Tampa Bay LightningvsFlorida Panthers
FPYour call
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AI predictions
4 markets · 3 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
32 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
over 1/3 models |
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 1/4 models |
Tampa Bay Lightning 3/3 models |
over 1/4 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
60%
Under 1.5 |
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 |
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
62%
Under 5.5 |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
60%
Under 1.5 First-period scoring in preseason tends to be conservative as teams are still building chemistry and starters may not have played a full gam...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 Spread pricing at -1.5 for a preseason home matchup is typical for the venue favorite, but preseason games are notably volatile and unpredic...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning This is a preseason match (late September 2026), so neither team is at full strength and rosters are still being finalized. Historical conte...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Under 5.5 Preseason games historically trend toward lower totals (typically 4.5–5.5 goals) because starters and top-six forwards play limited minutes... |
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
60%
Under 1.5 |
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 |
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
62%
Under 5.5 |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
60%
Under 1.5 First-period scoring in preseason tends to be conservative as teams are still building chemistry and starters may not have played a full gam...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 Spread pricing at -1.5 for a preseason home matchup is typical for the venue favorite, but preseason games are notably volatile and unpredic...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning This is a preseason match (late September 2026), so neither team is at full strength and rosters are still being finalized. Historical conte...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Under 5.5 Preseason games historically trend toward lower totals (typically 4.5–5.5 goals) because starters and top-six forwards play limited minutes... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
51%
over |
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
52%
over |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
51%
over These teams tend to start games with measured play leading to moderate first-period totals. Training data through 2025-09 shows first period...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning Lightning have covered the puck line at home more often than not in head-to-heads against Florida. Training data through 2025-09 supports a...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning hold a strong home record against Florida in recent seasons and benefit from familiarity at Benchmark International Aren...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Rivalry games between these teams have trended toward higher scoring outputs due to offensive skill on both sides. Training data through 202... |
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
51%
over |
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
52%
over |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
51%
over These teams tend to start games with measured play leading to moderate first-period totals. Training data through 2025-09 shows first period...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning Lightning have covered the puck line at home more often than not in head-to-heads against Florida. Training data through 2025-09 supports a...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning hold a strong home record against Florida in recent seasons and benefit from familiarity at Benchmark International Aren...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Rivalry games between these teams have trended toward higher scoring outputs due to offensive skill on both sides. Training data through 202... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
30%
Tie 0-0 |
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 |
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
54%
Under 6.5 |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
30%
Tie 0-0 With no live access, this uses training knowledge through 2025-09 and general NHL first-period patterns: rivalry games often start cautiousl...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 With no live access (training data through 2025-09), a -1 spread on a near pick'em rivalry game is risky. The Panthers' defensive structure...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning No live tools were available for this build, so this is based on training data through 2025-09 plus schedule logic for a Sep 2026 preseason...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Under 6.5 This is a training-knowledge estimate with no live access; both clubs have usually played lower-scoring, structured games against each other... |
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|
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
30%
Tie 0-0 |
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 |
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning |
54%
Under 6.5 |
|
|
First period winner
?
First period winner
First-period winner. Who is ahead at the end of the first period.
30%
Tie 0-0 With no live access, this uses training knowledge through 2025-09 and general NHL first-period patterns: rivalry games often start cautiousl...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 With no live access (training data through 2025-09), a -1 spread on a near pick'em rivalry game is risky. The Panthers' defensive structure...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning No live tools were available for this build, so this is based on training data through 2025-09 plus schedule logic for a Sep 2026 preseason...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Under 6.5 This is a training-knowledge estimate with no live access; both clubs have usually played lower-scoring, structured games against each other... |
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First period winner
Consensusover 1/3
Claude Haiku 4.5
60%
Under 1.5
First-period scoring in preseason tends to be conservative as teams are still building chemistry and starters may not have played a full gam...
Claude Haiku 4.5
60%
Under 1.5
First-period scoring in preseason tends to be conservative as teams are still building chemistry and starters may not have played a full gam...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
These teams tend to start games with measured play leading to moderate first-period totals. Training data through 2025-09 shows first period...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
These teams tend to start games with measured play leading to moderate first-period totals. Training data through 2025-09 shows first period...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
30%
Tie 0-0
With no live access, this uses training knowledge through 2025-09 and general NHL first-period patterns: rivalry games often start cautiousl...
DeepSeek V3
30%
Tie 0-0
With no live access, this uses training knowledge through 2025-09 and general NHL first-period patterns: rivalry games often start cautiousl...
Spread
ConsensusTampa Bay Lightning -1 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5
Spread pricing at -1.5 for a preseason home matchup is typical for the venue favorite, but preseason games are notably volatile and unpredic...
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5
Spread pricing at -1.5 for a preseason home matchup is typical for the venue favorite, but preseason games are notably volatile and unpredic...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning have covered the puck line at home more often than not in head-to-heads against Florida. Training data through 2025-09 supports a...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning have covered the puck line at home more often than not in head-to-heads against Florida. Training data through 2025-09 supports a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1
With no live access (training data through 2025-09), a -1 spread on a near pick'em rivalry game is risky. The Panthers' defensive structure...
DeepSeek V3
40%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1
With no live access (training data through 2025-09), a -1 spread on a near pick'em rivalry game is risky. The Panthers' defensive structure...
Match winner
ConsensusTampa Bay Lightning 3/3
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning
This is a preseason match (late September 2026), so neither team is at full strength and rosters are still being finalized. Historical conte...
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Tampa Bay Lightning
This is a preseason match (late September 2026), so neither team is at full strength and rosters are still being finalized. Historical conte...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning hold a strong home record against Florida in recent seasons and benefit from familiarity at Benchmark International Aren...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning hold a strong home record against Florida in recent seasons and benefit from familiarity at Benchmark International Aren...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning
No live tools were available for this build, so this is based on training data through 2025-09 plus schedule logic for a Sep 2026 preseason...
DeepSeek V3
44%
Tampa Bay Lightning
No live tools were available for this build, so this is based on training data through 2025-09 plus schedule logic for a Sep 2026 preseason...
Over / Under
Consensusover 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Under 5.5
Preseason games historically trend toward lower totals (typically 4.5–5.5 goals) because starters and top-six forwards play limited minutes...
Claude Haiku 4.5
62%
Under 5.5
Preseason games historically trend toward lower totals (typically 4.5–5.5 goals) because starters and top-six forwards play limited minutes...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
over
Rivalry games between these teams have trended toward higher scoring outputs due to offensive skill on both sides. Training data through 202...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
over
Rivalry games between these teams have trended toward higher scoring outputs due to offensive skill on both sides. Training data through 202...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
54%
Under 6.5
This is a training-knowledge estimate with no live access; both clubs have usually played lower-scoring, structured games against each other...
DeepSeek V3
54%
Under 6.5
This is a training-knowledge estimate with no live access; both clubs have usually played lower-scoring, structured games against each other...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Claude Haiku 4.5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Grok 4 Fast
Tampa Bay Lightning
Grok 4 Fast
Tampa Bay Lightning
DeepSeek V3
Tampa Bay Lightning
DeepSeek V3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Refresh the read
Early readRe-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.
Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.
Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
e2cfc921b4ce0713…
- Kickoff
- Thu, Sep 24 · 23:00 GMT+0200
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First period winner
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_period
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 47835,
"sport": "ice-hockey",
"venue": "Benchmark International Arena",
"league": "NHL",
"starts_at": "2026-09-24T23:00:00+02:00",
"starts_at_human": "Thu, 24 Sep 2026 21:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Florida Panthers",
"home": "Tampa Bay Lightning"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Confirm the starting goaltender and their recent save% — a backup or a cold starter swings the line and total.",
"Special teams decide tight games: compare power-play and penalty-kill percentages.",
"Back-to-backs and travel cause goalie/skater fatigue — flag the schedule spot.",
"Weigh recent scoring trends and home/road splits; injuries to top-six forwards or a top pairing matter most."
],
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_period"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.