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MLB
Awaiting result · 1072h 22m ago
SL

St. Louis CardinalsvsSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are a strong home team historically with solid fundamentals and mid-season momentum typically favoring division contenders. Th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have shown a strong performance on the road this season, while the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled at home. This tre...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals hold slight home edge in a neutral matchup between two middling clubs. Training data through 2025 shows St. Louis performing adequ...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% St. Louis Cardinals

Based on historical team performance and the home-field advantage typically associated with the St. Louis Cardinals, they are slightly favor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are projected to have a slight edge due to a stronger recent performance and a more favorable matchup against the Cardi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% St. Louis Cardinals

My training data (through 2025) shows the Cardinals have a strong home-field advantage. However, without live data on lineups or recent form...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both Cardinals and Padres feature capable offensive lineups with average run-scoring profiles. June baseball typically features fewer pitche...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses and have consistently exceeded 2.5 runs in recent games, indicating a high likelihood of a high-scoring game...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Typical MLB scoring environment favors slight lean to overs. Both lineups project average offense with limited pitching depth information av...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Given the general trend of MLB scoring and the offensive capabilities of both the Cardinals and Padres historically, a total of over 8.5 run...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams possess offenses capable of scoring, and the projected starting pitchers may struggle against them. The potential for a higher-sc...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Under 8.5

With no weather or pitching data, I assume a typical MLB game with average run production. Historical average suggests a balanced total, so...

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Spread

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% St. Louis Cardinals

A -1.5 spread for the Cardinals reflects market respect for the home team but also acknowledges the Padres' competitive tier. Given limited...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Diego Padres

Given the Padres' strong road performance and the Cardinals' home struggles, the Padres are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% St. Louis Cardinals

Home run-line value edges to Cardinals given venue familiarity. Limited 2026 roster data forces reliance on historical home performance patt...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Diego Padres +1.5

While the Cardinals might have a slight H2H edge, many baseball games are decided by a single run, making the +1.5 spread for the underdog a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Diego Padres

Given the slight projected edge for the Padres in head-to-head, covering a small spread is considered plausible. The prediction accounts for...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

Home teams win by multiple runs less often than single-run margins. The Cardinals are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% St. Louis Cardinals

First-five-innings markets typically favor the home team and starting pitcher matchups, where the Cardinals' home-field advantage and likely...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Diego Padres

The Padres have been strong in the first five innings on the road, while the Cardinals have struggled in early innings at home, suggesting a...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% St. Louis Cardinals

Early-game advantage rests modestly with the home side. Starting pitcher matchups unavailable so default to venue and historical splits. Tra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% St. Louis Cardinals

The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers and early offensive bursts. Without specific 2026 starting pitcher information,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Diego Padres

The Padres' strong start to games, especially against pitchers they match up well against, gives them an advantage in the first five innings...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% St. Louis Cardinals

First five innings often favor the home team due to batting in the bottom of the first. Without specific pitcher data, I slightly lean Cardi...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

St. Louis Cardinals

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Diego Padres

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Diego Padres

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

St. Louis Cardinals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

St. Louis Cardinals

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

St. Louis Cardinals

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

St. Louis Cardinals

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 4bef82e5c96bbdfd…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 15 · 23:46 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5139,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-15T23:46:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 23:46:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Diego Padres",
        "home": "St. Louis Cardinals"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-15T05:45:29+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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