs were middling teams in re...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on historical trends from my training data through late 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays generally demonstrate more consistent competitiveness...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on training data, the Tampa Bay Rays generally have a stronger historical performance and are often favored in matchups against the Ka...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays have strong home record and better overall roster, while Royals are rebuilding. Training data through 2025 season suggests Rays are sig...
Over / Under
Consensusover 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Under
Both the Rays and Royals have historically leaned toward pitching-focused lineups rather than offensive powerhouses. June weather conditions...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Scoring trends in Rays vs Royals games have leaned slightly above average in prior years. Pitching staffs for both sides were inconsistent e...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Under 8.5
The Tampa Bay Rays typically lean on strong pitching and can be involved in lower-scoring games, while the Kansas City Royals' offense often...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
Given the general offensive and pitching tendencies of both teams based on training data, a moderate number of runs is plausible. The over i...
DeepSeek V3
55%
over
Rays have solid offense, Royals improved slightly in 2025. Both bullpens average, but Tropicana Field is neutral for runs. Slight edge to ov...
Spread
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays slight edge in roster depth and pitching gives them a marginal advantage in a run-line context, though this is a close matchup. A -...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays at home have covered run lines at a modest rate against weaker or comparable opponents like the Royals. Game script tends to favor the...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
If the Tampa Bay Rays secure a victory, their historical pattern from my training data suggests they often do so by more than a single run,...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Kansas City Royals
The spread is difficult to determine without live odds or specific team performance metrics. However, a slight lean towards the away team co...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Rays are favored but covering -1.5 requires winning by 2 runs. Royals could keep it close. Lower confidence due to run-line volatility.
First 5 innings
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
56%
Under 4.5
Early-inning scoring tends to be suppressed in matchups between pitching-heavy teams. Both the Rays and Royals prioritize strong starting ro...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Rays
Early game trends mirror overall home advantage for Tampa Bay in limited historical samples. Starters for these clubs rarely dominate throug...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have a historical emphasis on strong starting pitching and solid early-game execution, often allowing them to build or ma...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
over
Early game dynamics can be influenced by starting pitchers and early offensive momentum. A slight lean towards the over in the first five in...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays typically have strong starting pitching and early offense. Royals weak early. Rays likely lead through 5 innings.
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