Shannel Butler vs Mayerlin Rivas
MRKickoff · Sun, Jun 14 · 18:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
06e4bb84858a08b9…
- Sport
- Sun, Jun 14 · 18:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · method_finish · goes_distance · round_group
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 4523,
"sport": "boxing",
"venue": null,
"league": "Boxing",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T19:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 19:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Mayerlin Rivas",
"home": "Shannel Butler"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-14T00:31:42+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 4.91,
"draw": 14,
"home": 1.29
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.2,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.5,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.19,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.91,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.2,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.5,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.21,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.61,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.21,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.61,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.21,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.61,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.21,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.61,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.21,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.61,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.27,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.69,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.22,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 14,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.25,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 13.2,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.29,
"outcome": "Shannel Butler"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Mayerlin Rivas"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 4.33,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 5.5,
"price": 1.17,
"outcome": "Over"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Shannel Butler 78% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
62%
Decision |
68%
Yes |
55%
Rounds 7–12 |
78%
Shannel Butler
~1.29
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
62%
Decision No explicit method_finish odds provided in the brief, so I infer from boxing match patterns and Butler's favourite status. Strong favourites...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
68%
Yes The distance market (typically does the fight go the full scheduled rounds) is inferred from the strong favourite status and the lack of dom...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Rounds 7–12 Without explicit round-group markets or fight duration data, I infer that if the match goes the distance (high probability above), and Butle...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
78%
Shannel Butler Shannel Butler is heavily favoured across all bookmakers with odds clustering around 1.20–1.29, implying a 77–83% win probability. Mayerlin...
Odds: 1.29
Edge: +0.5%
|
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
65%
Decision |
62%
Yes |
55%
Late |
78%
Shannel Butler
~1.29
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
65%
Decision Heavy favorites at this level typically bank rounds rather than risk early stoppages. Limited information on either fighter suggests a contr...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
62%
Yes Butler is expected to dominate without needing a finish given the large odds gap. Women's bouts at this stage frequently reach the final bel...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Late A points-oriented approach from the favorite makes a late-round stoppage or final-bell decision most probable. Early finishes are rare when...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
78%
Shannel Butler Butler is a heavy favorite in all listed odds lines reflecting superior skill and record. Training data through 2023 shows no credible threa...
Odds: 1.29
Edge: +0.5%
|
|||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
45%
Shannel Butler by Decision/Technical Decision |
67%
Yes |
45%
Shannel Butler by Decision |
73%
Shannel Butler
~1.29
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
45%
Shannel Butler by Decision/Technical Decision In female boxing, decisions are generally more common than knockouts. Given Shannel Butler's strong favorite status, a win by decision is th...
1 source cited
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
67%
Yes Combining the probabilities from the method of finish market, a decision victory for either fighter or a draw sums to a 67% chance the fight...
1 source cited
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
Shannel Butler by Decision Given the high probability of the fight going the distance and Shannel Butler being the strong favorite, a victory by decision for Butler is...
1 source cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
73%
Shannel Butler Based on the provided market consensus, Shannel Butler is a significant favorite with implied odds around 1.29. This suggests a clear advant...
Odds: 1.29
Edge: -4.5%
1 source cited
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
60%
KO/TKO |
60%
No |
45%
1-3 |
85%
Shannel Butler
~1.29
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
60%
KO/TKO Given Shannel Butler's favored status and power punching reputation (based on general boxing knowledge), a finish by KO/TKO is the most prob...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
60%
No The odds favor the fight not going the distance. This aligns with the prediction of a finish via KO/TKO. Shannel Butler's strong favorite st...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
45%
1-3 Considering Shannel Butler is a strong favorite and the prediction leans towards an early finish (KO/TKO), the most likely round group for t...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
85%
Shannel Butler Shannel Butler is the heavy favorite according to the provided odds. She has a superior record and is expected to win this bout. Mayerlin Ri...
Odds: 1.29
Edge: +7.5%
|
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
55%
KO/TKO |
55%
No |
40%
1-3 |
72%
Shannel Butler
~1.29
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
KO/TKO Butler has a high knockout rate in her career, and the Over 5.5 rounds line is very short, suggesting oddsmakers expect an early finish. Riv...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
55%
No Given Butler's power and the short Over 5.5 line, the implied probability of the fight going the distance is low. Rivas has gone the distanc...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
1-3 The market heavily favors an early finish, with Over 5.5 at 1.17 implying a stoppage within 6 rounds. The most likely round group is 1-3 giv...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
72%
Shannel Butler Shannel Butler is the heavy favorite with odds around 1.25, indicating strong market confidence. Butler likely has superior recent form and...
Odds: 1.29
Edge: -5.5%
|
|||||
|
Consensus |
Decision 2/6 |
Yes 3/6 |
1-3 2/6 |
Shannel Butler 6/6 |
|
|
Bookmaker line |
— |
— |
— |
Shannel Butler 78% |
|
Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis
Reverse-engineer the match
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Bookmaker odds
8 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Shannel Butler | Draw | Mayerlin Rivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 1.21 | — | 4.60 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 1.22 | — | 4.10 |
| Betfair UK | 1.25 | 14.00 | 4.33 |
| BetOnline | 1.20 | — | 4.50 |
| Betus | 1.25 | — | 4.00 |
| LowVig | 1.20 | — | 4.50 |
| Onexbet | 1.29 | 13.20 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25 | 14.00 | 4.33 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onexbet | 5.5 | 1.17 | 4.33 |
| Book | Shannel Butler | Mayerlin Rivas |
|---|
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Shannel Butler Mayerlin Rivas
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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0 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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