Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Busch Stadium
Upcoming · in 88h 48m
SL

St. Louis CardinalsvsPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Phillies' recent offensive momentum and Cardinals' defensive vulnerabilities (5.3 runs conceded/game) suggest a tight but slightly Philly-fa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 70% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

Taking the Phillies +1.5 run line (they lose by 1 or win) is good value because their rotation and lineup give them a better-than-coin-flip...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Considering the Phillies' slightly better recent form and the Cardinals' higher rest days, the Phillies are expected to cover the -1.5 sprea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% home_ -1.5

Home run-line value exists given the venue and typical Cardinals bullpen usage. Phillies have struggled covering on the road lately per hist...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% St. Louis Cardinals -1.5

While the Cardinals are favored at home, baseball games are often decided by narrow margins, making a spread bet challenging. However, if th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the Phillies' superior starting pitching and overall stronger season performance, they are favored to win by more than one run. While...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies are likely to win, but a -1.5 run line is a bigger ask. Their offense has been potent, but they've also been giving up many run...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over 8.5

Both teams show elevated offensive output in recent matches: Cardinals averaged 7.0 runs/game in their last 3, Phillies 3.6 in their last 5....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Both teams are starting quality pitchers (Cristopher Sánchez and a Cardinals mid-rotation starter such as Andre Pallante in the rotation mix...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have demonstrated a tendency to score and concede multiple runs in recent games. The Phillies have scored 18 runs and conceded 33...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Busch Stadium plays neutral to slightly hitter-friendly in summer. Both offenses have shown power in recent seasons and rest days favor more...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5

Busch Stadium is generally considered a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, which can depress total runs scored. Both teams historically feature...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While both pitchers are generally solid, the Phillies' offense has been potent, and the Cardinals have shown they can score runs in bunches,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

With both teams having had long rest, hitters may be fresh but pitchers might be sharp. However, the Phillies have scored 18 runs in their l...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals 2/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 4.5

The first five innings typically see fewer runs than full-game totals due to cold bats early and pitchers' command improving as they settle....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' recent form and the Cardinals' rest days suggest they may start strong in the first five innings. Their recent performance ind...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitcher edge and home lineup handedness favor Cardinals through five innings. Historical first-five data through 2025-09 shows home...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals, historically, are known for solid starting pitching and fundamental play that allows them to start games strong, es...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 4.5

Early runs are likely given the offensive showings in recent games for both teams. Starting pitchers may be sharp after rest but also might...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia enters with better recent momentum (2W in last 5 vs Cardinals' 1W in last 3) and a superior run differential despite defensive...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia enters this series with a slightly better record and a top-of-rotation arm (Cristopher Sánchez) listed among the Phillies' star...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have shown a slightly better recent form compared to the St. Louis Cardinals, with a 2W-0D-3L record in their last...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals hold home advantage at Busch Stadium and Phillies recent road form has been inconsistent. Training data through 2025-09 shows St....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% St. Louis Cardinals

Based on general baseball knowledge and historical team profiles, the St. Louis Cardinals typically leverage a strong home-field advantage a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are in better form and have a superior starting pitcher in Zack Wheeler compared to Miles Mikolas. The Phillies also hold a sig...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Training data through 2025 suggests the Phillies have been a stronger team overall, with a better lineup and starting pitching. The Cardinal...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

The early innings often set the tone, and both offenses have shown capability. Wheeler is strong, but Mikolas has been more hittable. The Ph...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

With expected frontline/mid-rotation starters beginning the game (Cristopher Sánchez and a Cardinals starter) and recent usage indicating st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Philadelphia Phillies

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Philadelphia Phillies

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

St. Louis Cardinals

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Philadelphia Phillies

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

St. Louis Cardinals

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 26eb76d7cdd158dc…
Kickoff
Mon, Aug 10 · 23:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 22185,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Busch Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-10T23:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 10 Aug 2026 23:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "St. Louis Cardinals"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 3,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 33,
            "home": 58
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →