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MLB Major League Baseball · T-Mobile Park
Awaiting result · 1000h 58m ago
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsMinnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks · 16 graded AIs split

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5 W

T-Mobile Park is one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly stadiums with a spacious outfield that suppresses home runs and extra-base hits. Seattle...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% under W

T-Mobile Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB and both probable starters are right-handers with recent quality starts (Kirb...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over L

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Twins averaging 5.6 runs per game and the Mariners averaging 5.2 runs per game over the past month...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

T-Mobile Park typically yields lower run totals. Both teams' recent scoring is moderate and equal rest suggests standard bullpen usage. Trai...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 W

Although the Twins' offense has been high-scoring recently, the Seattle Mariners' pitching staff has been exceptionally stingy, conceding on...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over L

Given the offensive strength of the Minnesota Twins and the potential for the Seattle Mariners to score at home, the game is likely to see a...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 68% Over 2.5

In baseball, the totals market refers to total runs. T-Mobile is pitcher-friendly but both teams have scored consistently (Twins 28 runs in...

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Bookmaker line: 7.5 · Over 51%

Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

The Twins' superior form (4W-1L, +12 run differential) warrants a small spread lean away, even in a pitcher-friendly park. However, the -1.5...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 51% home_ -1.5

A Seattle -1.5 (win by 2+) is marginal value because T-Mobile Park reduces run variance and Seattle's bullpen is superior; those two factors...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Minnesota Twins L

The Minnesota Twins have demonstrated strong performance recently, winning four of their last five games. Their starting pitcher has been ef...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Seattle Mariners

Home team receives the run-line advantage in a neutral park. Mariners' recent defensive form supports covering at home despite mixed results...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Seattle Mariners +1.5 W

While the Minnesota Twins are favored to win due to their strong offensive form, the Seattle Mariners' excellent pitching and the pitcher-fr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Minnesota Twins L

The Minnesota Twins' recent form and offensive consistency give them a strong chance to cover a -1.5 spread against the Seattle Mariners, wh...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Seattle Mariners -1

The run line is risky. Twins have strong form and scoring ability. While Mariners have home advantage, covering a -1 run line requires a two...

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Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins L

Minnesota enters with significantly superior recent form (4W-1L vs Seattle's 2W-3L over the last 5 matches) and has scored 28 runs on 16 con...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Seattle Mariners W

Seattle gets the edge at T-Mobile Park (a known pitcher-friendly stadium) and has a deeper, more reliable bullpen entering August; George Ki...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Minnesota Twins L

The Minnesota Twins have shown strong recent form with four wins in their last five games, including a 4-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Seattle Mariners W

Seattle hosts at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park with both teams on equal rest. Minnesota's recent form is slightly better but the Mariners'...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Minnesota Twins L

The Minnesota Twins enter this contest with a strong 4-1 recent form, scoring an impressive 28 runs in their last five games. While the Seat...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Minnesota Twins L

The Minnesota Twins have had a stronger recent form than the Seattle Mariners. While both teams are coming off rest days, the Twins' recent...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 57% Seattle Mariners W

The Twins have strong recent form at 4-1, but 24 days of rest likely disrupts rhythm. The Mariners are at home in T-Mobile Park, a pitcher-f...

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Bookmaker line: Seattle Mariners 60%

First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring (first five innings) in T-Mobile Park is typically suppressed by its pitcher-friendly design and wide outfield. Both te...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Seattle Mariners

Through five innings Seattle has a slight advantage: Kirby is experienced at home and likely to limit early scoring, and T-Mobile Park suppr...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have been strong in the early innings, averaging 3.2 runs in the first five innings over their last five games. Their st...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Seattle Mariners

Early innings often mirror overall home advantage at this park. Given lineups and rest, Seattle holds a slight edge through five. Based sole...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Draw

Without specific starting pitcher information, I lean towards a low-scoring start to the game. The Seattle Mariners' strong pitching combine...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Seattle Mariners

First five innings depend heavily on starting pitchers. With no specific starter info, a slight lean to the Mariners at home. T-Mobile tends...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score early in games, as indicated by the Twins' high run-scoring form and the Mariners' potential to s...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Minnesota Twins

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Twins

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Seattle Mariners

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Twins

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

57
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Minnesota Twins

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 1541–1634 · 49%
-1,392.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1904–2028 · 48%
-1,842.7u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1066–1149 · 48%
-986.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1883–2084 · 47%
-1,775.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1574–1830 · 46%
-1,628.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book Seattle Mariners Draw Minnesota Twins
Draftkings 1.68 — 2.22
Book Line Over Under
Draftkings 7.0 1.89 1.94
Book Seattle Mariners Minnesota Twins

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 5f0bbae391294b12…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 2 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 18534,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "T-Mobile Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-02T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 02 Aug 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Minnesota Twins",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 28,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 24,
            "home": 24
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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