MLB

Upcoming · in 80h 46m

St.Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 18:15 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:49 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    1f8ee704cdf77947…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 28 · 18:15 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7573,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T18:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "St.Louis Cardinals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over 3.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 65-91 -45.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 67-82 -31.4u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 36-31 -13.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 299-338 -243.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 439-524 -428.8u	58% St.Louis Cardinals	54% Under 8.5	52% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5	56% St.Louis Cardinals	—
Match winner ? 58% St.Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals are historically the stronger franchise with more consistent playoff appearances and a stronger roster composition. This... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Under 8.5 Late June regular season baseball often features moderate-scoring games, with neither team playing in extreme weather conditions (based on t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 Cardinals are favored at home and should win by a small margin given superior organizational depth and mid-season consistency. A -1.5 spread... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% St.Louis Cardinals First-five-innings markets reward early offensive execution and strong starting pitching. Cardinals' organizational depth typically includes... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 30-18 -3.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 230-206 -66.0u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 372-373 -262.6u	55% Miami Marlins	60% over	55% Miami Marlins	55% Miami Marlins	—
Match winner ? 55% Miami Marlins The Marlins have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form shows a balanced... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities this season, with the Marlins averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Cardinals 4.4. Given... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Miami Marlins The Marlins' recent form and road performance suggest they can cover the -1 spread. Their pitching staff's effectiveness may also contribute... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Miami Marlins The Marlins' starting pitchers have been more effective in the early innings, which could give them an advantage in the first five innings.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 17-11 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 48-36 -1.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 414-424 -241.1u	58% St.Louis Cardinals	52% over	51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5	55% St.Louis Cardinals	—
Match winner ? 58% St.Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals have historically outperformed Miami Marlins at home. Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals with stronger pitchi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Miami Marlins games trend slightly higher scoring. Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals around 9 in similar matchups.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 Home field edge for Cardinals expected to produce at least a two-run margin. Training data through 2025-09 supports Cardinals covering modes... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% St.Louis Cardinals Early innings favor Cardinals starters based on past seasons. Training data through 2025-09 shows St. Louis holding leads after five frames... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 37-42 -10.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 63-97 -57.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 406-450 -359.0u	55% St.Louis Cardinals	53% Under 8.5	51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5	56% St.Louis Cardinals	—
Match winner ? 55% St.Louis Cardinals Based on historical MLB trends and typical team performances in my training data through 2025-09, the St. Louis Cardinals generally hold a s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Under 8.5 Predicting the total runs without specific pitching matchups or weather conditions for 2026-06-28 relies on general MLB scoring averages fro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 Aligning with the H2H prediction, favoring the St. Louis Cardinals to win by more than 1.5 runs at home is a reasonable expectation from my... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% St.Louis Cardinals The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Cardinals historically... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 380-484 -345.4u	55% Miami Marlins	53% over	51% Miami Marlins	—	54% over
Match winner ? 55% Miami Marlins The Miami Marlins are showing a slightly better recent form and have a historically competitive edge over the St. Louis Cardinals in head-to... Unlock reasoning · Pro 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 53% over Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and a potential for a high-scoring game based on historical trends for similar matchups, the... Unlock reasoning · Pro 4 sources cited Spread ? 51% Miami Marlins The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to be a strong home team, but the spread of -1.5 indicates a need for them to win by at least two runs.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 3.5 ? 54% over In the first five innings, we anticipate a competitive start from both offenses. The Miami Marlins tend to start games aggressively, and the... Unlock reasoning · Pro 4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 456-512 -300.1u	60% St.Louis Cardinals	55% over 8.5	50% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5	55% St.Louis Cardinals	—
Match winner ? 60% St.Louis Cardinals The Cardinals have a stronger overall roster and home-field advantage at Busch Stadium. The Marlins are in a rebuilding phase and historical... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over 8.5 Both teams have mediocre pitching staffs based on 2025 data, and the Cardinals' offense at home tends to produce runs. The total is likely t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 The Cardinals are favored to win but not necessarily by multiple runs. Miami's pitching can keep games close, and St. Louis's bullpen has be... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% St.Louis Cardinals The Cardinals' starting pitching is slightly better than the Marlins', and they have home-field advantage early in the game. Miami's offense... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 3.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	St.Louis Cardinals 4/6	over 3/6	St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 4/6	St.Louis Cardinals 4/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
St.Louis Cardinals 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% St.Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals are historically the stronger franchise with more consistent playoff appearances and a stronger roster composition. This...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form shows a balanced...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 58% St.Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals have historically outperformed Miami Marlins at home. Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals with stronger pitchi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% St.Louis Cardinals

Based on historical MLB trends and typical team performances in my training data through 2025-09, the St. Louis Cardinals generally hold a s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins are showing a slightly better recent form and have a historically competitive edge over the St. Louis Cardinals in head-to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

4 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 60% St.Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have a stronger overall roster and home-field advantage at Busch Stadium. The Marlins are in a rebuilding phase and historical...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 8.5

Late June regular season baseball often features moderate-scoring games, with neither team playing in extreme weather conditions (based on t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities this season, with the Marlins averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Cardinals 4.4. Given...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Miami Marlins games trend slightly higher scoring. Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals around 9 in similar matchups....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5

Predicting the total runs without specific pitching matchups or weather conditions for 2026-06-28 relies on general MLB scoring averages fro...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and a potential for a high-scoring game based on historical trends for similar matchups, the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

4 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have mediocre pitching staffs based on 2025 data, and the Cardinals' offense at home tends to produce runs. The total is likely t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5

Cardinals are favored at home and should win by a small margin given superior organizational depth and mid-season consistency. A -1.5 spread...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins' recent form and road performance suggest they can cover the -1 spread. Their pitching staff's effectiveness may also contribute...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5

Home field edge for Cardinals expected to produce at least a two-run margin. Training data through 2025-09 supports Cardinals covering modes...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5

Aligning with the H2H prediction, favoring the St. Louis Cardinals to win by more than 1.5 runs at home is a reasonable expectation from my...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Miami Marlins

The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to be a strong home team, but the spread of -1.5 indicates a need for them to win by at least two runs....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

4 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 50% St.Louis Cardinals -1.5

The Cardinals are favored to win but not necessarily by multiple runs. Miami's pitching can keep games close, and St. Louis's bullpen has be...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
St.Louis Cardinals 4/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% St.Louis Cardinals

First-five-innings markets reward early offensive execution and strong starting pitching. Cardinals' organizational depth typically includes...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Miami Marlins

The Marlins' starting pitchers have been more effective in the early innings, which could give them an advantage in the first five innings....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 55% St.Louis Cardinals

Early innings favor Cardinals starters based on past seasons. Training data through 2025-09 shows St. Louis holding leads after five frames...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% St.Louis Cardinals

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Cardinals historically...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 55% St.Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' starting pitching is slightly better than the Marlins', and they have home-field advantage early in the game. Miami's offense...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 3.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% over

In the first five innings, we anticipate a competitive start from both offenses. The Miami Marlins tend to start games aggressively, and the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

4 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.