Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Final 6–1
Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsArizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–1 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Tampa Bay Rays 6–1 Arizona Diamondbacks

6 of 7 AIs leaned Tampa Bay Rays — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Tampa Bay Rays 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
6–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 L

Both teams have respectable offensive capabilities; Arizona particularly strong at the plate this season. Late June typically sees warmer co...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under 8.5

Tropicana Field is a dome (weather-neutral, generally friendlier to pitchers) and MLB's matchup pages show probables as TBD which usually pu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently, indicating a higher probability of the total runs exc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training data through 2024 indicates average MLB run totals trending slightly upward in summer months. Both teams feature lineups capable of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 W

The Tampa Bay Rays are historically known for their pitching-first approach and playing in a park (Tropicana Field) that typically suppresse...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Both teams have demonstrated a tendency towards higher-scoring games in their recent outings. Given the offensive potential of both lineups...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Tropicana Field is pitcher-friendly, but both bullpens have been inconsistent. Diamondbacks offense is slightly above league average, while...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Tampa Bay Rays W

Tampa Bay plays at home with a slight edge in recent consistency and bullpen depth, though Arizona has shown offensive upside this season. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Tampa Bay Rays W

Tampa Bay enters this Tropicana Field matchup with the stronger record and a home/dome advantage, while Arizona's rotation and lineup are in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled on the ro...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Tampa Bay Rays W

Training data through 2024 shows Rays with slight home edge in interleague play; Diamondbacks road performance historically weaker. No 2026-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Tampa Bay Rays W

Based on historical team performance and general strengths from training data through 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays typically exhibit strong pitc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks L

The Diamondbacks have a stronger recent record and appear to be in better form. While head-to-head data is not readily available for this sp...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays W

Rays have strong home-field advantage at Tropicana Field, while Diamondbacks struggle on artificial turf. Both teams have similar recent for...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 L

Arizona's offensive lineup and recent form suggest +1.5 offers value against Tampa Bay's home field. While Rays have structural advantages,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

The Rays' home advantage and overall stronger record give them the edge to win by multiple runs, but the spread (-1.5) is tougher than a str...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

Given the Rays' strong home performance and the Diamondbacks' road struggles, the Rays are likely to cover a -1 spread.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Tampa Bay Rays

Historical spread data favors home teams by roughly 52-54% in similar matchups. Rays pitching depth typically keeps games within run-line ra...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

Following the H2H pick, if the Rays secure a win, their historical strength in pitching and fundamental play often leads to victories by mor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are slightly favored based on perceived team strength and recent performance. While the spread line is not explicitly given...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 L

While Rays are slight favorites, the -1.5 line is steep for a team that often wins by 1 run. Diamondbacks have kept games close recently, co...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Starting pitchers in June typically feature lower-inning scoring as both teams deploy quality openers. Early innings often see more cautious...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Tampa Bay Rays

Early-inning advantage likely goes to the Rays in a dome with a more consistent rotation piece (CBS shows N. Martinez as the Rays probable i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been strong in the early innings at home, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Tampa Bay Rays

Early-inning data from training set shows home teams winning first-five slightly more often due to lineup order advantages. Both clubs have...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays traditionally excel with their starting pitching, often establishing control early in games. This tendency to get ahead a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have shown a stronger ability to start games effectively, both offensively and defensively, in recent matches. This suggest...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays' starting rotation is solid, typically keeping games close early. Diamondbacks' starters have been inconsistent, leading to early defic...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

60
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Tampa Bay Rays

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0d402acdd907625a…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 26 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6339,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-26T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:48:50+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →