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MLB Major League Baseball · Tropicana Field
Upcoming · in 79h 52m
Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Tampa Bay Rays

Both teams are in poor recent form (Rays 2-3, Guardians 1-4 in last 5), but Tampa Bay has the home-field advantage at Tropicana Field and a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is the healthier, better-rested home side with a stronger projected lineup and more bullpen availability; Tropicana Field is a dom...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

Despite recent struggles, the Guardians have a slightly better overall record and have historically performed well against the Rays. The abs...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays hold a slight home edge at Tropicana Field and enter with marginally better recent results (WWLLL) than the Guardians (LLLLW). Both clu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Tampa Bay Rays

My predictions are based on training data through 2025-09. The Tampa Bay Rays typically leverage their home-field advantage at Tropicana Fie...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have a slight edge due to home-field advantage at Tropicana Field, which tends to suppress offense. While both teams have...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are on a 17-day rest, which may help reset their form after a losing streak, but gives rust risk. The Rays have a slight home-...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Combined run differential across both teams' last 5 matches is marginally run-heavy: Rays scored 18 and conceded 21 (39 combined runs over 5...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Domed Tropicana Field and an effective Cleveland starter (Parker Messick, 2.68 ERA) push the expectation toward fewer runs; both teams have...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent pitching performances recently, leading to higher-scoring games. The ballpark dimensions at Tropicana Fie...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Both lineups have been held to low run totals lately and the dome at Tropicana Field suppresses extra-base production. Extended rest for bot...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5

My predictions are based on training data through 2025-09. Tropicana Field is historically known as a pitcher-friendly park, often suppressi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% under

Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly park, and historical data suggests games here tend to be lower-scoring. With both teams' recent offens...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over

Both teams have scored moderately in recent games, averaging around 3-4 runs per game. With rest and no key injuries reported, we expect a t...

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Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5

Home-field advantage and superior recent form (2-3 vs 1-4) support a Rays moneyline lean, but the -1.5 run spread requires a margin of 2+ ru...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays -1.5 (runline) looks reasonable because they have the stronger lineup projection at Tropicana and superior bullpen availability, increa...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' slightly better overall record and the potential impact of the Rays' injuries give them an edge. However, the spread is narro...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

The Rays' home record and the Guardians' four-game losing streak support a narrow home win by more than one run. Limited recent scoring favo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cleveland Guardians +1.5

My predictions are based on training data through 2025-09. Given the recent inconsistent form of both teams and without specific pitching ma...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians

While the Rays are favored to win, the Guardians' recent form, though poor, shows they can keep games close. A -1.5 spread requires a more d...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cleveland Guardians +1.5

The Guardians are slight underdogs but should keep the game close. The +1.5 run line offers good value as Cleveland's recent losses have bee...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 4.5 (runs, first 5 innings)

Early-inning scoring is often suppressed by starting pitchers in their opener. Both teams' recent form shows moderate run-scoring across ful...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays are marginal favorites through the first five innings because their projected top-of-order (Caminero, Díaz, Aranda) can manufacture ear...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have shown better early-game performance recently, and the potential absence of key Rays players could affect their early-game...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Tampa Bay Rays

Starting-pitcher form and home-field platoon advantages typically decide the first five innings; the Rays benefit from both factors here. Lo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Tampa Bay Rays

My predictions are based on training data through 2025-09. Historically, the Rays have a strong track record of developing and utilizing eff...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Cleveland Guardians

Early innings often favor the visiting team's starting pitcher if they are strong, but no specific starter info is available. With rest, bot...

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First five innings total runs

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% under

Pitching is typically stronger in the early innings of baseball games, and with both starters expected to perform adequately and the Tropica...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Tampa Bay Rays

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cleveland Guardians

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cleveland Guardians

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Tampa Bay Rays

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3a9c6c090bdcc4a7…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 26 · 16:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 15632,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Tropicana Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-26T16:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 26 Jul 2026 16:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 17,
            "home": 17
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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