Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 22:10 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
c16334b1a11dfe29…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 27 · 22:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7051,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-27T22:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
"home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-24T05:48:48+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Arizona Diamondbacks |
52%
Over 8.5 |
53%
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
54%
Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona has historically been a stronger offensive team with better depth in their lineup compared to Tampa Bay's budget-constrained roster....
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Both Tampa Bay and Arizona feature moderate offensive capabilities historically, though neither is known for extreme run production or shutd...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Arizona's structural roster advantage and historical offensive depth support a modest edge in a neutral venue. A -1.5 spread favoring Arizon...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Arizona Diamondbacks Early-inning advantage typically correlates with lineup strength and batting order depth. Arizona's offensively superior roster composition... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
65%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
over |
60%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong home record of 21-9 and are leading the AL East with a 37-24 record. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 13-17...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have similar run-scoring rates this season, with the Rays averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Diamondbacks 4.3. Given the offensi...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays' strong home performance and the Diamondbacks' struggles on the road suggest the Rays are likely to cover a -1 spread.
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays' home advantage and the Diamondbacks' away struggles suggest the Rays are likely to lead after the first five innings.
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
over |
52%
Tampa Bay Rays |
51%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Rays Rays hold slight home edge in training data through 2025. Both clubs project as average with no clear favorite. Pick reflects neutral venue...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Scoring environments in 2025 favored the over in similar matchups. Pitching staffs project as average rather than dominant. Warm June weathe...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Rays Home field provides a modest run advantage in 2025 data. No major injury edges known. Slight lean to Rays on the spread.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Tampa Bay Rays First-five results track closely to full-game home edge in historical samples. Starters expected to be solid but not shutdown. Training data... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Tampa Bay Rays |
52%
Under 8.5 |
58%
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 |
56%
Tampa Bay Rays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on my training data through early 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays consistently demonstrated strong pitching and a disciplined offensive appro...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under 8.5 My knowledge up to 2023 suggests the Tampa Bay Rays are known for strong starting pitching and efficient bullpen management, which often con...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 Even when the Tampa Bay Rays are favored, the Arizona Diamondbacks have historically shown a tendency to play competitive games, often keepi...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Tampa Bay Rays Based on my training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically excelled in the early stages of games due to strong starting pitching and a... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
62%
Tampa Bay Rays |
55%
Over 8.5 |
35%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
52%
Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have been strong at home, and their pitching depth edges Arizona's inconsistent lineup. The Diamondbacks have a slightly better off...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 Both teams have average bullpens and the Rays' recent games have seen moderate scoring. Arizona's offense can erupt, while Tampa Bay's lineu...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 The Rays are likely to win, but covering -1.5 is less probable given Arizona's ability to keep games close. The spread offers limited value...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona's starting pitching has been solid in early innings, and the Rays' bullpen is stronger late, making the first five more competitive... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Tampa Bay Rays 4/5 |
Over 8.5 2/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays 2/5 |
Tampa Bay Rays 3/5 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona has historically been a stronger offensive team with better depth in their lineup compared to Tampa Bay's budget-constrained roster....
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
65%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong home record of 21-9 and are leading the AL East with a 37-24 record. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 13-17...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays hold slight home edge in training data through 2025. Both clubs project as average with no clear favorite. Pick reflects neutral venue...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on my training data through early 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays consistently demonstrated strong pitching and a disciplined offensive appro...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
62%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have been strong at home, and their pitching depth edges Arizona's inconsistent lineup. The Diamondbacks have a slightly better off...
Over / Under
ConsensusOver 8.5 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Both Tampa Bay and Arizona feature moderate offensive capabilities historically, though neither is known for extreme run production or shutd...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have similar run-scoring rates this season, with the Rays averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Diamondbacks 4.3. Given the offensi...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Scoring environments in 2025 favored the over in similar matchups. Pitching staffs project as average rather than dominant. Warm June weathe...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Under 8.5
My knowledge up to 2023 suggests the Tampa Bay Rays are known for strong starting pitching and efficient bullpen management, which often con...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 8.5
Both teams have average bullpens and the Rays' recent games have seen moderate scoring. Arizona's offense can erupt, while Tampa Bay's lineu...
Spread
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
53%
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Arizona's structural roster advantage and historical offensive depth support a modest edge in a neutral venue. A -1.5 spread favoring Arizon...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' strong home performance and the Diamondbacks' struggles on the road suggest the Rays are likely to cover a -1 spread.
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Tampa Bay Rays
Home field provides a modest run advantage in 2025 data. No major injury edges known. Slight lean to Rays on the spread.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
Even when the Tampa Bay Rays are favored, the Arizona Diamondbacks have historically shown a tendency to play competitive games, often keepi...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
35%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
The Rays are likely to win, but covering -1.5 is less probable given Arizona's ability to keep games close. The spread offers limited value...
First 5 innings
ConsensusTampa Bay Rays 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Early-inning advantage typically correlates with lineup strength and batting order depth. Arizona's offensively superior roster composition...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' home advantage and the Diamondbacks' away struggles suggest the Rays are likely to lead after the first five innings.
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Rays
First-five results track closely to full-game home edge in historical samples. Starters expected to be solid but not shutdown. Training data...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
56%
Tampa Bay Rays
Based on my training data, the Tampa Bay Rays have historically excelled in the early stages of games due to strong starting pitching and a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona's starting pitching has been solid in early innings, and the Rays' bullpen is stronger late, making the first five more competitive...
Pro on-demand
Request an AI audit
Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
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