Football FIFA World Cup

Final 5 – 1

Sweden vs Tunisia

Final: 5 – 1

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 05:57 GMT+0000 71 picks recorded · 51 graded CLV 0.0% vs market close

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    88dcf7a0a1bbb4e2…

Kickoff: Mon, Jun 15 · 02:00 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 362,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "FIFA World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-15T02:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 02:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Tunisia",
        "home": "Sweden"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T05:59:38+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": {
            "away": 5,
            "draw": 3.6,
            "home": 1.98
        },
        "note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
        "extra_markets": {
            "h2h": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2.88,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.75,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.35,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.93,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.45,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.1,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.88,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.05,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.3,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.47,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.27,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.6,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.5,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.98,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.57,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.36,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.94,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.33,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.47,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.42,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.33,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.94,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.92,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.75,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.82,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.86,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.36,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.9,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.3,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.4,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.2,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.83,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.6,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 5,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.45,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.75,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 1.82,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.5,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                }
            ],
            "totals": [
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 2.24,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2,
                    "price": 1.71,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.69,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.25,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.62,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.12,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 1.5,
                    "price": 3,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 1.5,
                    "price": 1.38,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.69,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.2,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.7,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.18,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.64,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.16,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.7,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.18,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.65,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.18,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.63,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.14,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.62,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.2,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 1.67,
                    "outcome": "Under"
                },
                {
                    "point": 2.5,
                    "price": 2.23,
                    "outcome": "Over"
                }
            ],
            "h2h_lay": [
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 3.65,
                    "outcome": "Draw"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 4.6,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": null,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                }
            ],
            "spreads": [
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.93,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.93,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.95,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.87,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.91,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 2,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.98,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0,
                    "price": 3.08,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0,
                    "price": 1.39,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.89,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.88,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                },
                {
                    "point": 0.5,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Tunisia"
                },
                {
                    "point": -0.5,
                    "price": 1.85,
                    "outcome": "Sweden"
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

Featured · open arena

7 markets · 11 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 7 markets · click a row to see reasoning

High Mid Low

Model	Both teams to score ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Asian handicap ?	Over / Under ? book: 2.5 · Over 45%	Spread ? book: Sweden -0.5	Match winner ? book: Sweden 51%	Correct score ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 32-54 -29.9u	54% No ~1.87 L	22% Draw / Sweden	50% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	56% Under ~1.65 L	66% Tunisia +1 ~1.75	50% Sweden ~1.98 W	18% 1-0 L
Both teams to score ? 54% No Tunisia's defence is the key variable: the Eagles of Carthage did not ship a single goal in qualifying and Lamouchi's structure makes them h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +0.5% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 22% Draw / Sweden World Cup openers, especially against compact opposition like Tunisia, often see the favourite struggle early before breaking through. Tunis... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Asian handicap ? 50% Sweden -0.5 Asian -0.5/+0.5 essentially mirrors the moneyline excluding the draw. Opta's 52.3% Sweden win probability aligns with bookmaker pricing of ~... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -5.6% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Over / Under ? 56% Under Bookmakers strongly favour Under 2.5 (≈1.65 vs 2.18 for Over), reflecting Tunisia's defensive structure. Lamouchi's Tunisia side is discipli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.65 Edge: -4.6% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Spread ? 66% Tunisia +1 Sweden winning by 2+ goals is a tall ask against a defensively structured Tunisia side that conceded zero goals in qualifying. Tunisia rely... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.75 Edge: +8.9% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Match winner ? 50% Sweden Opta's model gives Sweden a 52.3% win probability against Tunisia's 22.7%, and bookmakers price Sweden around 1.85-1.98. Graham Potter can u... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: -0.5% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Correct score ? 18% 1-0 A low-scoring Sweden win is the modal outcome given Tunisia's defensive solidity and the cagey nature of openers. Tunisia did not concede in... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 31-55 -28.7u	55% No ~1.87 L	22% Draw / Sweden	47% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	58% Under 2.5 ~1.84 L	60% Tunisia +1 ~1.75	47% Sweden ~1.98 W	14% 1-0 L
Both teams to score ? 55% No Tunisia's attacking output is limited — they rely heavily on Hannibal Mejbri who is a doubt for this match, and they managed only 22 goals a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +1.5% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 22% Draw / Sweden World Cup openers typically see cautious first halves as both teams assess each other. Tunisia's defensive setup should keep the game scorel... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Asian handicap ? 47% Sweden -0.5 The Asian handicap at -0.5 is essentially the same as picking Sweden to win outright. Sweden's attacking talent with Gyökeres and Isak gives... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -8.6% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Over / Under ? 58% Under 2.5 Tunisia kept 10 clean sheets in qualifying and built their identity around defensive solidity under both Trabelsi and Lamouchi. World Cup gr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.84 Edge: +3.6% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Spread ? 60% Tunisia +1 While Sweden are favorites, a one-goal spread is tight in a World Cup opener between two organized sides. Tunisia's defensive record in qual... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.75 Edge: +2.9% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Match winner ? 47% Sweden Sweden have the superior individual talent with Gyökeres and Isak leading the attack, and qualified through dramatic playoff wins showing st... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: -3.5% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Correct score ? 14% 1-0 Given Tunisia's defensive record and the cagey nature of World Cup openers, low-scoring outcomes dominate the probability distribution. A 1-... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 5-3 -1.9u	Claude Opus 4.8 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 234-279 -217.2u	60% No ~1.87 L	28% Draw / Sweden	55% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	58% Under ~1.65 L	42% Sweden -1 ~2.33	56% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 60% No Sweden's defense is structurally sound enough to keep a clean sheet against Tunisia, who tend to be cautious in attack at World Cup level. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +6.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 28% Draw / Sweden Sweden/Sweden (leading at halftime and maintaining the win) is the single most probable HT/FT combination given Sweden's overall match edge,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Sweden -0.5 The Asian handicap of -0.5 simply requires Sweden to win the match outright, which aligns with the h2h prediction at roughly 55% probability... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -0.6% Over / Under ? 58% Under World Cup group stage openers between a European side and an African qualifier tend toward cautious, defensively organized affairs, particul... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.65 Edge: -2.6% Spread ? 42% Sweden -1 Covering a -1 handicap requires Sweden to win by 2 or more, which is achievable but not the most likely scenario for a cautious World Cup op... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.33 Edge: -0.9% Match winner ? 56% Sweden Sweden are a consistent UEFA nation with strong tactical discipline and reliable qualifying campaigns, historically superior to Tunisia in h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +5.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 271-311 -261.0u	64% No ~1.87 L	48% Sweden / Sweden	62% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	58% Under 2.5 ~1.84 L	55% Sweden -1 ~2.33	62% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 64% No Tunisia's limited attacking potency and Sweden's defensive resilience make a mutual goal scenario unlikely in a group-stage environment. Tun... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +10.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 48% Sweden / Sweden Half-time/full-time Sweden–Sweden (Sweden to be leading at HT and win at FT) is the single most likely outcome given Sweden's superiority. H... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 62% Sweden -0.5 Asian handicap at -0.5 (Sweden must win outright) aligns with Sweden's quality and favorite status. The consensus odds (~1.88–1.93) offer mo... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: +6.4% Over / Under ? 58% Under 2.5 World Cup group-stage matches frequently settle under 2.5 goals due to cautious tactical play and defensive organization. Both teams will pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.84 Edge: +3.6% Spread ? 55% Sweden -1 Sweden's quality edge makes a one-goal margin achievable, though not dominant. At consensus odds around 1.88–1.93, the proposition is fairly... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.33 Edge: +12.1% Match winner ? 62% Sweden Sweden is a stronger footballing nation with superior depth, established World Cup experience, and higher-ranked FIFA standing compared to T... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +11.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 4-0 +0.0u	GPT-5 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 82-63 +7.3u	58% No ~1.87 L	38% Draw / Sweden	55% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	62% Under 2.5 ~1.84 L	35% Sweden -1 ~7.69	56% Sweden ~1.98 W	24% 1-0 L
Both teams to score ? 58% No Tunisia's defensive discipline in qualifying and Lamouchi's pragmatic approach make a clean sheet for one side plausible; Sweden can score b... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +4.5% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 38% Draw / Sweden Openers often start cautiously so a halftime draw is probable; Sweden's quality and second-half depth make a Sweden turnaround the most like... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Asian handicap ? 55% Sweden -0.5 Asian -0.5 gives a simple win/no-win split; Sweden's superior forward options and market positioning make a straight Sweden win the likelies... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -0.6% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Over / Under ? 62% Under 2.5 Tunisia's tournament identity under Lamouchi is defensive and low-scoring and many previews flag a tight opener; Sweden have attacking firep... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.84 Edge: +7.7% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Spread ? 35% Sweden -1 Sweden have the attacking personnel to win by a two-goal margin, but Tunisia's defensive shape and the low-scoring tournament-opener context... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 7.69 Edge: +22.0% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Match winner ? 56% Sweden Bookmakers and previews consistently make Sweden the clear favorite thanks to superior attacking quality (Isak + Gyökeres) and deeper Europe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +5.5% 🔍 researched 7 sources cited Correct score ? 24% 1-0 Consensus previews most commonly predict a tight Sweden win (many tip 1-0); Tunisia's defensive approach and the game stakes make a single-m... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 130-141 -98.2u	60% no ~1.87 L	50% Sweden / Sweden	50% Sweden ~3.12	55% under ~1.65 L	50% Sweden ~3.12 W	52% Sweden ~1.98 W	40% 1-0 L
Both teams to score ? 60% no Both teams have demonstrated strong defensive capabilities in recent matches. Sweden has conceded an average of 1.27 goals per game over the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +6.5% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 50% Sweden / Sweden Given Sweden's attacking capabilities and Tunisia's defensive strengths, a narrow lead for Sweden at both halftime and fulltime is plausible... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Asian handicap ? 50% Sweden Given the evenly matched nature of the teams and the low-scoring expectation, a one-goal margin of victory is plausible. Sweden's home advan... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 3.12 Edge: +17.9% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% under Both teams have demonstrated strong defensive capabilities in recent matches. Sweden has conceded an average of 1.27 goals per game over the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.65 Edge: -5.6% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Spread ? 50% Sweden Given the evenly matched nature of the teams and the low-scoring expectation, a one-goal margin of victory is plausible. Sweden's home advan... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 3.12 Edge: +17.9% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Match winner ? 52% Sweden Sweden has a superior head-to-head record against Tunisia, leading 2-1-1 in previous encounters. Their attacking prowess, especially with pl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +1.5% 🔍 researched 6 sources cited Correct score ? 40% 1-0 Considering Sweden's attacking capabilities and Tunisia's defensive strengths, a narrow 1-0 victory for Sweden is plausible. ([forebet.com](... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	o3 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 1-3 -3.0u	Grok 4.3 hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 255-274 -176.2u	51% Yes ~2.15 W	38% Sweden / Sweden	53% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	52% Over ~2.18 W	49% Sweden ~1.47 W	54% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 51% Yes Tunisia often scores in major tournaments while Sweden concedes occasionally. No live data available so this is based purely on training kno... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.15 Edge: +4.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 38% Sweden / Sweden Sweden expected to control the match from the start. No live data available so this is based purely on training knowledge through 2023. Lead... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 53% Sweden -0.5 Sweden is the clear favorite on paper. No live data available so this is based purely on training knowledge through 2023. Asian handicap -0.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -2.6% Over / Under ? 52% Over World Cup openers frequently produce goals. No live data available so this is based purely on training knowledge through 2023. Sweden attack... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.18 Edge: +6.1% Spread ? 49% Sweden Sweden favored but -1 spread is tight given Tunisia resilience. No live data available so this is based purely on training knowledge through... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.47 Edge: -19.0% Match winner ? 54% Sweden Sweden has historically been the stronger side with better FIFA ranking and squad depth than Tunisia. No live data available so this is base... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +3.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 4-0 +0.0u	Gemini 3.1 Pro hasn't run on this match yet. Unlock this model →
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 28-57 -34.7u	55% no ~1.87 L	35% Draw / Sweden	48% Tunisia +0.5 ~2.25 L	60% under ~1.65 L	45% Draw ~3.12	52% Sweden ~1.98 W	22% 1-0 L
Both teams to score ? 55% no Sweden have not kept a clean sheet in their last 11 matches, which suggests a 'yes' pick. However, Tunisia's attack is very poor, having bee... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +1.5% 7 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 35% Draw / Sweden This prediction aligns with a cagey opening half followed by Sweden's superior quality breaking the deadlock in the second half. Tunisia are... Unlock reasoning · Pro 7 sources cited Asian handicap ? 48% Tunisia +0.5 While I lean towards a narrow Sweden win, there's value in backing Tunisia to cover the +0.5 handicap. Sweden's form has been shaky, and the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.25 Edge: +3.6% 7 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% under This is the opening World Cup match for both teams, which typically leads to cagey, low-scoring affairs as neither side wants to start with... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.65 Edge: -0.6% 7 sources cited Spread ? 45% Draw A narrow Sweden victory seems the most plausible outcome, making the draw on a -1 spread a strong candidate. Sweden's attack is potent but t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 3.12 Edge: +12.9% 7 sources cited Match winner ? 52% Sweden Sweden possesses superior attacking quality with Premier League stars Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, which should be the difference mak... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +1.5% 7 sources cited Correct score ? 22% 1-0 A 1-0 win for Sweden aligns with all the key factors: Sweden's attacking edge, Tunisia's defensive focus and toothless attack, and the likel... Unlock reasoning · Pro 7 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 213-267 -234.0u	65% No ~1.87 L	30% Draw / Sweden	55% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	62% Under 2.5 Goals ~1.84 L	35% Draw (Sweden wins by exactly 1 goal) ~1.15	55% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 65% No Given Sweden's strong defense and Tunisia's likely strategy of defending deep and counter-attacking, it's more probable that at least one te... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +11.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 30% Draw / Sweden World Cup group stage openers frequently feature cautious starts, with teams unwilling to take early risks, leading to a goalless or low-sco... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Sweden -0.5 Sweden is widely considered the stronger team and the outright favorite in this encounter based on general footballing strength from my trai... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -0.6% Over / Under ? 62% Under 2.5 Goals Both Sweden and Tunisia are known for their defensive organization, and goals often come at a premium in their matches. World Cup group stag... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.84 Edge: +7.7% Spread ? 35% Draw (Sweden wins by exactly 1 goal) While Sweden is favored, Tunisia's defensive setup and the nature of a World Cup group game suggest a dominant performance by Sweden is unli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.15 Edge: -52.0% Match winner ? 55% Sweden Based on historical performance and general team strength from my training data through 2025-09, Sweden typically holds an advantage over Tu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +4.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 200-280 -204.8u	58% no ~1.87 L	48% home_home	60% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	55% under ~1.65 L	55% Sweden ~3.12 W	60% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 58% no Given the tactical approaches of both teams, it's unlikely both will find the back of the net. Sweden's defensive solidity and Tunisia's str... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +4.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 48% home_home Sweden is expected to be the stronger team and likely to take a lead into halftime and maintain it through the second half. While a draw at... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% Sweden -0.5 Sweden is the favored side, and a -0.5 handicap reflects this. Based on historical performance and general team strength, Sweden is more lik... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: +4.4% Over / Under ? 55% under Both Sweden and Tunisia tend to play defensively, especially in tournament settings. Historically, their matches have often been low-scoring... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.65 Edge: -5.6% Spread ? 55% Sweden While Sweden is favored, a -1 handicap is significant. However, considering Sweden's slightly superior attacking threat and Tunisia's defens... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 3.12 Edge: +22.9% Match winner ? 60% Sweden Sweden is generally a stronger footballing nation than Tunisia and has a better historical record. Based on training data, Sweden has a high... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +9.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 260-304 -178.4u	55% No ~1.87 L	40% Sweden / Sweden	55% Sweden -0.5 ~1.80 W	60% Under 2.5 ~1.84 L	35% Sweden -1 ~2.33	55% Sweden ~1.98 W	—
Both teams to score ? 55% No Both teams have decent defenses, and group stage matches often see one side fail to score. Sweden is likely to control possession and limit... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.87 Edge: +1.5% Half-time / Full-time ? 40% Sweden / Sweden Sweden is favored to lead at halftime and win the match, but early tournament nerves could lead to a cautious start. The most likely scenari... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Sweden -0.5 Sweden -0.5 is essentially a win bet without the draw. Given Sweden's overall quality edge and Tunisia's tendency to struggle against Europe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.80 Edge: -0.6% Over / Under ? 60% Under 2.5 World Cup group openers often start cautiously, and both Sweden and Tunisia tend to play compact defensive structures. Sweden's recent match... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.84 Edge: +5.7% Spread ? 35% Sweden -1 A -1 spread for Sweden is aggressive given Tunisia's resilience in one-off matches. While Sweden should win, covering a one-goal margin is l... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 2.33 Edge: -7.9% Match winner ? 55% Sweden Sweden is the stronger side historically, with a higher FIFA ranking and deeper World Cup pedigree. Despite limited recent matchup data, Swe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Odds: 1.98 Edge: +4.5% Correct score ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	No 7/11	Draw / Sweden 6/11	Sweden -0.5 9/11	Under 2.5 4/11	Sweden -1 4/11	Sweden 11/11	1-0 5/5
Bookmaker line	—	—	—	2.5 · Over 45%	Sweden -0.5	Sweden 51%	—

Ⓟ

Polymarket: tournament odds

Implied probability · live

What real money is betting on each team to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.

Sweden

to win World Cup

0.5%

Tunisia

to win World Cup

0.1%

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Bookmaker odds

51 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book	Sweden	Draw	Tunisia
Pinnacle ↗	1.93	3.52	4.32
Draftkings ↗	1.91	3.50	4.20
Fanduel ↗	1.91	3.40	4.30
Betmgm	1.85	3.40	4.33
William Hill	1.85	3.30	4.20
Betfair Exchange UK	1.98	3.60	4.50
Betfair Exchange EU	1.98	3.60	4.50
Betanysports	1.91	3.47	4.27
Betclic FR	1.87	3.47	4.40
Betfair UK	1.83	2.88	3.75
Betfred	1.83	3.40	4.33
BetOnline	1.93	3.50	4.35
Betrivers	1.82	3.45	4.75
Betsson	1.92	3.45	4.40
Betus	1.87	3.50	4.45
Betvictor	1.90	3.30	4.40
Betway	1.88	3.40	4.20
Bovada	1.91	3.50	4.30
Boylesports	1.83	3.40	4.20
Casumo	1.82	3.45	4.75
Codere It	1.91	3.40	4.30
Coolbet	1.93	3.53	4.55
Coral	1.85	3.40	4.33
Everygame	1.90	3.50	4.33
Fanatics	1.83	3.50	4.50
Grosvenor	1.80	3.40	4.60
Gtbets	1.94	3.42	4.33
Ladbrokes	1.85	3.40	4.33
Leovegas	1.82	3.45	4.75
Leovegas Se	1.82	3.45	4.75
Livescorebet	1.79	3.35	4.60
LowVig	1.93	3.50	4.35
Marathonbet	1.89	3.54	4.33
Matchbook	1.98	3.60	4.50
MyBookie	1.90	3.36	4.20
Nordicbet	1.92	3.45	4.40
Onexbet	1.94	3.57	4.36
Paddy Power	1.90	3.40	4.20
Pmu	1.79	3.35	4.60
Skybet	1.91	3.30	4.20
Smarkets	1.97	3.55	4.40
Sport888	1.85	3.30	4.00
Tipico	1.87	3.40	4.40
Unibet	1.87	3.50	4.45
Unibet Nl	1.83	3.55	4.90
Unibet Se	1.85	3.60	5.00
Unibet	1.90	3.40	4.25
Virginbet	1.79	3.35	4.60
Williamhill	1.85	3.40	4.05
Winamax	1.88	3.45	4.10
Winamax	1.86	3.45	4.00

Book	Line	Over	Under
Pinnacle ↗	2.3	1.97	1.92
Betmgm	2.5	2.25	1.69
William Hill	2.5	2.20	1.62
Betanysports	1.5	1.38	3.00
BetOnline	2.0	1.71	2.24
Betrivers	2.5	2.18	1.65
Betsson	2.5	2.18	1.70
Betus	2.0	1.65	2.35
Bovada	2.5	2.20	1.69
Casumo	2.5	2.18	1.65
Codere It	2.5	2.12	1.62
Coolbet	2.5	2.26	1.73
Grosvenor	2.5	2.18	1.65
Gtbets	2.5	2.16	1.64
Leovegas	2.5	2.18	1.65
LowVig	2.0	1.71	2.24
MyBookie	2.5	2.14	1.63
Nordicbet	2.5	2.18	1.70
Onexbet	2.5	2.20	1.69
Pmu	2.5	2.14	1.61
Unibet Nl	2.5	2.18	1.65
Unibet Se	2.5	2.23	1.67

Book	Sweden	Tunisia
Pinnacle ↗	-0.5 @ 1.93	+0.5 @ 1.97
Betanysports	-0.5 @ 1.91	+0.5 @ 1.91
BetOnline	-0.5 @ 1.93	+0.5 @ 1.93
Betus	-0.5 @ 1.87	+0.5 @ 1.95
Bovada	-0.5 @ 1.89	+0.5 @ 1.93
Gtbets	-2.5 @ 7.25	+0.5 @ 1.89
LowVig	-0.5 @ 1.93	+0.5 @ 1.93
Matchbook	-0.5 @ 1.98	+0.5 @ 2.00
MyBookie	-0.5 @ 1.85	+0.5 @ 1.85
Onexbet	0.0 @ 1.39	0.0 @ 3.08

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Pro
0 tool calls · 7 sources

7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Opus 4.7
7 tool calls · 6 sources

6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Opus 4.6
21 tool calls · 7 sources

7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
GPT-5 Mini
49 tool calls · 7 sources

7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
7 tool calls · 6 sources

6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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