Seibu Lions vs Nippon Ham Fighters
Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 09:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
b64261edcedacda8…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 27 · 09:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7018,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "NPB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-27T09:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 09:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Nippon Ham Fighters",
"home": "Seibu Lions"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 1 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters |
60%
over |
65%
Nippon Ham Fighters +1.5 |
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters Nippon Ham Fighters have historically performed well against Seibu Lions, and recent training data suggests they have a slightly stronger ro...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over NPB games between these teams often produce moderate scoring. With no starting pitchers confirmed, typical league averages suggest over 7.5...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
65%
Nippon Ham Fighters +1.5 Nippon Ham Fighters are expected to be competitive, and a 1.5-run spread provides a safety margin. Their historical performance suggests the...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters First five innings often favor teams with stronger bullpens and early offensive production. Nippon Ham Fighters have a slight edge in early-... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Nippon Ham Fighters 1/1 |
over 1/1 |
Nippon Ham Fighters +1.5 1/1 |
Nippon Ham Fighters 1/1 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusNippon Ham Fighters 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have historically performed well against Seibu Lions, and recent training data suggests they have a slightly stronger ro...
Over / Under
Consensusover 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
60%
over
NPB games between these teams often produce moderate scoring. With no starting pitchers confirmed, typical league averages suggest over 7.5...
Spread
ConsensusNippon Ham Fighters +1.5 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
65%
Nippon Ham Fighters +1.5
Nippon Ham Fighters are expected to be competitive, and a 1.5-run spread provides a safety margin. Their historical performance suggests the...
First 5 innings
ConsensusNippon Ham Fighters 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Nippon Ham Fighters
First five innings often favor teams with stronger bullpens and early offensive production. Nippon Ham Fighters have a slight edge in early-...
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