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MLB Major League Baseball · T-Mobile Park
Upcoming · in 89h 53m
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Seattle Mariners

Both teams are in poor form (2-3 over last 5), but Seattle's home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park and slightly better run differential (+10...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Seattle Mariners

CBS and team previews list Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB) as the probable starters; Gilbert has been reliable at home and Seattl...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have a slight edge over the Seattle Mariners, considering their recent form and starting pitcher matchup. The Mariners ha...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Seattle Mariners

Mariners hold a slight home edge at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Rays recent form shows more offensive inconsistency while Mariners conce...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on historical team trends, the Mariners generally have strong pitching and home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park, which tends to favor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have a historical edge in head-to-head matchups against the Seattle Mariners. While both teams have similar recent form (...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Mariners have a slight edge at home with better recent form (scored 20, conceded 10 in last 5 vs...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5

Both teams have been inefficient offensively in their last five matches: Seattle scored 20 runs in 5 games (4.0 per game), Tampa scored 18 (...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Both probable starters are strikeout/weak-contact oriented arms (Rasmussen and Gilbert) and have season ERAs in the mid-to-low 3s; T-Mobile...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede runs in recent games. The starting pitchers' ERAs suggest potential for multiple runs,...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

Both clubs show low-scoring tendencies recently and T-Mobile Park suppresses offense. High rest days for both sides point to sharper pitchin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 7.5

T-Mobile Park is historically a pitcher-friendly venue, suppressing overall run scoring. Both teams generally feature strong pitching, and t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

The predicted weather in Seattle is favorable for hitting, with moderate temperatures and a light breeze. Both teams have capable offenses,...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Both teams have averaged around 4 runs per game recently, and Seattle's games have seen a combined 30 runs in their last 5. The park factors...

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Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5

Seattle's home-field advantage and marginally superior recent performance (net +10 runs vs Tampa's -3) justify a small favorite spread. Howe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

This is expected to be a close pitching matchup: Gilbert gets the home start but Rasmussen is capable of a quality outing, and Rays recent f...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are expected to win, but the game's competitiveness suggests a close scoreline. The spread of -1.5 indicates a need for a decisive...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Seattle Mariners

Home field and defensive metrics give Mariners a narrow edge on the run line. Rays bullpen usage trends suggest vulnerability late. Training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

While I favor the Mariners to win straight up due to home advantage and pitching, T-Mobile Park often leads to low-scoring affairs where gam...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Tampa Bay Rays

While the head-to-head record favors the Rays, the Mariners have been strong at home. However, the Rays' slightly superior pitching and more...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Seattle Mariners

The run line at -1 for the Mariners is a coin flip given the competitive nature of both teams. Seattle's home advantage and slightly better...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-game totals typically track lower than full-game due to pitcher performance in the first five frames and bullpen ramp-up. Both teams'...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Seattle Mariners

Gilbert's home outings and the Mariners' lineup depth make Seattle slightly more likely to be ahead after five innings, but Rasmussen often...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' starting pitcher has demonstrated strong early-game performance, while the Mariners' starter has been more vulnerable in the first...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Seattle Mariners

Starting pitcher handedness and park factors favor Mariners in the opening innings. Rays lineup struggles against right-handers in recent sa...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 42% Seattle Mariners F5

Assuming the Mariners' starting pitcher aligns with the team's historical pitching strength and benefits from the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' starting pitching has been more consistent, and they have a slight edge in the early innings. The Rays' recent losses suggest...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The early game conditions are expected to be favorable for hitting. Both starting pitchers have shown some vulnerability in the early inning...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Seattle Mariners

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Seattle Mariners

56
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Tampa Bay Rays

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 6b4985012c62d2e7…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 8 · 01:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 21175,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "T-Mobile Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-08T01:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 08 Aug 2026 01:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Tampa Bay Rays",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 30,
            "home": 30
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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