St.Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins
Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
e5f66050b9226035…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 27 · 23:15 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7062,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-27T23:15:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Miami Marlins",
"home": "St.Louis Cardinals"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-24T05:51:15+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
54%
Under 8.5 |
52%
Under 4.5 |
58%
St.Louis Cardinals |
55%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Under 8.5 Baseball totals in the 8-9 range typically lean slightly under, particularly in late June when both teams may be managing fatigue and pitch...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Under 4.5 Early-inning scoring in baseball tends to be lower than full-game totals, with most runs coming in the 6th+ innings as bullpens tire. A Card...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
St.Louis Cardinals The Cardinals have historically been a stronger franchise with better recent playoff success and roster depth compared to the Marlins. Witho...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 Home-field advantage and Cardinals organizational strength support a modest run-line edge, though the Marlins are competitive enough to stay... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
over |
55%
St.Louis Cardinals |
60%
St.Louis Cardinals |
60%
St.Louis Cardinals |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher-scoring matchup. The over 2.5 total runs is a reasonable e...
🔍 researched
2 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
St.Louis Cardinals The Cardinals' starting pitcher has a strong first-inning ERA, and their offense tends to start games aggressively, making them likely to le...
🔍 researched
2 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
St.Louis Cardinals The St. Louis Cardinals have a strong home record and have historically performed well against the Miami Marlins. Their recent form and home...
🔍 researched
2 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
St.Louis Cardinals With the Cardinals favored to win, covering a -1 spread is likely, especially given their home advantage and recent form.
🔍 researched
2 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
over |
57%
St.Louis Cardinals |
61%
St.Louis Cardinals |
52%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB scoring in summer night games hovers near 8.5-9 runs. Both lineups project average offen...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
57%
St.Louis Cardinals Training data through 2025-09 indicates home starters hold a modest edge in the opening five frames against weaker lineups. Miami's early of...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
61%
St.Louis Cardinals Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals typically favored at home against weaker road sides like the Marlins. Miami's offense has hist...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals win by multiple runs slightly more than half the time versus sub-.500 road teams. Marlins bull... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
53%
Under 8.5 |
58%
St.Louis Cardinals |
60%
St.Louis Cardinals |
55%
Miami Marlins +1.5 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under 8.5 Without specific pitching matchups or lineup information for June 2026, predicting game totals is challenging. Historically, Busch Stadium c...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
58%
St.Louis Cardinals The first five innings largely reflect the strength of the starting pitchers and early offensive output. Given the Cardinals' historical con...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
St.Louis Cardinals Based on historical performance data through my last training update, the St.Louis Cardinals generally project as the stronger team and bene...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Miami Marlins +1.5 While the Cardinals are favored to win outright based on historical strength, baseball games are frequently decided by one run. The +1.5 run... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Over 8.5 |
50%
St.Louis Cardinals |
65%
St.Louis Cardinals |
45%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 Both bullpens have been vulnerable, and the Cardinals' lineup is capable of scoring runs at home. The Marlins have shown occasional power. W...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
50%
St.Louis Cardinals First five innings are more dependent on starting pitchers, but without specific lineup/rotation info, it's a coin flip. Cardinals may have...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
St.Louis Cardinals The Cardinals have a strong home advantage at Busch Stadium and historically perform well against the Marlins. Miami's offense has been inco...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
45%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 The Cardinals are favored but covering the -1.5 run line is uncertain; Miami's bullpen has kept games close recently. Low confidence because... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
over 2/5 |
St.Louis Cardinals 4/5 |
St.Louis Cardinals 5/5 |
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 3/5 |
|
Over / Under
Consensusover 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Under 8.5
Baseball totals in the 8-9 range typically lean slightly under, particularly in late June when both teams may be managing fatigue and pitch...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher-scoring matchup. The over 2.5 total runs is a reasonable e...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB scoring in summer night games hovers near 8.5-9 runs. Both lineups project average offen...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Under 8.5
Without specific pitching matchups or lineup information for June 2026, predicting game totals is challenging. Historically, Busch Stadium c...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Over 8.5
Both bullpens have been vulnerable, and the Cardinals' lineup is capable of scoring runs at home. The Marlins have shown occasional power. W...
First 5 innings
ConsensusSt.Louis Cardinals 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Under 4.5
Early-inning scoring in baseball tends to be lower than full-game totals, with most runs coming in the 6th+ innings as bullpens tire. A Card...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
St.Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals' starting pitcher has a strong first-inning ERA, and their offense tends to start games aggressively, making them likely to le...
Grok 4 Fast
57%
St.Louis Cardinals
Training data through 2025-09 indicates home starters hold a modest edge in the opening five frames against weaker lineups. Miami's early of...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
St.Louis Cardinals
The first five innings largely reflect the strength of the starting pitchers and early offensive output. Given the Cardinals' historical con...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
50%
St.Louis Cardinals
First five innings are more dependent on starting pitchers, but without specific lineup/rotation info, it's a coin flip. Cardinals may have...
Match winner
ConsensusSt.Louis Cardinals 5/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
St.Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have historically been a stronger franchise with better recent playoff success and roster depth compared to the Marlins. Witho...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
St.Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have a strong home record and have historically performed well against the Miami Marlins. Their recent form and home...
Grok 4 Fast
61%
St.Louis Cardinals
Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals typically favored at home against weaker road sides like the Marlins. Miami's offense has hist...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
St.Louis Cardinals
Based on historical performance data through my last training update, the St.Louis Cardinals generally project as the stronger team and bene...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
65%
St.Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have a strong home advantage at Busch Stadium and historically perform well against the Marlins. Miami's offense has been inco...
Spread
ConsensusSt.Louis Cardinals -1.5 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5
Home-field advantage and Cardinals organizational strength support a modest run-line edge, though the Marlins are competitive enough to stay...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
St.Louis Cardinals
With the Cardinals favored to win, covering a -1 spread is likely, especially given their home advantage and recent form.
Grok 4 Fast
52%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5
Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals win by multiple runs slightly more than half the time versus sub-.500 road teams. Marlins bull...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Miami Marlins +1.5
While the Cardinals are favored to win outright based on historical strength, baseball games are frequently decided by one run. The +1.5 run...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
45%
St.Louis Cardinals -1.5
The Cardinals are favored but covering the -1.5 run line is uncertain; Miami's bullpen has kept games close recently. Low confidence because...
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
4 tool calls · 2 sources
2 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
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